Blowing Hot and Cold

Dave Paisley

Excuse me if I seem a bit frazzled this week. I just got done watching Monday night’s Mariners-Rangers 13-11 slugfest (and believe me, in Seattle, we know slugs...) We all know that Arlington isn’t exactly pitching heaven, and so it has proved the past few days. However, when you start with radically inferior pitching, as the Rangers have every season of late, the odds are that it will catch up with you sooner than the other team. And so it proved, with the Mariners completing an 8-0 road sweep of division rivals Anaheim and Texas. Just imagine what the Mariners could be doing if they were in the AL Central, beating up on the even more hapless Tigers and Royals.

Which leads me to this week’s theme — who’s hot and who’s not. Team-wise, the Mariners and Indians are the fast starters in the American League, with an honorable mention to the Twins, who have managed a respectable 8-5 despite an 0-4 drubbing at the hands of the Indians.

Of the less than stellar early performances in the AL, it’s hard to beat the Tigers, who continue to wallow in a quagmire of crapitude. It’s also nice to see the Orioles and Devil Rays begin to assert their shabbiness early, and it’s always gratifying to see one’s predictions about the Rangers hold up. There haven’t been any real shockingly bad starts by what are expected to be good teams.

In the National League, it’s hard to say that anyone is running away from the pack early, but the Giants, Cardinals and Diamondbacks are making a decent showing early.

Because of the relatively parity-laden start in the NL, there are no big early losers, although it was looking ropy in San Diego for the first week. Colorado, Milwaukee and the Cubs are the nearest thing to really bad starts, and we certainly don’t feel too bad about the middle of those teams.

But what about individual starts? Here’s a position by position breakdown of the warm and the cool. Note that all contestants must have at least 30 PA. Sure, the sample size is pretty darn small, but hot starts translate to confidence, which can turn into a great year. Cold starts can lead to benching and questions and lack of confidence. I’ve ranked the players by OPS (On base Plus Slugging)

Let’s start with first base

No real surprises in the hot category, although it is nice to see John Olerud off to a hot start after a so-so year last season.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carlos Delgado	TOR	1B	39	14	4	12	.410	.589	.846	1.435
Todd Zeile	COL	1B	40	5	3	10	.375	.409	.700	1.109
John Olerud	SEA	1B	43	9	3	6	.348	.440	.604	1.044
Derrek Lee	FLA	1B	43	8	4	11	.279	.425	.604	1.029
Phil Nevin	SDG	1B	41	5	2	7	.365	.425	.585	1.010

In the cool category, we have some perennial contenders (Snow), and a maybe not surprising Tino Martinez. His charm and smile will get him through April with numbers like that without serious repercussions, though.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brad Fullmer	ANA	1B	34	2	0	0	.205	.307	.235	.542
J.T. Snow	SF	1B	39	2	0	2	.179	.304	.205	.509
Tony Clark	BOS	1B	33	3	1	4	.151	.200	.272	.472
Jeff Conine	BAL	1B	43	4	0	3	.186	.217	.255	.472
Tino Martinez	STL	1B	37	0	0	4	.162	.304	.162	.466

At second, we have more perennial contenders, with the addition of young Marcus Giles. Should be a big confidence boost to get off to such a good start.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Alfonso Soriano	NYY	2B	54	11	2	6	.370	.385	.592	.977
Ray Durham	CHA	2B	40	7	1	7	.325	.448	.500	.948
Edgardo Alfonzo	NYM	2B	40	6	0	4	.375	.479	.425	.904
Marcus Giles	ATL	2B	43	4	2	6	.279	.415	.488	.903
Marlon Anderson	PHI	2B	48	5	0	2	.312	.400	.479	.879

At the other end, the fall of the motorbike, truck, whatever, seems to have gotten to Jeff Kent, but what excuse do the others have? Oh, mostly they just suck. That’s it.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Adam Kennedy	ANA	2B	35	4	0	0	.200	.243	.285	.528
Jeff Kent	SF	2B	31	3	1	4	.161	.205	.258	.463
Shane Halter	DET	2B	42	1	0	1	.142	.234	.166	.400
Jerry Hairston	BAL	2B	32	2	0	0	.156	.205	.187	.392
Eric Young	MIL	2B	38	3	0	2	.078	.229	.105	.334

At third, not even an injury can keep Eric Chavez down it appears, while many will question the appearance of Shea Hillenbrand and Craig Paquette. Here’s where we invoke the "small sample size" rule and walk on by.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Eric Chavez	OAK	3B	38	11	6	12	.263	.348	.868	1.216
Shea Hillenbrand	BOS	3B	39	6	4	12	.384	.404	.717	1.121
Robin Ventura	NYY	3B	39	6	5	14	.282	.363	.717	1.080
Mike Lowell	FLA	3B	49	8	2	7	.387	.444	.612	1.056
Craig Paquette	DET	3B	33	3	2	4	.333	.361	.606	.967

At the bottom of the hit parade at 3B, one notable is Jeff Cirillo, who isn’t performing as advertised for Seattle. Still, he should worry. 11-3 can hide a lot of cold starts. Of more concern is Hank Blalock, the young Texas phenom, who won’t get an endless trial in the bigs if he keeps this up.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chris Stynes	CHN	3B	26	4	0	2	.192	.322	.230	.552
Jeff Cirillo	SEA	3B	48	4	0	7	.229	.264	.270	.534
Tyler Houston	MIL	3B	27	3	0	2	.222	.275	.259	.534
Hank Blalock	TEX	3B	32	1	0	2	.156	.270	.218	.488
Bobby Smith	TAM	3B	40	2	0	5	.175	.214	.225	.439

At short, we have Alex Rodriguez showing that carrying a .200 average for the first week of the season doesn’t mean squat, while you can also see his replacement tucked in nicely just below him.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Felipe Lopez	TOR	SS	32	7	2	6	.312	.405	.625	1.030
Juan Uribe	COL	SS	51	11	1	7	.372	.410	.568	.978
Alex Rodriguez	TEX	SS	47	8	4	9	.276	.381	.595	.976
Carlos Guillen	SEA	SS	40	10	0	12	.350	.446	.500	.946
Nomar Garciaparra	BOS	SS	37	9	3	6	.297	.350	.594	.944

On the down side, we have Rey Ordonez fighting to keep his crown at the bottom of the offensive heap, but it looks like he’ll have some sterling competition this year. That Jack Wilson looks like a keeper. And by that I mean goalkeeper, because he apparently can’t hit major league pitching.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Neifi Perez	KAN	SS	41	5	0	5	.195	.204	.317	.521
Rey Ordonez	NYM	SS	40	6	0	6	.225	.232	.250	.482
Rafael Furcal	ATL	SS	50	6	0	1	.160	.250	.180	.430
Ramon Vazquez	SDG	SS	29	0	0	1	.172	.172	.206	.378
Jack Wilson	PIT	SS	27	1	0	2	.111	.111	.111	.222

At catcher, it’s pretty difficult to figure out how Eli Marrero has a 1.4 OPS without much power. That .566 average sure helps, though. With catchers, though, the sample size is usually smaller because of the more frequent rest days. Don’t get too excited yet.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Eli Marrero	STL	C	30	8	1	6	.566	.593	.833	1.426
Mike Barrett	MON	C	34	6	4	15	.441	.459	.911	1.370
Sandy Alomar	CHA	C	26	2	2	5	.384	.407	.730	1.137
Damian Miller	ARI	C	32	6	3	8	.312	.435	.625	1.060
Jason Varitek	BOS	C	27	4	2	3	.296	.344	.518	.862

On the down side, the bottom looks like a who’s who of catching for the last few years, with the exception of Hernandez. Injuries and recoveries from injuries are a large part of the problem. Or just plain old age in Santiago’s case.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Benito Santiago	SF	C	36	4	1	5	.194	.236	.361	.597
Javier Lopez	ATL	C	40	2	1	3	.200	.255	.325	.580
Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	C	45	3	0	5	.222	.265	.288	.553
Jason Kendall	PIT	C	37	3	0	0	.108	.175	.162	.337
Ramon Hernandez	OAK	C	31	2	0	1	.096	.176	.129	.305

In the outfield, we all know who the biggest, baddest slugger of all is. We also have some nice additions in Ruben Sierra, looking to prove 2001 was no fluke, Alex Ochoa making a brief name for himself in the obscurity of Milwaukee, and Mike Cameron, blossoming a bit more than last year, even. Jacque Jones is also having a nice little start for himself over in the Twin Cities.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Barry Bonds	SF	OF	27	13	7	16	.407	.636	1.259	1.895
Ruben Sierra	SEA	OF	25	5	1	5	.480	.535	.760	1.295
Jim Edmonds	STL	OF	40	11	5	9	.350	.527	.750	1.277
Alex Ochoa	MIL	OF	28	6	3	6	.392	.451	.821	1.272
Ellis Burks	CLE	OF	43	9	2	10	.418	.528	.674	1.202
Mike Cameron	SEA	OF	44	13	4	8	.318	.491	.704	1.195
Sammy Sosa	CHN	OF	40	8	5	7	.300	.428	.725	1.153
Bobby Abreu	PHI	OF	31	6	1	5	.354	.512	.548	1.060
Jacque Jones	MIN	OF	53	12	4	10	.358	.435	.622	1.057
Rob Fick	DET	OF	26	4	1	2	.384	.428	.615	1.043

On the down side, we have notables in Carl Everett, Tim Salmon (who has also looked awful in the field), Greg Vaughn and Todd Hollandsworth, who is trying to prove that you can play in Coors and still suck offensively.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jason Tyner	TAM	OF	45	8	0	4	.200	.280	.222	.502
Todd Hollandsworth	COL	OF	31	1	0	2	.193	.212	.290	.502
Tsuyoshi Shinjo	SF	OF	40	4	1	3	.175	.250	.250	.500
Carl Everett	TEX	OF	39	4	2	6	.153	.190	.307	.497
Terrence Long	OAK	OF	47	6	0	4	.170	.220	.255	.475
Tim Salmon	ANA	OF	41	4	0	3	.146	.255	.195	.450
Roosevelt Brown	CHN	OF	30	1	0	0	.166	.193	.233	.426
Greg Vaughn	TAM	OF	43	5	0	3	.139	.244	.162	.406
Jose Macias	DET	OF	38	4	0	1	.157	.219	.184	.403
Chris Singleton	BAL	OF	41	3	0	1	.121	.139	.146	.285

So there are the offensive leaders and losers for the first couple of weeks. I'll be keeping track of some of the oddball players in the lists here over the next few weeks to see how some of the stories pan out.

 

about the author

Got a favorite player off to a hot or cold start? Why not drop Dave Paisley a line with any noteworthy info at drdjp@strikethree.com. He's not interested in your cat, though.