Prospect Report:
Wait 'Til Next Year

David Cameron

First off, I just wanted to say thanks to everyone who e-mailed me in response to the Top 100. I was amazed at how positive most of your responses were, and how few times I was called an idiot.

This week, I look ahead even further in the future. Which prospects stand a chance to be at the top of that list next year? That will take a combination of factors. You have to have a good year, but not good enough that you get to the majors and lose your eligibility. Adam Dunn would have fought Josh Beckett for the number one spot on the list, but he was so good that he ended up in Cincinnati. Health is also a big factor. Everyone knew Beckett had amazing talent, but he hadn't stayed healthy for a full season before. So, who will break out well enough to be on the tips of everyone's tongues next year, yet not get a full time job in 2002?

I'm sure I'll get a few cracks for taking the safe road, but its hard not to imagine Mark Prior being number one on this list next year. I ranked him number four this year and he hasn't thrown a professional pitch. The three guys ahead of him are locks to lose their eligibility this year, and I don't see anyone passing Prior unless he gets hurt. The Cubs have enough pitching depth that he can split the year between AA and AAA before making his major-league debut in September. Expect numbers similar to what Beckett put up last year.

The Rangers look likely to land the number-two prospect in baseball for a second consecutive year, with Mark Teixeira making his professional debut. He's got little chance of making an impact this year, with the corners firmly entrenched with Blalock and Palmeiro. The man they call T-Rex should start the year in AA. He may struggle at first, but I don't doubt he'll have a solid season after converting to the wood bat.

Jake Peavy is a bit of a risk, because there's a decent chance he'll earn a rotation spot after the All-Star break if he continues to develop. The Padres have the makings of a contending team who need only a front-of-the-line starter, and Peavy could be that in the second half. However, with Dennis Tankersley ahead of him, I'm betting that Peavy won't make full-time contributions until 2003. Don't worry, Padre fans; he's worth waiting for.

I am really high on Justin Morneau. He was overmatched in his first exposure to AA at the end of the season, but I have little doubt he'll hit there like he did in Quad City and Fort Myers in 2001. He's got a great approach at the plate and is just now filling out. His power will come this year, and he was already a terrific line-drive hitter. He's next year's Carlos Pena.

The draft class of 2001 gets their third member of the top five with Gabe Gross. He had a tremendous pro debut after signing, holding his own in AA after tearing up Dunedin. He could probably help the Blue Jays this year, but their glut of outfielders will allow them to be patient with the former Auburn star. If Prior, Teixeira, and Gross all reach their potential, the 2001 draft will go down as one of the best in recent history.

There was talk the Braves would give Wilson Betemit a chance to make the club this year after a strong finish to the 2001 season in AA. However, signing Vinny Castilla to play third base makes that unlikely. Betemit isn't as close as some think, and the Braves have no need to push him quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if he struggled to begin the year, as he's still a young kid learning how to hit.

If (when?) Vinny Castilla gets hurt, we could see Betemit this year. It will probably be similar to Alfonso Soriano's rough debut in 2000. Betemit has a lot of talent, but he's rough and needs more polish.

The Giants should, for once, be patient with Jerome Williams. He's been pushed quickly and his performances haven't been as good as his talent level represents. With Kurt Ainsworth ahead of him, there's not much of a reason for Williams to reach San Francisco this year, so a full year in AAA is quite likely. Don't be surprised if he really hits the switch and turns into a terrific pitcher. His numbers may not be gaudy, as he's in the PCL, but he'll have scouts raving.

Hee Seop Choi has as much raw power as any player in the minor leagues. His struggles through a tough 2001 may be good for him, and with Fred McGriff on board in Chicago, he'll have a chance to regain some confidence by lighting up AAA this year. There's very little Choi can't do, and he should make people remember why he was ranked so highly a year ago.

Chris Snelling should begin his assault on the left-field job in Seattle this year. He'll be playing in AA as a 20-year-old in a tremendous pitcher's park, so don't expect eye-popping numbers. I think the Mariners would be happy with a .310/.380/.450 season, which is quite similar to what Sean Burroughs put up in his AA campaign. Like Burroughs, Snelling will likely get to the majors without large power numbers, but should develop once he gets there.

If you want power numbers, Kevin Mench is your man. There's a decent chance he won't end the year with the Texas Rangers, but he could be tremendous trade bait at the deadline when John Hart needs a pitcher. Mench has shown patience and power at different times, and I won't be surprised to see a fully healthy Mench show the complete package again. He'll start somewhere in 2003, it just probably won't be in Texas.

David Cameron's numbers are actually quite gaudy. Suggest that it's due to his choice of a magenta/puce color scheme at dac@strikethree.com.

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