Percentage Wise

Dave Paisley

So, can I interest you in baseball this week, despite the lure of the World Cup? Marlins vs. Phillies or Russia vs. Tunisia? Tough call, isn’t it? Can you really tear your eyes away from those 1 am 0-0 ties? Why am I asking so many questions? Yeah, my job is to answer them, not question your dedication to the US national soccer team. No, the one with guys, not the one that wins the tournament (c’mon, I’m kidding!)

Well anyway, ready or not, here comes the National League segment of report card week. If you’ve been paying attention (and not all bleary eyed from too much midnight soccer), you’ll remember that last week I compared how the AL clubs are performing relative to my pre-season predictions. Sure, that sounds conceited, but who else’s predictions am I going to use? Again, if you recall correctly (and I’m sure you do) you’ll recall that I show you how many wins I expect each team to win, what I projected their winning percentage to be, their current winning percentage and the difference between current and predicted winning percentage. Sure, it sounds like a lot, but it isn’t really. For instance, here’s the NL East:

Team	Pred W	Pred W%	Act W%	Diff
Atl	91	.560	.538	-.022
NYM	84	.521	.519	-.002
Fla	84	.517	.500	-.017
Mon	69	.425	.490	.065
Phi	82	.504	.412	-.092

No big shock that Atlanta and the Mets are on top, although it’s been a long struggle after poor starts and the Marlins are performing right on cue. The only anomalies are the Expos and Phillies, who have apparently swapped places. It should be noted that plus or minus three wins translates to about plus or minus 60 point of winning percentage at this stage of the season, and I consider that to be roughly the bounds of significance. In other words, the Braves, Mets and Marlins are all within a game or so of where I expected them to be.

The Expos were doing a lot better early, but appear to be drifting slowly down to their expected level. Their offense is proving to be quite productive, led by Vlad Guerrero and Jose Vidro, but the pitching has been somewhat dubious, despite the bright spots of Tomo Ohka, Javier Vazquez and Tony Armas Jr. The latter two have some odd vibe going. Armas has started 12 games and has a decision in every one, going 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA. Vazquez has also started 12 games, but has decisions in only five of them, for a 3-2 record with his a 3.34 ERA.

The Phillies collapse is easy to spot — being dead last in league ERA is a sure way to spell "last place" in any language, even what passes for language in south Philly. If it wasn’t for Vicente Padilla and (gasp!) Jose Mesa, the Phillies might be hopeless. The return of Robert Person should help, though, so maybe there’s hope after all.

Moving on to the Central division...

Team	Pred W	Pred W%	Act W%	Diff
Cin	74	.457	.588	.131
StL	91	.561	.577	.016
Pit	65	.401	.451	.050
Hou	91	.561	.431	-.130
ChN	95	.586	.400	-.186
Mil	66	.407	.327	-.080

We see all going according to plan, except for those pesky Reds and Cubs. Oh, and Milwaukee is performing much worse than expected, but isn’t that really just a bonus?

The Reds were supposed to have a poor pitching staff (according to me, remember), but in fact they’ve been pretty good, led by Elmer Dessens and Chris Reitsma. Will that last forever? Don’t bet on it. Their starters have very low decision ratios, which means that for a lot of the time, the Reds have been living and dying by the bullpen. They did it once three years ago, but I doubt they can pull it off again.

As for the Cubs, they were supposed to have both a pretty decent offense and pitching. So far, worst offense and mediocre pitching. Not good. Can’t blame Kerry Wood, Matt Clement and Jon Lieber — they’ve been doing their jobs. Once you get past Sammy Sosa with his 1.2120 OPS, there’s not a heck of a lot. Only Fred McGriff, at a measly .817, breaks .800. In fact few of the rest even break .700. Pretty sad. All I can think of is, "What the hell was I thinking when I picked this bunch to win the Central?"

Finally, in the West, here’s the picture:

Team	Pred W	Pred W%	Act W%	Diff
Az	91	.560	.608	.048
SF	94	.579	.600	.021
LA	82	.505	.577	.072
Col	85	.527	.519	-.008
SD	84	.516	.462	-.054

Again, all going pretty much according to plan except for one team — the Dodgers, and even they’re pretty close to the random three win test. I expected above average pitching, but a sub-par offense. So far, the offense is what has driven their better than expected performance. It’s actually hard to figure out why it’s been much better than average. Of the regulars, only Green and Jordan are hitting for better than a .900 OPS, and only Karros joins them above the ,800 mark. Maybe it’s the fact that they don’t have any regulars under .600 for the first time in a while?

Regardless of that, the West is really shaping up as a battle of mostly average or better teams, which is more than can be said for the Central...

about the author

No, we're not here to help you beat the house at Vegas, but if you have any NL prognostications, why not send your guess on their playoff odds to Dave Paisley? That address would be drdjp@strikethree.com. Greg Vaughn not valid where prohibited (which is just about everywhere.)