Hot Stove: L'East Difference

Dave Paisley

For the second installment of my annual predictions, I'll be turning to the eastern side of the country. Before I get to that, though, just a word in reply to a faithful reader. He asked why I categorized both Central divisions as awful last week, when one not only produced two playoff teams last year, but for whom I’m also predicting three 90+ win teams this year.

I’ll simply say that of the 11 teams between the two Central divisions, five are pretty awful, three are average but struggling and the other three have promise, but have proven fragile in recent postseason contention. Overall, not a pretty picture.

Moving on, here's a quick recap of my cunning prediction methods: I took all thirty major league baseball teams and figured out a rough starting lineup and pitching rotation for each. Then I calculated an average OPS for the starting lineup, and an ERA for the rotation, based mostly on last year’s performances. I figured that, on balance, the ups and downs of nine players would even out.

From those OPS and ERA values, I determined team runs scored and allowed based on last year’s team numbers. Then I adjusted them so that the runs scored equaled the runs allowed. (Generally speaking, the starting lineups would score more runs if they had all the ABs, and the top five starters would give up fewer runs if they pitched all the innings.)

Given all that, I then calculated a winning percentage using the time-honored Pythagorean method. I also figured out how much above or below average the offense and defense were, with a combined total. You can see the results in the tables below.

And here’s how the National League ended up as a result:

Team	OPS	ERA	RS	RA	W%	W	Off	Pit/Def	Total
ATL	.778	4.04	812	711	.560	91	1%	11%	13%
NYM	.781	4.46	818	780	.521	84	2%	2%	5%
FLA	.786	4.57	828	797	.517	84	4%	0%	4%
PHI	.757	4.36	770	763	.504	82	-4%	5%	1%
MON	.717	4.67	689	815	.425	69	-14%	-2%	-16%

Not much relief in sight for Braves-haters, it seems. I did think the Mets would come out a little higher, but their offense was so woeful last year that even a significant upgrade only gets them into slightly-above-average territory. Even then, they’re dependent on the return to health and form of Mo Vaughn and Edgardo Alfonzo. And they’re still carrying the offensive black hole known as Rey Ordonez, so that can’t be good.

The Met pitching should be decent as usual, but Astacio, d’Amico and Trachsel are all suspect one way or another. Overall, there’s nothing much to write home about based on this analysis.

The surprise here is, of course, the Marlins. Although last year they ended up pretty even in runs scored and allowed, they just didn’t get the results on the field to match. Given the turmoil of new ownership (the same guy that ran the Expos into the ground) I’ll be surprised if the Marlins exceed these expectations of middle-of-the-roadity. I wouldn’t be surprised if they underperformed again, though.

Then there’s the Phillies. Unexpectedly good last year, there’s not much reason to think they can pull off that kind of fluke run twice in a row. Not much offense once you get past Abreu and Rolen. Person, Adams and Wolfe should form a decent pitching nucleus, but after that they’re hoping guys like Duckworth can step up. Too many things will have to go right for the Phils to compete again.

And Montreal, ah, we barely knew thee. Can Omar Minaya and Frank Robinson make anything out of the situation? Others have proposed that they are both in a no-win situation. I tend to think the opposite. If they fail, nobody will think any the worse of them. If they succeed, even modestly, their stock will rise. Not that Robinson needs it, but this could be the kind of high profile break that gets Minaya a top job somewhere next year.

As for the team, I think 70 wins is a realistic target for a halfway successful season, so my prediction of 69 seems about right to me. A weak offense is what will kill the Expos more than anything. Vlad Guerrero, Jose Vidro and a bunch of guys who’ll have a hard time busting through the .700 OPS mark.

As for the aforementioned Braves, their pitching figures to be among the best in the NL again, but they can’t afford to lose Maddux or Glavine at all. Acquiring Gary Sheffield is the kind of stroke of luck they needed to bolster a sagging offense. Now an outfield of Sheffield, Jones and Jones looks like one of the best around, with two MVP candidates and an All-Star.

If Andruw Jones bounces back a bit after an off year, watch out. Not even B. J. Surhoff at first (or whatever hack ends up there) will drag the offense down to last year’s level.

Over in the AL, the picture looks like this:

Team	OPS	ERA	RS	RA	W%	W	Off	Pit/Def	Total
BOS	.796	3.93	849	694	.591	96	6%	13%	19%
NYY	.819	4.46	894	780	.562	91	12%	2%	14%
TOR	.740	4.78	736	832	.444	72	-8%	-4%	-12%
BAL	.732	4.78	721	832	.435	71	-10%	-4%	-14%
TAM	.718	5.28	692	914	.376	61	-13%	-14%	-28%

Oh my God! The Red Sox beating the Yankees? How can this be? Well, let’s take a look.

First, the Red Sox offense is a bit above average, while their pitching is likely to be second in the league behind only Oakland. The Yankees, on the other hand, should boast the most prolific offense in the AL, but have only marginally better-than-average pitching. Why should the Red Sox pitching be better? Well, I’d say that the top three of each team should average out about even, but that the Red Sox will gain in the fourth and fifth starter slots where Sterling Hitchcock and David Wells will probably let the Yankees down.

On offense, the Yankees do promise to put up some big numbers with Giambi, Bernie Williams and Rondell White, backed up by Posada and Nick Johnson. Their lowest OPS regular could be in the .750 range. Scary.

And what of the rest?

Toronto has Carlos Delgado and er, yeah, well, um, those guys. And for pitching they’re relying on Chris Carpenter, Luke Prokopec and Steve Parris. They might be stockpiling some talent, but it isn’t going to help much this year.

Fighting them for third, the Orioles will have to attract crowds some way other than "guess which injury Cal Ripken’s playing with tonight" games. Conine, Hairston, Cordova and Bordick aren’t going to do it.

And finally, battling the Royals for the AL doormat (and a role they have much experience playing) are the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Rays may be the first team in the modern era to trot out a regular lineup without a hitter over a .800 OPS. And possibly the first team to also do it while having no starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.50. Talk about your contraction candidate. Shame about the long lease on the ugly stadium.

Oh well...

about the author

What would the world be like without predictions? Well, it would lack this column for starters. Why not thank Dave Paisley for going out on a limb and giving you something to complain about at drdjp@strikethree.com ?