Baseballhead:
Up Your Middle

Michael Cox

Congratulations! You've survived another Valentine's Day. Your reward is this edition of Baseballhead. Hey, I heard that.

Like a salve for sore brains, the Winter Olympics (motto: "Wanna buy a beret?") came along at just the right time, providing Americans with yet another opportunity to make fun of curling. But then something curious happened -- sports columnists everywhere started providing miles of "expert analysis" about figure skating, when in fact the vast majority of them spent their entire careers actively avoiding anything to do with the sport.

Especially embarrassing was a recent ESPN roundtable composed of sportswriters who could easily replace Adam Carolla if he should ever retire from The Man Show, suggesting in all seriousness that if "they" can award a gold to the Canadians, then "they" should award a retroactive gold to the 1972 US men's basketball team. Lost on the "experts" was the fact that the only thing those two events had in common was that a gold medal was involved.

But don't be fooled, the "experts" will be very happy when they can stop talking about men in stretchy leotards, and begin interviewing men in, er, stretchy doubleknits. And that time is nigh, for the glory that is spring training has begun.

Most of the week's baseball news has been the usual pitchers-and-catchers-report stuff: manager of (insert name here) believes this could be the year, last year's injured star pitcher (insert name here) is back, 100 percent and rarin' to go, and franchise player (insert Scott Rolen's name here) would like to see management collectively fitted for cement Nikes.

Oh, and you may have missed it because your hometown sportswriter was too busy pretending to know figure skating, but MLB went to Congress again. This time, Bud Selig decided to minimize the media hit and send his lawyer instead. The results were predictable -- a whole lot of nothing, punctuated with the "revelation" that there were actually 18 different teams considered for "contraction." Apparently MLB settled on the Twins and Expos only after a painstaking process consisting of the other 16 owners telling Selig where he could stick it.

And sadly, they Padres suffered another loss when Mike Darr was killed in an auto accident. If anything good can come of this, I hope it is that fans and teammates alike remember to use their seat belts from now on.

Moving on to the heartland of the AL...

Last year the masses were shocked and stunned by the amazing Twins, who led the division for much of the season, only fading after experts declared that they were in fact "for real." What should have been more shocking was the Indians' incredibly poor first half. The Tribe managed to apply the defibrulators just in time to streak to the finish, while the Twins sunk back almost to .500-hood. The White Sox lost Frank Thomas early on, and just couldn't make up for the lost offense. The Tigers and Royals were, well, the Tigers and Royals.

Will Cleveland's offseason renovation project keep out the cold winds of losing? Which Thomas will we get: the Big Hurt, or the Big Injury? Is it the Tigers' turn to fool Peter Gammons into picking them as division champs in June? And what of the Professor and Mary Ann?

Here we go, worst team first...

5. Kansas City Royals.

This one has become so automatic, they're considering changing the cliché from "like shooting fish in a barrel" to "like picking the Royals to lose." The Royals are the only team in MLB to have a nationally-known sportswriter devote a weblog to their futility. It's almost like they want to lose (and thanks to Selig's revenue-sharing arrangement, it is mighty profitable).

The team stood about as pat as a team can stand during the offseason, with the sole interesting move being the chance they're taking on Chuck Knoblauch's plummeting career. Perhaps being this far out of the spotlight will help Knoblauch regain his confidence. Perhaps it will just depress him.

I really do want to have a good word or two to say about the Royals, and there are some good reasons to buy a ticket at Kauffman Stadium. Carlos Beltran ought to be great, until he gets traded. The team is deep in good, if not great, starting pitching. Oh, and the Royals' ballpark is still one of the best in the majors, and that's usually enough for Cub fans...

The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. You can use the "small-market team" excuse for not fielding quality players. Keeping Tony Muser, the losingest manager of the past several years, indicates ownership either has no idea, or worse, they know and are happy this way. If it's the latter, be sure to send your thanks to Bud Selig.

4. Detroit Tigers.

Whereas the Royals seem to want to lose, the Tigers just seem to be clueless. Trading away their future for a single season of Juan Gonzalez was possibly one of the most boneheaded deals of the last decade. Last season's multi-player deal with the Astros has so far resulted in absolutely zero return for the Kitties. Detroit is about as major as markets come outside of LA or NY, yet the team resides in the bottom third of payroll.

Fortunately, Mike Illitch got wise and snagged Dave Dombrowski as his new President, perhaps a sign that Illitch is ready to spend on the Tigers like he has on the Red Wings. Although Randy Smith is still in the GM's chair it's probably a safe bet he won't be allowed to play with deal-making implements, and that's a very good thing.

Still, things look bleak at Comerica Park this year. The club is standing by a pitching staff who allowed the third-most runs in their league despite playing home games in an extreme pitchers' park. Jose Lima continued to suffer from the yips he developed at Enron Field. Steve Sparks did well, but modern knuckleballers' stocks go up and down so often they should be sponsored by Otis.

As opposed to the Royals, Detroit has some reason for hope. Dombrowski and manager Phil Garner are an improvement over the guys who were previously in charge. Swapping Juan Encarnacion for Dimitri Young was a deal that took advantage of possibly the only GM dumber than Smith, Reds blunderkind Jim Bowden. SS Omar Infante making a jump from AA ball could add some excitement, and Matt Anderson might save a lot of games if the rest of the staff can manage to get a lead to him.

Barring a major Illitch spending spree, things are likely to remain bleak in Motown for some time, but take heart: just the fact that Dombrowski hasn't yet run screaming is a good sign.

3. Minnesota Twins.

The 2001 Twins were poster children for Cox's Law of Youth: Winning early and often, writers and sports-radio hosts salivated over the wonder that was the Minnesota Twins. Tom Kelly learned not to subject young players to violent pummelings when they make an occasional mistake. We all learned how to pronounce "Mientkiewicz."

But sometime after the All-Star Break, just as fans were actually beginning to venture back into the Metrodome, the team apparently saw its shadow. In the month-and-a-half after the break they went 10-28. People who would say the word "Twins" would immediately follow it with a sharp intake of breath. We learned that "Mientkiewicz" and "overrated" were synonyms (and that winning a Gold Glove at first base is like winning a Grammy for best album cover).

I've got good news and bad news for this season: the good news is that the Twins did absolutely nothing to change the team during the offseason. The bad news is that the Twins did absolutely nothing to change the team during the offseason. Normally, a team who had Minnesota's combination of a solid base of pitching and reasonable offense would replace a part here and there.

But no, Carl Pohlad was too busy planning to spend his contraction payoff and shredding Bud Selig loan documents. So the only changes were the ones forced upon the club: manager Tom Kelly, who has always hated dealing with youngsters, quits after finally getting it right; P Rick Reed, for whom the Twins traded their best OBP guy, is invoking his right to demand a trade or become a free agent.

The bright side is that due to fear of reprisals for making suspect trades which might affect a liquidation draft, this team gets to grow together. The question is which team we'll get: the first-half win machine, or the second-half bag of poop.

My guess is they'll be somewhere in between, which might pack 'em in for dollar hot dog food-fight nights, but won't get near a playoff spot.

2. Cleveland Indians.

Oh, how the mighty are falling. The Tribe has had one hell of a run over the past several years, albeit with nary a World Championship to show for it. But the time comes when every team must either tear down and rebuild or suffer the baseball version of M.C. Hammer: Behind the Music, and in Cleveland, this is that time.

Unfortunately, this rebuilding period comes just as '90s Tribe mastermind John Hart leaves for greener (dollars, that is) pastures in Texas. Out with last year's rent-a-players Juan Gonzalez and Marty Cordova. Out with Kenny Lofton and Dave Burba, who have outlived their usefulness. Out with John Rocker, who...who cares? Just out with him. Out with Roberto Alomar, who...uh, did we say Alomar? Oops.

Sticking around (at least for the moment) are aging slugger Jim Thome, aging shortstop Omar Vizquel, and aging starter Chuck Finley. Fair enough -- keep some fan favorites who still have some upside, to convince those folks from Parma to renew their season tickets. Fine. However, the terms "rebuilding" and "Brady Anderson" should be mutually exclusive.

As most of us saw during the 2001 Division Series, after Bartolo Colon and C.C. Sabathia, the rotation is kinda like Denny's coffee, and while the bullpen was effective, it was tinkered with over the offseason as well. The outfield, consisting of Anderson, also-aging Matt Lawton, and my favorite board-game manufacturer Milton Bradley, is likely to be as wildly uneven as Sabado Gigante.

Until Cleveland feels comfortable enough to bring in more young talent, their "down cycle" will look less like rebuilding and more like a salary dump. Still, when all is said and done, The Tribe will have more offense than almost everyone in their division, and about as much pitching. But watch what you do in the name of retaining a few fans in the short-term -- if the Orioles have served any purpose over the past few years, it should be that of a warning scrawled in blood for teams like the Indians: "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here."

1. Chicago White Sox.

The Sox suffered the biggest setback they could possibly suffer last season -- the loss of Frank Thomas for the entire year -- and they still came within a hair's breadth of second place. As for a couple of other teams in this division, there is good news and bad news for the Pale Hose. The good news: no one messed with the lineup, beyond the addition of Kenny Lofton. The bad news: the pitching staff was done an injury by trading three pitchers, including two perfectly good youngsters, for the completely average Todd Ritchie.

Ritchie's upside: he doesn't get injured much, and pitches deep into ballgames. Of course, any one of the youngsters might have done that, at less cost and with the potential added bonus of better pitching. Still, the Sox retained most of what was good about last year's staff, like Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland, and believe it or not, there's still talent down on the farm. As long as GM Kenny Williams doesn't get suckered into trading his whole AAA rotation for Denny Neagle, everything will be shallots and ham.

Thomas' return should help an offense that was in the upper half even without him last year. Ray Durham, Paul Konerko and Carlos Lee will likely improve. Magglio Ordonez should continue to be known as "the Ordonez who can hit."

The team could improve even further in two easy steps: 1) Bat Ray Durham leadoff and Lofton second. Last year Durham had a better OBP, more stolen bases, and a higher SB conversion rate. Lofton is showing his age, but could be valuable lower in the lineup. 2) Forget about the asinine idea of splitting Jose Valentin's time between third and shortstop and give a full-time job to Joe Crede. Playing positional games just to get Royce Clayton playing time is like developing a motion picture as a vehicle for Mariah Carey.

The AL Central has never been more competitive than it will be this year. Not because the bad teams have, as a whole, gotten better, but because the good teams aren't as good. Lot of good it'll do the Royals and Tigers.

about the author

Michael Cox loves dollar hot dogs. Not to eat, mind you, but just the theory makes him smile. You in Minneapolis may send details of this season's food fights to mc@strikethree.com.