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Michael Cox

Well, hi there and thanks for shopping at Baseballhead! Before we get to the meat 'n' taters, what the h-e-double-hockeysticks were the Grammy people smoking this year? I stopped watching sometime in the third hour, well after they stopped letting Jon Stewart be funny.

Then U2 gets cut off by crappy music after 20 seconds when they win the freakin' Record Of The Year, but Grammy head honcho Michael "Selig of the Music Industry" Greene gives himself what seemed like hours to rant about "ripping" (he apparently had never heard the word before, but had been assured by the record companies that it was killing music). I think it was the same speech he made 20 years ago, with "home taping" crossed out and "downloading" written in.

Of course, CBS is blaming the ceremony's crappy ratings on the theory that nobody knew it was on.

OK, enough already, or I'm gonna have to retitle this column "Musichead." Or "Radiohead." Or "Travis." Let's briefly touch on some spring happenings (and then wipe our hands with the provided moist towelettes) before the predictions begin:

Dan Duquette fired as Red Sox GM. John Henry kicks Duquette to the curb within 24 hours of officially taking control of the Sox, stating it was "a difficult decision." Yep, that must've been the hardest ten minutes of thinking Henry's ever done.

The statistically-inclined are taking great pains to note that Duquette has been a great judge of talent. What they aren't mentioning is that Duquette seemed to sincerely believe that every move he made was correct, and that he spent the past couple of seasons using the team as his personal experiment to prove that "chemistry" doesn't impact team performance. He had the greatest hands-off ownership in MLB to aid and abet his megalomania, and if he can replicate the Sox' success on a team with an MLB-average budget, I'll eat tofu.

Jeff Kent breaks his wrist while washing his car. How many times must I say this: hock up the extra three bucks and use the drive-thru.

Andy Pettitte in hot water with Da Boss because his son wore a little-league Mets cap. No, this was seriously a problem. Pettitte was called into a closed-door meeting with GM Brian Cashman over this. People in high places in the Yankee organization now officially require lives.

Mets again wear NYPD and FDNY caps in pre-game ceremony. Commemorative, or just a ploy to fool Steinbrenner into banning NYPD and FDNY caps?

Moving on, last year's AL Central saw the Astros demonstrating that '00 was just a fluke after all, racing the Cards to another of those photo-finishes where although nobody actually won the division outright, it was awarded on the equivalent of penalty kicks. The aforementioned Redbirds settled for the wild card despite the loss of mark McGwire, who became possibly the first player to admit he would retire simply because he sucked. (Earth is still trying to reach Pete Incaviglia on that score.)

While the Cubs surprised a lot of people (possibly including their own fans) by contending for most of the season, after third place the Central dropped off considerably, with the Reds, Pirates and the Selig Family Players all making a serious run at 100 losses. The Bucs ended up achieving that pinnacle of futility, but hey, ain't PNC Park niiiice?

This offseason the Cubs made a raft of changes, the 'Stros concentrated on removing Enron logos from their ballpark, the Cards replaced Mac with Tino "Please don't Boo Me" Martinez, and Ken Griffey Jr. got insulted by former teammates. How will this affect the standings? Let's begin with the laggards...

6. Pittsburgh Pirates.

Far from making a real attempt to improve their squad for their new ballpark, the Bucs have instead followed the same profit-taking theory that last year made the Brewers the richest team to ever cry poverty. Add to that the fact that Pittsburgh were the team who lost the game of Pokey Reese hot-potato, and you've got trouble with a capital 'C.' (Okay, so it's been a while since I last saw The Music Man.)

On the other hand, I'd bet good money that the Pirates won't lose 100 games again. Okay, maybe not really good money, but it's safe to assume that Jason Kendall will play better than he did last year, and that Dave Littlefield is no Cam Bonifay (although signing Reese is not a good way of convincing the fans of that). Littlefield did get the better of the trade with the White Sox that sent Todd Ritchie to Chicago for Kip Wells, Josh Fogg and Sean Lowe.

Still, it's going to be a rough season for those fans at PNC Park who actually care about the game on the field. The only team in this division as oafish and shiftless as the Pirates is...

5. Milwaukee Brewers.

The good citizens of Milwaukee should be marching on Miller Park with pikes and torches after Bud Selig himself told Congress that his family made an unequaled profit from a team whose concession to fielding a competitive squad was to convince fans that Jeffrey Hammonds was a quality free agent.

But no, Milwaukeeans stayed by their warm and efficient pellet stoves, while their club spent this offseason convincing fans that Matt Stairs was a quality acquisition. You're getting the team you deserve, Milwaukee.

And Stairs is simply an inferior replacement for Jeromy Burnitz, who the Beermakers traded to Flushing for the incredibly mediocre Glendon Rusch. Burnitz drew fire as the poster boy for the team's high strikeout rate, but lost was the fact that he actually got on base and hit for power too. Judging from the Brewers' farm reports, the strikeout problem lies with the organization's instructors, and as long as the Selig family relies on day laborers for their minor-league coaching staffs it's going to continue to be an issue.

The hope for Milwaukee lies in its youngsters -- primarily its pitching staff and newcomer Izzy Alcantara, who made no friends among baseball's old-timers when he mule-kicked a catcher in the minors. No word on whether that move violates any of manager Davey Lopes' unwritten rules.

The outlook for Brewers fans in 2002? The Selig family continues to play you for suckers.

4. Cincinnati Reds.

As we've all been finding out this offseason, the reason the Reds tanked last year wasn't that they fired a perfectly good manager, their general manager's chronic failure to find even one great pitcher, or the Mendoza-line slide of the once-promising Pokey Reese. No sir, it was because Ken Griffey Jr. had his own stretching regimen. It's the Barry Bonds leather-chair fiasco all over again. Wake me when it's over (or when the cinnamon rolls are fresh out of the oven, whichever comes first).

In reality, Griffey did play a part in Cincy's losing ways last season, but it was because he was either injured or playing hurt for most of the year. Add Barry Larkin's owie to the mix and it's lights out. As for Griffey's clubhouse demeanor, if people at a certain major sports network insisted my first name was "Junior," I'd be a bit reclusive too.

A healthy Griffey and Larkin alone should keep the Reds out of the cellar. Add Sean Casey and last year's late-season phenom Adam Dunn, and fourth place is a lock. Unfortunately, that's about as far as it goes, due to extreme lack of pitching. When Brian Bohanon and Jimmy Haynes are major pitching acquisitions, there's a problem.

Here's a scary thought: the Reds jettison GM Jim "Remember When I Was A Genius?" Bowden and hire Duquette. Presto -- a GM with an eye for pitching, plus anyone who complains about Griffey finds himself on the receiving end of a ticket to Tampa Bay. Also, that'd keep Duquette away from teams I like.

3. Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs are a team on the upswing, with a great balance of available cash and young talent in the pipeline. Okay, so the cash only becomes "available" after providing the Tribune Co. spreadsheets and Powerpoint presentations proving the ROI for each acquisition. And the talent has to actually make it past some of the golden-years veterans the team picks up to keep the casual fans filling Wrigley.

Still, it's good to know that the team is making some decent moves, and that if the entire club were to mutiny you could field a major-league-quality squad by simply calling up the entire AAA roster.

During the offseason Andy McPhail actually made a couple of his better aging-veteran moves, bringing back Fred McGriff after his short audition last year, and acquiring Moises Alou, who could have major impact if he stays healthy (I'm not saying he's injury-prone, but don't let him near Jeff Kent's truck).

While the lineup continues to be hard to crack for younger players, the Cubs are slipping more and more young pitchers into the mix, and the good results they're getting should only encourage McPhail to experiment further. The biggest problem I see with the Cubs is manager Don Baylor, who sincerely believes that bunting and basestealing is all you need to win games. Replace him with a peeled cucumber and the team wins five more games, guaranteed.

2. Houston Astros.

I originally had the 'Stros finishing first, but one question kept bouncing around in my head: what the hell kind of team wins four division titles in five years, then fires their manager? Jimy Williams is a very different managerial type than Larry Dierker, and who knows how that'll affect the club. It would truly be sad if in his zeal to win a postseason series, owner Drayton McLane ends up sabotaging the division-winning ways that got the team to the playoffs in the first place.

We'll have to see how Williams manages the change from the Red Sox' high-salary pitching staff to Houston's hot-shot youngsters. Roy Oswalt is going to be under more pressure than he was as a rookie last year, as thousands of fans at Currently Unnamed Field pin their pennant hopes to his hairless young chest. Also, Morgan Ensberg will be making his big-league debut as the Houstons' opening-day third baseman -- it's up to Williams to prove that the only reason he didn't play Alcantara last year was that mule kick.

Notice I haven't mentioned either Jeff Bagwell or Craig Biggio in this preview. That's because I shouldn't have to, and because Bagwell decided not to go ZZ Top on us again.

1. St. Louis Cardinals.

Questions, questions, questions. Is it possible that Albert Pujols' rookie year was an amazing fluke? (Is it possible that I could receive hate mail from eastern Missouri for even suggesting it?) Can Rick Ankiel successfully complete his switch to decaf and return to Busch Stadium without inadvertently hitting the mascot with every other pitch? Is this the year umpires finally get wise and not allow Fernando Vina to take first base when he dives into a pitch? Can J.D. Drew be both healthy and good in the same season?

If the answers to these questions are all "that's a roger," there's a pennant race in the cards for the Cards.

Then we move to the next level: Can Tony La Russa continue to hold together the rotation past Matt Morris and Darryl Kile without bursting a blood vessel? Forget making people forget about McGwire (who, by the way, was the best .187 hitter in baseball history last year) -- can Tino Martinez even stay above league average at first base? Will new closer Jason Isringhausen not be abducted by aliens, nor lose a fight to the death with Mark McLemore over the last in-stock iMac at Best Buy?

If the comebacks to these queries are all "uh, yussir," you've got yourself a division winner.

You don't want to know the questions you'll have to answer to make it to the Series. Suffice to say, they involve Borg implants, Miss Cleo, and advanced calculus.

about the author

Michael Cox would have loved to do tables and charts to show how he came to these predictions, but Excel doesn't have a tea-leaf scatter chart option. Suggest an artist's impression of the runes he cast at mc@strikethree.com.