NL Rookies to Watch

Jason Michael Barker

If you missed my AL Rookies to Watch from last week, rush right over and check it out, then get back here with the rest of us.

Before moving on to the National League, I was remiss in leaving Minnesota's Michael Cuddyer off my American League list. Cuddyer, who is in the mix for the right field job this spring, hit 30 homers at AA last season and has serious power potential. His full line was .301/.395/.560 with 75 walks in 509 at-bats, and he's the best immediate hope the Twins have of getting more pop in their offense.

Moving on...

The Diamondbacks have Mark Grace, a first baseman who hits for doubles, average and draws walks while not providing the power traditionally associated with the position. In Lyle Overbay, who hit .352/.423/.528 at AA last year, they have a Grace clone who's both younger and cheaper. There are few questions about Overbay's bat; the question is how he's going to get out from behind Grace and Eurbiel Durazo. The most likely answer is that he'll have to wait until 2003, barring an injury or the successful completion of the "Free Eurbiel Durazo!" campaign.

Every year, Bobby Cox cobbles together a bullpen that more or less gets the job done. The names may change, but the parts remain the same: the rookie, the washed up veteran, the hard-throwing righty with suspect control, etc. This year the part of the rookie will be played by one Tim Spooneybarger, who has both good stuff and a great name. At AAA last year he posted a microscopic 0.71 ERA while fanning 58 men in 50.1 innings and allowing just 33 hits. Relievers in general aren't all that exciting, but you should watch Spooneybarger this year. And you have to love that name.

The Cubs won't win the NL Central this year, but there's a pretty good reason people are expecting big things from them in the next three years or so. Actually, there are three pretty good reasons: Juan Cruz, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano. Throw in hitters like Hee Seop Choi, Bobby Hill, Nic Jackson and David Kelton, and you're looking at what has been called the best farm system in baseball.

Cruz blew away hitters at both AA and in the majors last season, and despite mysteriously aging two years this off-season, should find himself in the starting rotation come opening day. He already throws three plus pitches - 95 MPH fastball, hard slider, good changeup - and got his feet wet with eight starts in the majors last season, during which he struck out nearly a batter an inning.

Prior, the so-called Greatest College Pitcher Ever (tm), will begin the year at AA but could find himself in the majors by June. He's the complete package, including excellent mechanics and a flawless health record. Zambrano is even younger than Cruz and pitched at AAA last year, though his lack of a third pitch could mean a return to the bullpen. Even without a third offering, he throws 95 with a hard slider and could help in the pen immediately.

While Adam Dunn was busy tearing it up at three levels last season, his former partner in crime Austin Kearns was struggling to recover from a thumb injury that held him back at AA. Finally healthy for the Arizona Fall League, Kearns hit a robust .371/.460/.578 and regained his prospect status. He'll likely begin the year at AAA, but he should slot in quite nicely with Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. by August, or as soon as the Reds tire of Juan Encarnacion's outmaking ways.

The rumors have subsided somewhat, so it appears Jack Cust might start the year in Colorado after all. It remains to be seen how long he'll stay there - his bat is awesome, but he really needs to be a full-time DH, and it not as if the Rockies can hide him at first base what with that Helton guy there. At the same time, Cust's bat would be wasted as a pinch-hitter. It might take a bit of overpaying, but there has to be an American League team out there smart enough to grab Cust and give him 500 at-bats. It's not unreasonable to think he might hit 40 homers in Coors if left alone.

Josh Beckett is the number one pitching prospect in baseball. Everyone knows the risks and caveats that go along with that title, but someone has to wear that hat, right? Like Mark Prior, Beckett is the complete package: mid-90's fastball that touches 97 at times, big breaking curveball, a changeup that's getting better and great control of everything he throws. At three levels (A+, AA, MLB) last year he was a combined 16-3 with a 1.53 ERA, striking out 203, walking only 34 and allowing just 82 hits in 140 innings. He's only 22 years old and has a history of elbow and shoulder soreness, so the Marlins need to be very, very careful with him.

The Houston Astros have a pair of rookies who should make an impact this season in Carlos Hernandez and Morgan Ensberg. Hernandez you probably know - he pitched very well in three starts for the Astros last year before injuring his shoulder sliding headfirst into third base (if this isn't an argument for the DH, I don't know what is). He's back, the shoulder is healthy, and he's got the inside track on the fifth starter job this spring. Hernandez throws hard (as high as 95) for lefty and mixes in a very good curveball, and struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings over his minor league career.

Ensberg is a less heralded prospect, primarily because he's already 26 years old. He can hit, though, so don't let his age fool you. After a very good AA campaign in 2000, he came back to slug 23 homers in 316 AAA at-bats last year, while hitting .310 and drawing enough walks for a .397 OBP. His defense at third is better than advertised, he'll take a walk and has some pop. What's not to like?

I don't really know what to make of Kazuhisa Ishii, but he deserves a mention at the very least. If you had told people Ichiro Suzuki was going to hit .350 and win the AL MVP last year they would have laughed at you, so making any sort of prediction about Ishii seems a fruitless exercise. All that said, people love predictions so I'll make one anyway: 180 innings and a 3.50 ERA. Pitching half his games in Dodger Stadium, I have a hard time believing he'll suck.

Finally we come to the Padres, who have revamped their entire infield this winter to make room for Sean Burroughs and Ramon Vazquez. Burroughs you know - he projects as a .300 hitter in the majors right away, with good strikezone judgement, solid defense and developing power. Phil Nevin has moved across the diamond to first, while Ryan Klesko has taken his act to the outfield. Both parties were initially said to be grumbling about the moves, but after seeing Burroughs in camp changed their tunes.

Vazquez takes over at shortstop for D'Angelo Jiminez, who slides over to a much better defensive fit at second. Acquired this winter in the deal that sent Ben Davis to Seattle, Vazquez is a steady defender who posted a breakout offensive season at AAA, hitting .300/.397/.429 with 76 walks in 466 at-bats. At 25 he isn't particularly young, but he's certainly no liability on a club featuring Nevin, Burroughs and Klesko that should be the best in their division in the very near future.

about the author

Unfortunately for the rest of the Strikethree.com staff, we don't know what to expect of Jason Michael Barker, either. If you've got any ideas -- any ideas at all -- shoot 'em on over to jmb@strikethree.com.