Prospect Report:
Throwin' For Broke

David Cameron

Reading my previous two columns on the importance of minor league walk rates, it becomes fairly obvious that players who don't walk in the minors aren't very likely to become stars in the major leagues. However, I've gotten several e-mails asking me if the converse is true. Is a solid minor-league walk rate a sign that a player will become a good major-league hitter?

The answer is a pretty firm no. There are quite a few guys in the minor leagues who have the ability to draw the base on balls but lack other necessary skills. While I'm a big believer in patience at the plate, it's not an effective tool by itself. Major-league hitters have major-league hitting ability.

There have been a slew of players whose walk rates were very good at the minor-league level while they lacked the ability to hit major-league pitching. Players like Brian L. Hunter, Jason Tyner, Mike Bordick, and Tom Goodwin all had minor-league profiles that demonstrated some level of plate discipline. This didn't translate to the big leagues, however, as pitchers simply weren't afraid to throw these guys strikes. It's hard to draw a walk when you're seeing strikes on every pitch.

I got a living example of this last week when I took a jaunt down I-85 to watch the South Atlantic League matchup between Charleston (West Virginia, which has to be specified because there are two Charleston teams in the SAL) and Kannapolis. The Charleston Alley Cats (a Blue Jays affiliate) have a first baseman named Mike Snyder. He's currently hitting .281/.372/.405 with a 27/38 BB/K ratio in 185 at-bats. He's 6'4" and 220 lbs, so his low power is a bit of a surprise. I've talked with a Blue Jays rep who wrote him off as a non-prospect, but was still curious to see him in person myself.

After watching the White Sox' 2001 first-round pick Kris Honel dice Snyder to pieces, I understand why Toronto isn't expecting much from him. He draws walks by working the count against low-A pitchers. While this is a fine approach, its not a translatable major-league skill, where you won't be facing pitchers who simply can't throw strikes (except when Rick Ankiel takes the mound).

Honel threw a major-league fastball and curveball in the strike zone and Snyder looked foolish. His bat speed is slow and he really lacks the ability to drive the baseball. While Snyder has patience, he lacks the other major-league abilities he needs to translate that skill into production.

Honel is one of four top pitching prospects I've seen in the last week. He's been the most impressive as well. He throws a low 90s fastball and mixes it with a big-league curve. He threw a pair of outstanding changeups, but didn't work it in as more than a spot pitch. There's certainly major-league talent there, and it was obvious why he was a first round pick.

His counterpart, Francisco Rosario, has assembled more impressive numbers but didn't show me as much as Honel. His fastball is more of a high 80's velocity and his secondary pitches aren't nearly as advanced. He used a bit of a slider/cutter and worked around the strike zone. I kept waiting for Rosario to show me a "knockout" pitch and it just never came. He was effective against lesser competition, but I didn't see much to make me think he'll get major-league hitters out effectively with what he has now.

On Memorial Day, I went to watch Winston-Salem and Myrtle Beach match up in a Carolina League matinee. The W-S Warthogs are the high-A affiliate of the White Sox and 2001 sandwich pick Wyatt Allen was taking the hill against Kenny "Bubba" Nelson. Both pitchers had been touted as bringing a mid-90s fastball, so I made a point of sitting directly behind a pair of radar guns and watching the readings.

Allen started the game at 85-87 but moved up to 89-90 as the game progressed. He hit 91 once, but never approached the 94 he'd been reported at. He showed some solid secondary pitches as his 77 MPH curveball is a good pitch and he showed good drop on his changeup. He used his breaking stuff to set up his fastball, however, and that didn't work real well. Pitchers can succeed in the majors without throwing hard, but they generally need one "plus" pitch. Allen's stuff is solid across the board, but he doesn't have anything particular that will get major-league hitters out consistently.

He's got solid mechanics and there's a chance he just didn't have his good velocity on Monday. It's also possible, however, that he's going to have to push his curveball into Aaron Sele territory, because his heater isn't a real go-to pitch. I'll see Allen again this year, but right now I'm not as optimistic as everyone else.

Speaking of mechanics, that brings us to Nelson. At 6'0" he doesn't look like a "Bubba", but the nickname doesn't come from his size. Reports had clocked his fastball as high as 96, and Dan Curtis (who was charting for Myrtle Beach) gave me the same report. Like Allen, he never approached it. He sat between 88 and 91 most of the game, with the exception of the fourth inning, when he attempted to increase his velocity at the expense of his control. He tossed a 94 MPH fastball to the screen (on the fly) and threw a 93 MPH heater just over Mike Zywica's head.

Nelson then returned to sanity, shaved off a few MPH and returned to throwing strikes in the low 90s. His main pitch is a hard, diving slider which breaks down and away from right-handed batters. This is a nasty pitch, but one Nelson is far too reliant on. I don't recall ever seeing a starting pitcher throw so many sliders in one game. Nelson probably threw between 50-60 percent sliders. That will put a tremendous amount of strain on his elbow, and combined with his small stature, I wouldn't be surprised to see him develop some arm problems in the future.

He profiles more as a major-league reliever if he does stay healthy. I couldn't help but compare Nelson to Matt Mantei as I watched, thinking maybe someday the Braves could trade him to Arizona for three good prospects.

about the author

David Cameron doesn't look like a "Bubba" either. Suggest Chip, Skip or Elrod at dac@strikethree.com.