Prospect Report:
Propping the Stock

David Cameron

Welcome to the first regular-season edition of the Prospect Report. Now the fun begins.

Unlike their big-league brethren, minor-league players can dramatically change their perceived value in one season. Barry Bonds and Bret Boone had historical seasons in 2001 and still found the free-agent waters to be dark, muddy, and quite lonely. Adam Dunn had a season of historical proportions on the minor-league level and has been anointed the savior of Cincinnati.

Players can make tremendous leaps forward at younger ages, and minor-league players often come out of nowhere to establish themselves as major-league prospects. We'll spend plenty of time this season covering the big names (after all, that's what the Prospect Ten is there for) that have already established themselves. However, I also hope to introduce you to players you may not be familiar with now but will be when the season is over. There are a lot of kids who will take large strides toward a big league career this year, and I hope I can shed some light on a few of them before they become the talk of the organization in the offseason.

St. Louis fans, get to know Tyler Johnson. He's pitching like the next great Cardinal left-hander. In an organization that has produced the pre-JockStrip Rick Ankiel and his complete opposite, Bud Smith, successful young left-handed pitching is becoming a tradition. This former 34th-round pick is looking to keep the lineage going.

Selected out of Moorpark Junior College in 2000, Johnson returned for his sophomore season in 2001 and signed with the Cardinals before the 2001 draft via the draft-and-follow process. He had committed to go to Washington State University before signing, and the coaches in Pullman were quite excited about adding Johnson's arm.

Johnson mixes a low-90's fastball with a lethal slider that has potential to turn into an elite strikeout pitch. He struggles to spot his fastball, but its movement makes it a quality pitch as well. He's developing off-speed pitches, but doesn't have the command of anything solid yet. Making his professional debut last year in Johnson City (where he was teammates with the aforementioned Ankiel), he pitched like a 20-year-old with talent should.

While averaging only 4-1/3 IP per start and walking a batter every other inning, there were a lot of positive signs, as he struck out 58 batters in just 40 2/3 IP, allowed only 26 hits and 1 HR, and posted a 2.66 ERA. He got promoted to Peoria at the end of the year and struck out 15 batters in 13 2/3 innings. His control needed work, but the evidence of his pure stuff was there.

If his opening night debut is any indication, Johnson has made major strides. He tossed a gem for Peoria against Kane County in his full-season debut. Over five innings of work, he allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out nine batters. He recorded fifteen outs while facing just sixteen hitters.

The Midwest League can be very pitcher-friendly early in the season due to some frigid temperatures, but Johnson's stuff isn't questionable. The terrific command is a great sign. If Johnson can string together a few more starts like his opener, he's going to open a lot of eyes. Considering he doesn't turn 21 until June, Johnson has definitely got time on his side.

Matt Roney has followed quite a different career path. He was the 28th player selected in the 1998 draft and signed with the Colorado Rockies for just over $1 million. (Just for fun, he went 22 picks ahead of Adam Dunn.) However, Roney's shoulder gave way to a torn labrum in 1999, and he underwent season-ending surgery.

Being a first-round pick out of high-school, the odds were certainly not in Matt's favor, and it appeared he may be another in the long line of failed high-school pitching prospects taken early in the draft. He spent 2000 in rookie ball trying to get his stuff back and prove his arm could handle a big workload. He managed only 80 innings in 15 starts, as the Rockies were cautious with his arm. His command was poor, walking 44, but he struck out 85 and posted a 3.14 ERA, which gave cause to some optimism.

The Rockies then sent Roney to Asheville of the South Atlantic League, and his earned-run average took a beating. After posting a 4.98 ERA, he didn't register on too many casual observers' radar. However, he pitched better than his ERA would indicate, averaging close to 6 IP/start, dropping his walks to around three per nine innings, and struck out 115 over 121 innings of work.

Roney's high ERA was due to an unusually large amount of hits and home runs allowed, but those factors aren't as consistent as walks and strikeouts. Regardless, the Rockies sent him back to Asheville for the 2002 season.

Roney's 6'4", 225 lb. frame generates a good fastball with late movement. His secondary pitches have been a concern, but considering he's spent most of the last two years trying to stay out of the trainer's room, we'll give him the benefit of the doubt. This 22-year-old is making his case to move up the ladder.

Pitching four dominating innings in his opener, Roney gave up only a solo home run among four hits. He didn't walk a man and struck out ten. In his second appearance of the year, he pushed his arm up to six innings, again giving up just four hits. None of these left the yard, or even managed to come around to score. He walked his first two batters of the season, but struck out nine more.

On the season, Roney's got a 0.90 ERA that is accompanied by some astounding ratios. I'm not sure if I'm more impressed by the 19/2 K/BB ratio or the 19/10 K/IP ratio. Both are tremendous, and bode very well for his future.

Roney should get the promotion to Salem before too long, and it will be interesting to watch how he fares against higher-level hitters. His early returns are very solid, and should be encouraging to the ever-growing list of pitchers who have lost their seasons to torn labrums.

about the author

David Cameron is currently working on methods for using Fenway Franks to aid air-traffic control. Suggest drying them and using them as flares at dac@strikethree.com.