Baseballhead:
To Say The East

Michael Cox

Well, howdy, neighbor! Baseballhead here again, ready to take you for a joyride, right after we grouse a bit about all the damn college kids playing basketball on our TVs.

That faint sobbing you're hearing is coming from the first round of spring training cuts. However, what's heartbreak for a young prospect is good for you and me, because it means the regulars will be playing more in the couple of weeks leading up to the regular season. That means that starting soon, any team broadcaster not knowing the name of a player on the field may be suffering from senility.

Other spring happenings of note:

Padres and Angels start the first brawl of the season. San Diego and Anaheim, a volatile mixture in the first place due to the omnipresent frustration of losing, scuffled on Saturday after Angel hurler Aaron Sele hit Ryan Klesko in the back with a fastball. Klesko charged the mound and was duly ejected, and next batter Phil Nevin launched one. Best revenge and all, right?

But no. In the bottom of the inning Bobby Jones nailed Troy Glaus, another brouhaha ensued -- and Klesko, apparently not yet satisfied with the length of his potential suspension, ran out in his street clothes to join the second fracas. After the game, the usual blaming of each other commenced. "You can't take liberties throwing at people's heads,'' Glaus said in a statement apparently transcribed from old file footage.

Red Sox fire Joe Kerrigan. Go figure. So far, the team has quickly interviewed Grady Little and Mike Cubbage right at the Sox' camp, then spirited Felipe Alou off to an "undisclosed location," likely one with liquor.

The club has said they plan on interviewing former Yankee and Diamondback skipper Buck Showalter, apparently because they're impressed with his former clubs' World Series records the years after he was fired. Don't be surprised if they sign Showalter for 2001 and Alou for 2002.

Bob Gibson gets into roadside fistfight. Gee, and Gibson was always such a mild-tempered guy. Go figure.

Da Boss waits to speak with Doc Gooden after alcohol-related arrest. Steinbrenner, the acknowledged leader in Major-League-Baseball Steve-Howe­kind of last chances, is likely to reprimand Gooden because neither drugs nor prostitutes were involved.

Enough. It's time for the final set of Baseballhead predictions, and we've saved the best for last. Well, actually we haven't, but it might make folks in Philly feel better, so we'll run with it.

Last year those Phillies overcame all odds, including the historic abilities (or lack thereof) of many on their roster, to actually lead the NL East for much of the season. It didn't hurt that the once-mighty Braves were oafish and shiftless for much of the campaign, only turning on the jets for the final weeks of the season.

Meanwhile, the Mets made like Hanson's second album, the Marlins started to show the promise of youth, and the Expos' motto was apparently "Come Watch Us Contract" (only it was probably in French).

Did the Braves improve enough to stave off a massively rejiggered Mets? Will the Phils regret giving that second year to Jose Mesa? Can the Fish make the most of their youngsters? Should the Expos just contract already and spare their seven remaining fans the pain?

Let's begin with the obvious...

5. Montréal Expos.

Les Expos enter their lame-duck season the lamest of ducks, essentially in receivership and saddled with a manager whose most well-known trait is that he hates pitchers. Former owner Jeffrey Loria left in such bad faith that he even took the team's scouting reports. Any other incoming ownership would sue Loria's pants off over the state (or more precisely, province) in which he left this club.

But MLB, like the fans, the media, and local governments large and small, just don't care. This is a team that has been left to die. Even if MLB did approve a local ad budget to try and bring in fans, their legendary marketing ineptitude would ensure the opposite ("as God is our witness, we swear we thought they spoke German up there").

It's unfortunate, because the team itself won't be too bad, considering the rotation stays healthy and Frank Robinson manages to teach the hitters some patience. If you live in or near Montréal, go to a damn game, alright? At the very least, you'll be able to sit anywhere, and if you yell something, chances are it'll get on TV.

4. Philadelphia Phillies.

This season, my friends, is likely to be what we in the bidness call "regression to the mean." Those of us who watched this team last year couldn't help but notice the parallels with the movie Major League. It was a club almost constructed with failure in mind. Rheal Cormier? Jose Mesa? Brian Hunter? Both Brian Hunters??

That 2001 team even survived the management decision to dis Scott Rolen early and often (which, sadly, may have been a ploy to anger Rolen into refusing to re-sign, making him the "bad guy" and not the team). The odds were stacked against them, and they ended up only a Mike Lieberthal knee injury away from the division title.

This year will either see the Phils return to earth, or a postseason court appearance in which Larry Bowa attempts to get out of his contract with Beelzebub. Mesa has never had two great seasons in a row. The team made its major offseason acquisition Terry Adams, apparently thinking he was the guy from NRBQ. On the other hand, they did shed their remaining Brian Hunter, which is an offensive boost regardless of the replacement (I say this hoping the team doesn't make a sentimental trade for Pete Incaviglia).

Still, a team with Lieberthal, Rolen and Bobby Abreu in its lineup can't be all bad, but woe betide Mesa after he blows nine or ten saves -- the "faithful" in Philly can make the Met fans' treatment of John Rocker look like a tribute day.

3. Florida Marlins.

The Oakland Athletics. The San Diego Padres. The Florida Marlins. Which of these young teams is not like the others?

Answer: The A's and Pads are teams whose youth movements are coming to fruition. The Marlins' -- I'm not sure where it thinks it's headed. The team's best offensive seasons last year were had by a 28-year-old (Cliff Floyd) and a 30-year-old (Kevin Millar). Alex Gonzalez doesn't seem to care (send him to Montréal...and give him a drink!). You'll notice that no one mentions the bullpen.

Contrast that with a potentially stellar rotation, and you have a team going in two directions. If I were new Marlins GM Larry Beinfest -- and I know I am not -- I would trade at least one of my starters for a damn good third baseman and a shortstop who cares.

Barring that, the Marlins should finish at or over .500 this year, while losing a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 ballgames. Now if Loria can just use the same marketing magic on the apathetic Miami crowd that he used to pack Le Stade Olympique last year...

2. New York Mets.

The Mets, one year removed from a World Series appearance, did the crash-and-burn we expected from the Phillies, yet for the first time in years not a soul is uttering the words "Bobby Valentine" and "fired" in the same sentence. How doggone freakin' weird is that? (Gosh-darn these family websites!)

Steve Phillips went on an offseason shopping spree, and beyond the obvious willpower involved in not picking up a young female "assistant" for himself, he did an exemplary job of plugging some major holes. Acquiring solid hitters (Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, and Mo Vaughn if he feels like it), bullpen help (David Weathers, Satoru Komiyama) and serviceable starters (Pedro Astacio, Shawn Estes). Most of the 25-man roster this year will need a Thomas Guide to find the ballpark.

What you have to wonder, though, is whether the past couple of seasons represent the way the Mets will run their team going forward -- pick up good veterans on their downside, let your expensive team win the division or wild card once or twice, then collapse under its own weight, and start again. That kind of rent-a-team mentality would get annoying after a while. Even Steinbrenner doesn't do that anymore.

Note to Phillips for future contract negotiations: Apparently Piazza believes a buck is worth a lot these days.

1. Atlanta Braves.

Second verse, same as the first. (Yes, I understand that obscure references are what got Dennis Miller fired. These are baseball fans. They're smarter.)

This is the real reason I left the NL East for last -- there's just no way to not pick the Braves to finish first. Again. And it's still primarily due to their starting rotation, along with just enough offense to get by. They're an easier pick than the frickin' Yankees, for the love of Pete (I saw part of ESPN's Season On The Brink TV-movie, and real swear words are now officially overrated). Shoot me now.

The Native Americans even upped their offense by picking up Gary Sheffield at a bargain rate. The "time 'til Sheffield hates his current team" clock has now been reset and is ticking (no doubt causing our recent airport strip-search). In the process, the club rid themselves of Brian "Average-Man, And I Don't Mean Batting Average" Jordan.

On the down side, Vinny Castilla's season at Enron served to inflate his stock just like his old days at Coors Field did, and the Braves are going to play the role of the Devil Rays as history repeats itself. This anticipated nosedive means Atlanta has no offensive strength at the corners, which is where strength mormally lies. Fortunately, Chipper Jones will still be available for a move back to third (or on the infinitesimally remote chance that Castilla plays as hoped, at first).

Again Bobby Cox is expected to do McGyver-like wonders with a generic-brand bullpen, save for converted closer John Smoltz (no pun intended, honest). And the wisdom of bringing back Albie Lopez is questionable, until you realize we're talking about a fifth starter here, then it's "ehhhh..."

In the end, the Braves come out where they have every season but one for an entire decade now. My bold prediction: for the playoffs, the entire Atlanta metropolitan area refuses to buy tickets to anything other than the World Series, so all the Braves' Division Series home games are moved from Turner Field to the studio where they used to tape WCW Saturday Night.

about the author

Michael Cox would really like it if you folks in Atlanta would show a bit of enthusiasm this year. Send your finest cheers to mc@strikethree.com. Extra points if you work in the word "crampons."