Prospect Report:
Simmer Down Now

David Cameron

We're a month into the baseball season and my main words of advice are: calm down. This applies to both ends of the spectrum. A lot of people are beginning to get really excited about the great month Alexis Gomez just finished up in Wichita. The Royals are already publicly saying he's better than Johnny Damon, who at one point was the savior of that franchise.

Folks, it's just one month. Ruben Sierra currently leads the American League in batting average. Mike Piazza and Randall Simon have the same amount of home runs. Peter Bergeron, who drew 28 walks last season, has drawn 22. Among pitchers the Mariners never should have gotten rid of, Brett Tomko has a lower ERA than Randy Johnson.

Hold off on that authentic Choo Freeman jersey. While young players are certainly capable of breakthrough seasons, a good first month isn't necessarily an indicator of things to follow. At this time last year, Rick Elder had a monster month under his belt. Don't worry; you didn't miss his breakthrough year. It just didn't happen.

While getting overly excited about a player who is overachieving is more prevalent, people can often write off struggling players too early. Adam Johnson, the number-two pick in the 2000 draft, was penciled in as a candidate for the fifth starter job in spring training. He struggled and has found himself in AAA Edmonton.

After another disaster of a start last night, he's sitting on a 9.15 ERA. In 21 innings, he's allowed 27 hits and six home runs. He hasn't had much control either, walking 18. He has struck out 22, if you're looking for a silver lining in this hurricane.

Johnson was considered a signability pick when the Twins drafted him in 2000, but he was also a talented, college-polished pitcher who the Twins thought could move quickly. He's faced some struggles in his pro career and is already being labeled a disappointment by some. Considering he doesn't turn 23 until July, that's a bit premature.

Johnson is hardly the first pitcher to struggle in the minor leagues, and he certainly wouldn't be the first to bounce back and succeed at the major league level. Below are AAA stat lines for four current major-league pitchers:

Pitcher A: Age 22 24 IP, 32 H, 2 HR, 17 BB, 9 K, 10.73 ERA
Pitcher B: Age 20 40 IP, 40 H, 4 HR, 27 BB, 12 K, 5.63 ERA
Pitcher C: Age 21 26 IP, 33 H, 1 HR, 13 BB, 18 K, 5.96 ERA
Pitcher D: Age 22 23 IP, 21 H, 1 HR, 15 BB, 23 K, 6.17 ERA

Those four pitchers are Kevin Brown, Tom Glavine, Darryl Kile, and Al Leiter.

It's hard to imagine Tom Glavine walking 27 guys in 40 innings. It's hard to see how Kevin Brown could only strike out nine in 24 innings. In a few years, it may very well be hard to imagine Adam Johnson posting a 9.15 ERA in AAA.

Baseball is a game of streaks. Last year, Ichiro Suzuki won the AL MVP after hitting .350. No one remembers that he hit .268 in July. Expecting consistency from kids is ridiculous and will lead to a string of disappointments. Adam Johnson certainly isn't pitching as well as he can. That doesn't indicate that he is a disappointment or a flop. It indicates that he's a pitcher. What determines how successful he will become is how he responds to failure.

The stuff that made Johnson successful is still there. He's the same pitcher who broke records in college. He's the same pitcher who Twins fans were counting on to join Brad Radke and Eric Milton in leading the Twins to the Anti-Contraction Series. He's hit a bump in the road, but that road certainly hasn't ended.

When you're poring over box scores, disappointed that Casey Kotchman is hitting .213 or delighted that Chad Tracy is hitting .406, remind yourself that it's only one month. In the grand scheme of things, 80 at-bats or 30 innings really don't mean a whole heck of a lot.

about the author

David Cameron has overcome his early inability to spot his adverbs and is now on pace to smash the record book. Tell him to do it boldly, humbly and proudly at dac@strikethree.com.