The Long, Long List

David Cameron

For most people, February 14 is about love. Hallmark has convinced America that they should spend hundreds of dollars on flowers, candy, cards, balloons, candles, teddy bears, and the always enjoyable hug-o-grams. People choose emotion over logic, paying twice as much for something this past week than they could have bought it for the week before. The demand for anything pink goes through the roof, and Blockbuster can't keep its stores stocked with The Wedding Planner and other such movies that somehow escaped prosecution from the cruel and unusual punishment law.

But there is good news for all of us who are estrogen-challenged. Pitchers and catchers are reporting to spring training today. Baseball is officially back, and they'll actually start playing games in a few weeks. So if you just spent $99.95 on roses and then got slapped because they weren't long-stem, cheer up. Your refuge is coming. For the next seven months, you can't watch The Princess Diaries because there's a game on tonight. And there's a game on tomorrow. And there's a game the day after that. Isn't baseball great?

38 of those pitchers and catchers reporting today made the cut as members of my top 100 prospects in baseball. The players on this list are ranked by their overall potential and their likelihood of reaching that potential. I'm pretty cautious with young players and those with little professional experience, and I have a feeling most of the disagreements I'm going to hear will have to do with the lower rankings of some guys who have a lot of potential but also come with a substantial amount of risk.

The two toughest players to slot were 2001 draftees Mark Prior (#4) and Mark Teixeira (#11). Neither has any professional experience we can use to gauge their performances, but both are polished college players who could be in the majors in 2002. If both players spend the season in the minors, it's not hard to imagine them ranking number one and two on this same list next year.

There are actually quite a few "big name" prospects that didn't make the cut, and I'm sure I'll get plenty of e-mail from angry fans wondering how I could leave off their favorite prospect. This week, I'm going to explain my rationale for a few of the guys who just didn't quite make it, but I'm more than happy to answer any questions you guys have about the list.

Obviously, you can't make everyone happy, and just because someone doesn't appear in the Top 100 doesn't mean they aren't a good prospect. That said, I welcome all comments and questions, and I actually respond to my email.

Probably the biggest name that I left off is Xavier Nady, who I discussed in the left field column a few weeks ago. The Padres drafted him in 2000 as a third baseman out of the University of California. However, a shoulder injury limited him to first base last year, and he spent the season in the high-A California League. Nady posted quality numbers, hitting .302 with 26 home runs.

However, he was 22, a bit older than a player at high-A should be. I'd have liked to see Nady challenged at AA. The Padres had talked about moving him to second base, but his shoulder remains a problem and he's likely to have to DH for much of the 2002 season. San Diego now views his major league position as left field, which is a loaded position in the majors.

I'm not sure Nady will hit enough to be more than an average major-league left fielder, and the shoulder could give him problems. Its unclear where he'll play in 2003 due to his need to DH, but he won't see San Diego until 2003 at the earliest, when he'll be 24 years old. Nady probably will make the big leagues, but I'm not sold that he'll have much of an impact there.

I'm sure Cincinnati fans will notice the omission of Wily Mo Pena, who is the poster child for players who are far too highly rated. Pena gets scouts excited with his mix of power/speed but has very few translatable baseball skills right now.

Generally, I'd be more optimistic about a player coming off a year where he hit 26 home runs as a 19-year-old, but Pena comes with all kinds of caveats. His strike zone judgment is horrid, and he literally swings at everything. I couldn't help but chuckle at the Futures Game when he was swinging through batting practice pitches. Of course, he mixed those whiffs with 450 foot upper deck home runs, which definitely reminds you why people think he could be a major-league player.

The biggest challenge Pena will face, however, is his contract. He signed a major-league contract with the Yankees when he was 16, and that deal expires after this season. This will essentially be his last season of minor-league baseball, because starting next spring he has to make the opening day roster or be exposed to waivers before being sent back to the minor leagues.

With his tools, it's highly unlikely that any team would let Pena clear waivers, so he's got to make tremendous strides in 2002. I'm not optimistic he can go from a mediocre hitter in low-A ball to a major-league hitter in one year's time.

There were a lot of pitchers who just nearly missed the list, headlined by guys like Brad Lidge, Anthony Pluta, Ricardo Rodriguez, Chris Bootcheck, Brad Thomas, Clint Nageotte, Jim Journell, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Drese, and Denny Bautista. There are a lot of young pitchers who succeed in A-ball but fail to pan out when they reach the higher levels. If I have to choose between similar pitchers, I'll generally go with the more experienced player. A lot of these kids just need another year of work in the minors and will have no problems making the top 100 next year.

Next week, I'll look at the breakdown of the list by position and by organization, and discuss the strengths/weaknesses of this year's crop of prospects in relation to most seasons.

David Cameron is a man's man. Well, we don't mean that like that, er, not that there's anything wrong with that. Help him unravel any confusion you may be feeling with an e-mail to dac@strikethree.com.

Custom Search