Red Sky at Night, Refinery’s Alight

Dave Paisley

Last week I took a look at the surprising leaders of the National League Central division, at that time the Pittsburgh Pirates. I pointed out how their offense is weaker than Bud Light and doesn’t look to get much better. They were in a virtual tie for first place in the division with the Reds and were about to start a series with the Rockies in Colorado.

With everything to play for, the Pirates surely must have set some kind of record by getting shut out in Coors on back-to-back days. Last week the Pirates had the fourth-worst offense in the league. This week they’re down to dead last. The pitching was fifth then, now it's eighth. I don't think I need to spell out how bad those trends are.

On April 30, they were shutout 10-0 by Mike Hampton, et al, on three hits and three walks. They followed it up with a three-hit, two-walk 6-0 shutout the next day against Denny Neagle. For the week they were outscored 39-15 and went 2-5 to fall out of first place in the Central. However, on the plus side of the ledger, and just to show how odd baseball can be, they faced Randy Johnson Monday night in Arizona and beat him 3-2. In the game, Brian Giles hit only the second homer off Johnson by a left-handed batter since 1999. Go figure.

The Pirates may have abdicated first place in the Central, but their successors, the Reds, have hardly grabbed the division by the throat either. In fact, the Reds have made more noise off the field this week than on, with Ken Griffey Jr.’s biweekly lament. Reds fans were asked in a TV poll who should sit when Griffey is healthy again, and 74% of them picked Griffey.

Shows what fans know. The Reds may have a modest lead atop the Central division now, but at 18-13 they’re hardly set for the playoffs just yet. With an offensive OPS of a mere .685 it’s not like the Reds can turn up their noses at a quality bat like Griffey’s. When healthy he can be expected to contribute an OPS of around .950 or so, based on recent seasons. The key part of that is, of course, the when and if.

And maybe those Cincy fans aren’t so daft after all. The problem with the Reds' offense isn’t really the outfield right now. With Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Juan Encarnacion banging away with OPS of .940, 1.123 and .840 respectively, it is tough to figure out who sits when Griffey comes back. Now if only Junior could play 3B he could replace Aaron Boone’s weak .627 OPS. Or at short he could maybe replace Barry Larkin’s anemic .571. Or maybe Jr. could fill in over at 2B, where Todd Walker’s whooping it up with his .561 OPS? If he could don the tools of ignorance he could maybe beef up the offense from behind the plate where Jason LaRue is managing a meager .593 OPS.

So the Reds' problem is that they could use Griffey’s bat, but all the guys that play where he could play are all producing well. The big holes are in more specialized defensive spots. You could maybe get a bit of an upgrade at first though, because Sean Casey is merely adequate with his .791 OPS. Still, that would be a tough call.

Overall, though, the Reds' success so far has been based on their pitching. And once again, much like 1999, that success is built more around mid-game wins for the bullpen than on solid starting pitching. Scott Sullivan, Jim Brower, Danny Graves, Gabe White and Scott Williamson are a combined 8-0, with Luis Pineda being the only reliever with a loss. In fact, he has three of them. The offensive failings come into focus a little better when you look at the starters’ numbers. Elmer Dessens: 6 starts, 2.05 ERA, 2-3 record. Joey Hamilton (just placed on the DL Tuesday): 7 starts, 3.10 ERA, 2-1 record.

Overall, the Reds are not really very impressive. The outfield looks good, the rest of the offense is very weak, and the pitching just took a turn for the worse with the loss of Joey "DL" Hamilton.

I guess the nicest thing you can say about the NL Central is that...well, they’re really isn’t much you can say that’s good about the NL Central. The Astros, Cardinals and Cubs all have yet to wake up, and the Brewers, well, they’re easily the worst team in the NL, and I like it fine that way.

Doesn’t anybody want to win this division?

about the author

Dave Paisley wants to see how many people think that no team in the NL Central will finish over .500 this year. Why not send him your thoughts on the matter? That address would be drdjp@strikethree.com. Limit 25 votes per customer.