Not So So-So Any More

Dave Paisley

Way back in early February, I paid my annual visit to the shrine of our Lady of the Home Run, checking out the prospects of today's top sluggers catching Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth. I was remiss, however, in that I completely ignored a player who has crept to the forefront of the all-time home run race: Sammy Sosa. Thanks to astute reader Kyle for the heads-up.

Despite the warm smile and MVP awards, it's easy to forget about Sammy, due to his being a Cub and toiling in the home-run shadow of first Mark McGwire and then Barry Bonds. But Sammy is a genuine, bona-fide, blue-chip contender for the all-time title (until Alex Rodriguez takes it away again, perhaps.)

Sammy's career has been an interesting one, too. It's possible to see how he has matured as a batter from a routine 100+ strikeout/sub-50-walk guy to one of the premier sluggers of the day. A mere four years ago, I was ragging on Sammy, right before he went gonzo on the league, along with McGwire, in 1998. 1997 had been a down year for him, OPS dropping under .800 or so after reaching .900 in two of the three previous years. Then suddenly he just caught fire and hasn’t looked back, posting four seasons of 1.000 OPS and better.

The interesting thing to note about all of this is Sammy’s sudden interest in taking a walk. Before 1998, his on-base percentage was woefully below .350,dropping to a pitiful .300 in 1997. The sudden surge in patience took his OBP over .250 for the first time in his career.

Laying off unhittable balls also sent his slugging percentage rocketing over .600 for the first time. He’s gotten better every year since.

All of this massive improvement has put Sammy into a handy position for the career home-run title over the next five to ten years. Here are the key contenders, along with the historical for Ruth, Aaron and Foxx. Sosa is the realy thick blue line.

As you can see, Sammy was lagging behind the fast starters quite a bit early in his career, but the 243 homers he has hit in the last four years have moved him into the fast track. He’s now ahead of Ruth and Aaron at the same age and rapidly closing in on Jimmy Foxx, who was just about out of juice by Sosa’s current age anyway.

A couple more seasons like the past couple for Griffey and Sosa will see Sammy officially take the crown for this generation. As noted previously, Alex Rodriguez lurks in the wings, ahead of everybody’s pace, but he needs to play a lot more injury-free baseball before he’s a lock to pass all of the competition.

So there’s the new picture — Sammy Sosa is the new hot contender for the career home run throne. He’ll ahead of Barry Bonds, although a couple more monster seasons from Bonds could make him difficult to catch by mere mortals.

about the author

Dave Paisley's just back from Spring training, where the absolute meaninglessness of the games did not mar the whole sun and fun experience. Why not share your jealous feelings with Dave at drdjp@strikethree.com?