Playing the Percentages

Dave Paisley

As everyone seems to be pointing out, we’re about a third of the way through the season, and that seems to be a good point to evaluate how everyone’s doing. While it may be self-centered, I decided that the best way to evaluate teams is against the predictions I made back in February. Just for once, most of them haven’t been too far off, although that can change in a hurry.

Just for kicks, let’s start with the AL East. The table below shows the teams in current standing order (as of 5/27) with my predicted winning percentage, predicted total season wins, current winning percentage, and finally, the difference between current and predicted winning percentage. Note that switching five wins for losses, or vice versa, will result in a +/-.100 swing in winning percentage, so I figure that’s a decent cutoff for the really glaring differences.

Team	Pred W%	Pred W	Actual W%	Diff
Bos	.591	96	.688	.097
NYY	.562	91	.654	.092
Bal	.435	71	.458	.023
Tor	.444	72	.354	-.090
TB	.376	61	.333	-.043

The AL East is going mostly according to plan, with the Red Sox delighting me so far by staying ahead of the Yankees. With the best record in baseball, the Bosox are even reminding me of Seattle last year. Despite the curse, they have managed to stay on a hefty winning pace despite losing Manny Ramirez for a few weeks. And this has been no Manny-lite this year. Right up to the injury, he was about as good as he’s ever been. Great pitching and a much-improved offense are just the ticket. The Yankees are keeping up, though, and are also well ahead of the pace I expected them to set. Toronto has easily been the biggest disappointment in the division, with really horrid pitching and a weaker than expected offense.

I don’t think it’s possible to call anything Tampa Bay does a "disappointment" technically because expectations are so low. Their one bright spot has been playing Seattle really tight.

In the Central, the Twins and White Sox are humming along well above the .500 pace I expected, while Cleveland is right on the money. The Tribe’s pitching ahs been better than I expected, but the offense has, if anything, been even more ineffectual than I dreamed. As for the Tigers, I was roundly castigated by a Tigers fan when my predictions came out for being too negative, and yet I wasn’t pessimistic enough, apparently. That umpteen game losing streak to start the season didn’t help, of course.

Team	Pred W%	Pred W	Actual W%	Diff
Min	.501	81	.569	.068
ChA	.498	81	.549	.051
Cle	.461	75	.460	-.001
Det	.487	79	.396	-.091
KC	.371	60	.396	.025

Kansas City is generally easy to predict, so I claim no great insight in getting their cellar dwelling position correct.

The West appears on the surface to be about right, with Seattle being chased by another team with great pitching and decent offense. Oh, but it’s the Angels, not the A’s that are in second place. The Angels are doing it all with the same formula the M’s have used the last couple of years — solid starting pitching, tight bullpen and a well rounded if unspectacular offense. Can they keep it up? I doubt it, but they will undoubtedly be better than anyone expected.

Team	Pred W%	Pred W	Actual W%	Diff
Sea	.576	93	.653	.077
Ana	.458	74	.596	.138
Oak	.561	91	.469	-.092
Tex	.484	78	.408	-.076

Meanwhile, what happened to the mighty A’s? With big Giambi gone they were supposed to get by on offense while the stellar pitching shut down the opposition. Well, so much for that theory. Mark Mulder was injured and even though he’s back, his numbers are nasty. Tim Hudson has been barely above average and unlucky with run support while Lidle and Hiljus have simply been horrible. Only Barry Zito has pitched as expected. The weird house cleaning, ridding the team of any remaining Giambi-ness may work, but maybe it will just confuse the issue further. The remainder of this year will test the "Billy Beane is a genius baseball God sent from Pluto" theory.

Finally, the Mariners look set to repeat last year’s success, albeit without the amazing good fortune that is required to post 116 wins. Now, as long as they don’t have to meet Tampa Bay in the playoffs they’ll be just fine...

about the author

Sorry to disappoint if you were looking for Vegas odds on Tampa's playoff chances. But why not send you gues on their playoff odds to Dave Paisley? That address would be drdjp@strikethree.com. Greg Vaughn not valid where prohibited (which is just about everywhere.)