Arrrrgh, Mateys!

Dave Paisley

Well, who would have guessed pre-season that the Pittsburgh Pirates would get off to a hot start and start inducing those "Are the Pirates for real?" stories. Usually, the answer is, of course, no, it’s a fluke. However, last year’s Seattle Mariners have clouded the picture a bit, and most pundits are willing to sit back and wait a while. After all, maybe the Pirates have figured out the Mariners' secret of success and have magically applied them during the offseason.

My take on the Pirates' hot start? Nothing but fluke. Some extraordinary pitching got them out ahead of the pack, and they’re gradually being reeled in. Of course, I didn’t expect that it would be Cincinnati who passed them first, but apparently lightning can strike twice in the same division.

So why am I so negative on the Pirates' start? There are several reasons. The first is that they’ve generally played a weak schedule. Their opponents have a combined .460 winning percentage. That’s not terrible, but it has helped them.

The second reason is that they’ve been awfully lucky in generating wins. Through 23 games they compiled a 14-9 record, while they scored a meager 3.7 runs per game (13th in the league) and allowed 3.87 (5th in the league). That should have translated into a record something like 11-12, but didn’t. We can probably attribute some of those extra wins to lights-out relief pitching. After all, Mike Lincoln (.71 ERA), Mike Williams (.82), Scott Sauerbeck (1.00), Joe Beimel (1.93), Mike Fetters (2.08) and Brian Boehringer (2.84) have contributed 63 appearances and 63 innings of pretty spectacular relief. I’ll try to be kind and not spotlight Sean Lowe’s 20 innings of 6.30 ERA relief.

The rotation, though, is young and has benefited from the above bullpen way above what can be expected over the long haul. Only Josh Fogg (3-0, 1.46 ERA, age 25, almost zero ML experience) has been good as a starter. Kip Wells, acquired from the White Sox, is also 25, but has been more lucky than good, compiling a 3-1 record despite a 5.11 ERA. With 14 walks and 4 HR allowed in 24+ innings, he’s not going to maintain that .750 winning percentage very long.

With Dave Williams (Age 23, 2-3, 5.40), Jimmy Anderson (26, 2-3, 6.04) and Ron Villone (32, 2-3,6.40) rounding out the rotation, there’s not a lot of hope for long-term success. Even the return of Kris Benson will only help alleviate some of the downturn.

But even if the pitching staff can maintain this level of excellence, there seem to be few, if any, bright spots on the offensive side. Take the starting lineup (please!). Well, before we even go there, let’s credit the team with handling Derek Bell’s "Operation Shutdown" perfectly. At last, a smart front office move from the Pirates.

But really, look who they trotted out against Colorado on Tuesday night:

Player	Pos	AVG	OPS
A Nunez	2b	.196	.563
A Brown	cf	.209	.625
B Giles	lf	.308	1.031
C Wilson	rf	.243	.570
R Mackowiak	3b	.242	.669
J Kendall	c	.227	.626
K Young	1b	.188	.638
M Benjamin	ss	.103	.299
D Williams	p	.200	.700

Now riddle me this, Batman: how do you send out a lineup that has a cleanup hitter with a .570 OPS? There are so many things wrong with this lineup I don’t know where to start. Brian Giles stands out like a healthy thumb in a land of sore thumbs, but that’s about it. I mean, the pitcher has the second-highest OPS on the team! It features three batters with averages below .200, and only one with an average over .250. I'm not sure there are words that have been invented that can adequately describe the depths that this offense could plumb over the course of a season.

It’s no shock that lineup managed a meager three hits in a 10-0 loss. Can we honestly expect a team with this lack of firepower (Aramis Ramirez and a DL-ed Pokey Reese notwithstanding) to compete in the long run? The answer is no, you can’t.

Oh, I forgot to mention that they do have secret weapon Jack Wilson (.273 AVG, .676 OPS) standing by, too.

Oh well, never mind.

So sorry, Bucs fans. The light may shine a little longer this year than in the recent past, but it will get snuffed out like a candle in a thunderstorm long before the All-Star break.

about the author

C'mon, we know that you think you could hit better than half the Pirates' starting lineup. Send your name to Dave Paisley and he'll see if he can get you a tryout. That address would be drdjp@strikethree.com.