Prospect Report:
The Unimpressive

David Cameron

Welcome back to the Prospect Report, where that sunburn has turned into a nice tan, until I take my watch off, anyways. Last week we dealt with the players who really looked good in Arizona, and this week we're going to touch on those who just didn't show me a whole heck of a lot. Keep in mind, the samples are ridiculously small and spring training isn't all that important anyway, so don't drastically change the way you think of these players. Think of it like AFLAC-supplemental information.

I was pleasantly surprised to see Dennis Tankersley (#7 on the Top 100) pitch against the Rockies. I knew he wasn't having a terrific spring and didn't expect to see him in a Cactus League matchup. I almost wish I hadn't. I first saw Tank at the Futures Game in Seattle last year, where he was probably the most impressive pitcher there. He mixed up four pitches, all of which had terrific movement, and was throwing in the low 90s. In Arizona, he was sitting between 85-88 and everything looked flat.

Tankersley's arm slot is higher than it was last year, and he's nearly throwing over the top as opposed to his earlier 3/4 delivery. His fastball was easily hittable and he had problems controlling his slider. Combining this with the fact that he got shut down at the end of last year with a "tired arm," I'm a bit worried about Tank's health. There's a decent chance that he's got some damage to his shoulder that he either isn't aware of or isn't disclosing. Either way, I won't be surprised if Tankersley misses some time this year or loses the whole season entirely.

Another pitching casualty in the same game was Dennis Stark, who started for the Rockies and was the leading candidate for their fifth-starter job (which is akin to being next in line for an enema). I'd seen Stark pitch in Tacoma and Seattle last year before he was traded to Colorado as part of the Jeff Cirillo trade. He performed very well in AAA last year, where his average fastball didn't cost him and his control led to a lot of in-play outs.

He used essentially the same strategy against the Padres, but their major-leaguers made him pay. Sean Burroughs absolutely clocked an 87 MPH fastball onto the right-field lawn area. Everything Stark threw over the plate come off the bat hard, and he wasn't fooling anybody. He's shown a decent curveball before, but he wasn't able to get it over the plate. His combination of poor command and under whelming stuff made for a hit parade for San Diego.

Stark's since been roughed up again and is close to being out of contention for the Rockies' rotation. His future may be as a long reliever or spot starter, and he probably doesn't have the velocity to consistently get major-league hitters out for long periods of time.

I got a decent look at Jamal Strong (#64 on Top 100) after he replaced Ichiro in right field during the Mariners-Brewers matchup. Another player I saw for the first time at the Futures Game last year, Strong is a puzzling player. He's fast as the wind; there is no question about that. And unlike most track stars, Strong has a terrific sense of what he's doing at the plate and generates a high on-base percentage by drawing a lot of walks.

He's hit for a high average so far in his stints in the low minors, but after seeing him in person, I'm not sure he'll be able to keep that up. He's very small and doesn't have much upper-body strength. In watching him take BP in Seattle last year and in seeing his at-bats in Arizona, I have yet to see him hit a ball hard. Fastballs seem to eat him alive, and he really doesn't have much bat speed to get around and drive them. He doesn't just lack power; I'm not convinced he can consistently hit the ball out of the infield.

There is some statistical backing for this as well. After hitting .353 in low-A Wisconsin, he moved up to high-A San Bernardino and hit .311. That .311 is deceptive, however. In a six-game stretch against Lancaster, the worst pitching staff in the league, he went 21-41. He hit .248 against everybody else in the Cal League. He then went to winter ball and hit .283 with just five extra-base hits in 92 at-bats.

Strong did work the count and draw a walk in Arizona, and I think he'll be able to maintain some value as a guy who can get on base and steal bases. However, he might not have the physical abilities to drive the ball enough to hit more than .260-.270 in the big leagues, and that will inhibit his value as a full time player.

Already 23 years old, Strong will go to AA San Antonio and try to move up the ladder, though its clear he's been passed on the organizational depth chart by fellow outfielder Chris Snelling. Strong is likely trade bait as long as Cameron and Ichiro stay healthy, and Strong needs to hope he goes to an organization that appreciates his patience and doesn't try to revamp his approach at the plate.

While I hesitate to list him here with the other players who didn't show me anything, Antonio Perez (#54 on Top 100) deserves mention, and I wouldn't qualify his performance in Arizona as impressive. This was my first chance to see Perez in person, and to be honest, he's smaller than I had thought. Mentioned as a power-hitting shortstop after leading the Cal League in slugging percentage in 2000, he's probably 5'9" or 5'10".

On the positive side, Perez did show plus speed in beating out an infield grounder and then stealing second base. However, his claim to fame so far has been his power, and I'm not sure I see it. His bat speed is average and he doesn't get a lot of lift on the ball. He did hit a long, 300-foot opposite-field fly out, but that was on a mistake pitch left out over the plate. He also showed a lack of selection at the plate, chasing pitches he really should have laid off.

Perez doesn't look like a power hitter, and his only season showing much of it came in the bandbox that is the Hangar in Lancaster. After missing all of last season with a power-sapping wrist injury, Perez needs to prove that he can drive the ball this year in AA San Antonio. If not, he profiles as much the same player the Mariners currently have manning shortstop in Carlos Guillen.

Oh, and while you're here, take a gander at this week's Prospect Ten. While my colleague Jason Barker did a terrific job identifying the likely top rookies this year, I deal with ten names that are getting next to no publicity this spring who could come from out of nowhere and have a solid major-league season. Not that I expect anyone to ever repeat the ridiculous rookie year that was Albert Pujols' 2001, mind you.

about the author

David Cameron does expect a few players to repeat the rookie year that was Jack Wilson's 2001. Suggest Wily Mo Pena at dac@strikethree.com.