Prospect Report:
Listing Heavily

David Cameron

Spring Training is officially upon us. Jose Canseco has a new team, Dwight Gooden is drunk driving, the Yankees are learning how to adapt to their new star player, and pitching prospects are getting hurt. Without an actual game to get hurt in, both Matt Wheatland of the Tigers and Jeff Heaverlo of the Mariners are lost for the year due to arm problems.

More bad news for Detroit on the prospect front as a young third-base prospect, Ryan Raburn, will also miss all of 2002 with an injury, and first-round pick Kenny Baugh has predictably developed soreness in his throwing shoulder. I'll be surprised if Baugh makes it through the year without surgery.

Of course, that didn't stop me from ranking Baugh #47 on the Top 100 Prospects list last week. This week, we're going to look at the breakdown of that list. Below I've sorted teams by how many prospects they have on the list.

8 players: Seattle
7 players: Cubs
6 players: San Diego, Houston, Texas, Yankees
5 players: White Sox, Atlanta, Minnesota, Toronto
4 players: Florida, Detroit
3 players: San Francisco, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Montreal
2 players: Oakland, Colorado, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston, Mets, Cleveland
1 player: Milwaukee, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles
0 players: St. Louis, Arizona

The Cubs generally are considered to have the best farm system in baseball, and it showed as they landed seven players in the Top 100. This was second to only the Mariners, who had eight but don't have the depth of talent in the 100-200 range that the Cubs do. The Cubs would have easily had eight if they hadn't wasted Corey Patterson's eligibility for some pointless at-bats in Chicago last year.

Often times the hype isn't justified, but Jim Hendry, one of the best minds in the game right now, has brilliantly developed the Cubs system. It really is that good, and Cub fans should get to see a large infusion of young talent over the next two years.

On the other side of things, two clubs didn't land a single player on the Top 100. The Arizona Diamondbacks would have had one, but they traded Jack Cust to Colorado for a left-handed reliever, in one of those "we may be champs, but we still don't know what we're doing" moves.

The Diamondbacks' system is really quite empty. Jesus Cota and Scott Hairston could be on this list next year if they can repeat their big seasons at a higher level, but I didn't seriously consider one Arizona prospect for the Top 100. The D-Backs are an old team with very little help on the way.

The other club who failed to land a prospect on the list is the St. Louis Cardinals, whose farm system is much more productive than a team like Arizona's. The Cardinals are simply in a down cycle. They've sent young stars Bud Smith, Albert Pujols, and Rick Ankiel to the majors in the past two years, but the Cards won't threepeat, as that exodus has left the minors in a bit of a stale period. They do a good job developing young players and I wouldn't be surprised to see several step forward in 2002.

There are two organizations whose depth really isn't reflected in the Top 100. Houston landed six players on the list, which certainly puts them in the upper echelon on farm systems. However, they could have certainly had several more. Tim Redding just missed out on eligibility, having thrown five too many innings in the majors. Anthony Pluta and Brad Lidge were two of the last cuts I made and I think both have the potential to be quality major league pitchers.

You'll hear organizational hype for Chad Qualls and Mike Nannini, though I'm not as high on them as most. Toss in a terrific relief prospect in Kirk Saarloos, a top-notch defensive shortstop in Adam Everett, and an intriguing middle infielder with power in Tom Whiteman, and the Astros have one of the deepest farm systems around.

While the Top 100 simply hides how good the Astros' system is, it does a disservice to the strength of the Anaheim Angels' system, which is probably the most unheralded in baseball. Bill Stoneman has collected a terrific group of arms, but all of them just have enough question marks that they individually could not quite crack the list. John Lackey, Chris Bootcheck, Bobby Jenks, Joe Torres, and Francisco Rodriguez all have major-league rotation potential, however. I like Bootcheck the best of the bunch, and he's probably the closest to making an impact in Anaheim.

The Angels' only entry was Casey Kotchman, who snuck in at #99 due to limited pro exposure after being drafted out of high school, but he's going to move up this list very quickly. Kotchman has tremendous skills for a player his age and the Angels won't be cautious in pushing him. He could be in the majors as soon as 2003, and his low ranking on the list has very little to do with his potential.

Kotchman has what it takes to be a star in the big leagues; he just needs some more seasoning. Don't judge the Angels system by their poor showing in the Top 100. They have a quality farm system and it's on the way up.

Of these 100 players, there were 65 hitters and 35 pitchers, which worked out nicely. Major-league rosters tend to be about 60 percent hitters and 40 percent pitchers, and I'm a little more conservative ranking young pitchers, so I think that split is just about right.

Of the 35 pitchers, 26 were right-handed, leaving only nine lefties for the list. In hindsight, I may be underrating a few left-handers who don't have the same abilities as their right-handed brethren, but the fact remains that being a southpaw is a tremendous advantage and will serve to get them to the major leagues before their more talented counterparts. J.D. Martin's got a lot of potential, but he's going to get fewer chances than a Matt Riley.

Next week, we'll turn from reflection to projection, as the Prospect Ten returns and I unveil my guess as to the top ten percent of next year's Top 100.

about the author

David Cameron fought off the pain of wisdom-tooth removal to bring you the above article. He'll tell you Tommy John surgery is a cakewalk in comparison if you ask at dac@strikethree.com.