Off-Season Capsule: NL Central

Jason Michael Barker

Well, friends, we've finally arrived at the final of baseball's six divisions, at least in the order in which I chose to cover them. The National League Central is an interesting division, in that you've got three clubs with realistic shots at first place -- Houston, St. Louis and Chicago -- and three more with no reasonable shot at all, each team having lost at least 94 games a year ago.

Houston Astros
2001 Record: 93-69
Post-season: Lost to Atlanta, 3-0

Say Hello: OF Brian Hunter, RHP T.J. Matthews, LHP C.J. Nitkowski, C Greg Zaun
Say Goodbye: OF Moises Alou, RHP Pedro Astacio, 3B Vinny Castilla, RHP Mike Jackson, RHP Mike Williams

The Scoop: The Astros let a pair of hitters -- Moises Alou and Vinny Castilla -- leave via free agency this winter, even though each were important cogs during the season. Call it addition by subtraction. The aging and injury plagued Alou will be replaced by Daryle Ward, who owns a career slugging percentage of nearly .500 despite extremely spotting playing time. They also have Jason Lane, who hit .316/.407/.608 with 38 homers at AA last season, available for outfield duty if Ward falters (or the two could serve as a platoon).

The hot corner will be manned by Morgan Ensberg (more on him later), a virtual lock to out-hit Castilla next season. The Astros were second in the league in runs scored a year ago, and even without Alou they've got a good chance to repeat that performance.

Houston had a very young starting rotation by the end of last season, with Wade Miller (25), Roy Oswalt (24) and Carlos Hernandez (21) getting key starts. The good news is that all three pitched well -- Miller started 32 games with a 3.40 ERA in his first full season, Oswalt joined the rotation in June and went 12-2 with a 2.82 ERA after dominating in the minors, Hernandez allowed just two earned runs in his first 17.2 innings before suffering an injury -- and the Astros should be set for years to come.

The biggest move they made this winter was not acquiring a veteran starter, showing that they're committed to a youth movement that should serve them very well.

Prospect to Watch: 3B Morgan Ensberg. After a very strong AA campaign in 2000, Ensberg showed even more power at AAA last season and set himself up to be Houston's starting third baseman next year. Despite missing several weeks with a broken hamate bone -- the injury is notorious for sapping a hitter's power -- he hit .310/.397/.592 in 316 at-bats with 45 walks in 23 homers. At 26 he's too old to be a star, but he should be a very solid contributor thanks to his bat.

St. Louis Cardinals
2001 Record: 93-69
Post-season: Lost to Arizona, 3-2

Say Hello: C Mike DiFelice, RHP Jason Isringhausen, OF Al Martin,1B Tino Martinez
Say Goodbye: RHP Alan Benes, RHP Dustin Hermanson, RHP Mike James, RHP T.J. Matthews, 1B Mark McGwire, INF Craig Paquette

The Scoop: I have mixed feelings about Tino Martinez. On the one hand, he hits homers, is solid with the glove and hardly ever misses a game. On the other, his line the last three years amounts to about .270/.350/.460 just isn't the sort of production a great team should be getting from the position. (As an aside, the Braves would kill to have those numbers at first base.)

In the sense that Mark McGwire really didn't contribute much at all last season, I suppose Martinez is an upgrade. It's hard to call this a good signing, however, given Tino's age and recent production. The good news is that Cards retain what was a very productive heart of a batting order last season in J.D. Drew, Albert Pujols, and Jim Edmonds, and leadoff man Fernando Vina, while not spectacular, is solid.

Likewise, spending big money on a closer is the smartest thing in the world, but signing Jason Isringhausen wasn't a horrible move either. What the Cardinals may regret is not addressing their starting rotation, for while Matt Morris and Darryle Kile are solid at the top, Woody Williams appears to be living on borrowed time (unless you think the 7-1, 2.28 he put up after being traded was for real) and But Smith has only 84.2 innings of big league experience.

The fifth spot is up for grabs between Rick Ankiel, who pitched at A-ball last season, and Garrett Stephenson, who missed the entire year after Tommy John surgery. I'm still not sure why they traded Dustin Hermanson, but no matter.

Prospect to Watch: RHP Jim Journell. In a pretty weak farm system, Journell stands out as a guy who could help the Cardinals pretty quickly. Don't let the fact that he pitched at high-A last season scare you -- he was drafted out of college in 1999, but missed nearly two full seasons after Tommy John surgery. He pitched so well last season than he'll probably begin 2002 at AAA, and could be one of the first pitchers recalled if someone at the major league level falters.

Chicago Cubs
2001 Record: 88-74

Say Hello: OF Moises Alou, RHP Alan Benes, SS Alex Gonzalez, OF Darren Lewis, RHP Pat Mahomes, LHP Jesus Sanchez, INF Chris Stynes
Say Goodbye: 3B Ron Coomer, LHP Felix Heredia, OF Matt Stairs, OF Michael Tucker, RHP Todd Van Poppel, 2B Eric Young

The Scoop: For all the talk about the Cubs improving this winter, their off-season moves essentially boil down to adding Moises Alou and Alex Gonzalez. First the good: Alou is a heck of a hitter; Gonzalez has a good glove and some decent secondary skills (homer power, stolen bases and the willingness to take a walk on occasion).

Now the bad: Alou is aging and injury prone; Gonzalez is a brutal hitter, with a .245/.304/.386 career line and no hope of improvement in sight. So is the offense, seventh in the league in run scoring a year ago, sunk? Not necessarily. There's still Sammy Sosa, there's Bill Mueller's OBP at 3B, Alou, Corey Patterson's potential, Fred McGriff...

The rotation has a chance to be extremely solid, led by Kerry Wood one more year removed from surgery. John Leiber has turned into an innings-eating workhorse, and even Jason Bere appears to have resurrected his career in Chicago, where it began with the White Sox nine years ago.

Then there are the young guys: Juan Cruz and Carlos Zambrano. Cruz was recently revealed to be two years older than originally believed, but that still leaves him just 23 with 44.2 solid major league innings under his belt. Zambrano, still believed to be 20 as of this writing, pitched well at AAA last year before finishing the season in Chicago. He touches 98 mph, but may wind up in the pen if he doesn't fill out his arsenal of pitches. For now he's in the mix for the fifth starter spot.

Prospect to Watch: 2B Bobby Hill. The Cubs have a very deep farm system that ranks among the very best in the game, so it was hard to choose just one prospect for this slot. In the end I went with Hill over the likes of Mark Prior, Hee Seop Choi, Ben Christensen and Zambrano because of his baseball skills that can help the Cubs immediately.

As soon as the Cubbies tire of Delino DeSheilds -- and if they're smart, that will happen quickly -- Hill will be ready to hit at the top of the order. He hit .301/.396/.392 at AA last year with a very good walk rate, then followed that up with a strong AFL campaign. A good comparison might be Chuck Knoblauch if everything goes right for Hill.

Milwaukee Brewers
2001 Record: 68-94

Say Hello: OF Izzy Alcantara, OF Midre Cummings, INF Lenny Harris, OF Alex Ochoa, LHP Glendon Rusch, OF Matt Stairs, 2B Eric Young
Say Goodbye: OF Jeromy Burnitz, IF Lou Collier, RHP Jeff D'Amico, RHP Jimmy Haynes, RHP Mark Leiter, OF Mark Sweeney, OF Devon White

The Scoop: Obsessed with strikeouts to the point of hurting their offense to get rid of them, the Brewers traded Jeromy Burnitz, their best hitter in recent memory, to the Mets for Glendon Rusch. I have to admit a slight bias towards Burnitz, because he has always reminded me of a left-handed version of my favorite player, Jay Buhner: low batting average, lots of walks, lots of strikeouts, and good homerun power.

The more you look at this trade, however, the more it makes sense for Milwaukee. Burnitz has been on the decline each of the past two seasons and is scheduled to make a ton of money in the near future, while Rusch is an improving starting pitcher three years from free agency. The Brewers are going to have trouble scoring runs next season, but that stems less from the departure of Burnitz and more from an organization that doesn't place enough emphasis on hitters controlling the strikezone.

Milwaukee is set on building their club around a young, strong starting rotation, and it's hard to fault them for this approach, given their inability to develop young hitters to build around. Rusch helps immediately in that he should contribute 200 league average (or better) innings, taking some of the pressure off youngsters like Ben Sheets, Ruben Quevedo and Nick Neugebauer.

Sheets made 25 starts with a respectable 4.67 ERA and showed flashes of being a top-notch starter, and Quevedo struck out 60 batters in 56.2 innings while posting a 4.61 ERA in ten starts. Neugebauer, the crown jewel of the farm system, reached the majors in August after making huge strides with his control in the minors. They're not at the same level as the Astros, but it's fair to say the Brewers are moving in the right direction, at least as far as pitching goes.

Prospect to Watch: RHP Nick Neugebauer. Last year, Neugebauer made the transformation from "thrower" to "pitcher." He still won't be confused for having Greg Maddux-like control, but given that he walked over a batter an inning in 2000, the fact that he walked 61 in 130.2 minor league innings last season is no small feat.

His stuff -- 100 mph fastball, 90 mph slider -- is tremendous when he has control of it. If last year's improvement is for real and he stays healthy after off-season surgery, he could be dominating NL hitters by the All-Star break.

Cincinnati Reds
2001 Record: 66-96

Say Hello: LHP Brian Bohanon, OF Juan Encarnacion, RHP Jimmy Haynes, RHP Luis Pineda, RHP Jose Silva, RHP Gabe White
Say Goodbye: 2B Pokey Reese, LHP Dennis Reyes, OF Ruben Rivera, OF Dmitri Young

The Scoop: Quietly, the Reds made a few nice moves this winter. First, they shipped Dmitri Young off to Detroit for young hurler Luis Pineda, who can hit 98 mph and pitched well at AA last year. Young is a nice player, but he has defensive shortcomings (and offensive ones, for that matter) and the Reds didn't really have a place for him next season. Next, whenever you rid your team of Pokey "untouchable" Reese, it has to be viewed as a step in the right direction.

Offensively, the Reds have some potential for 2002, mostly in the form of outfielders Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns. Dunn breezed through AA and AAA last year on his way to hitting 19 homers in 244 rookie at-bats, and Kearns is poised to join him in the outfield later this year. The infield of Sean Casey, Todd Walker, Barry Larkin and Aaron Boone is solid, if unspectacular. What the offense needs are healthy seasons from Larkin and Ken Griffey Jr., plus a full year of Dunn.

The Reds went with a young rotation in 2001, and the likes of Jose Acevedo, Lance Davis and Chris Reitsma predictably struggled. It remains to be seen if that experience will help them this year, though at first glance none of the three look to be more than #3 starters. Elmer Dessens was probably the best starting pitcher you didn't hear anything about last year, but when he's your number one starter you've got problems.

Unfortunately there isn't much help on the way, so they'll have to sink or swim with Acevedo, Davis and Reitsma. On a positive note, the bullpen could be very good if Scott Williamson comes back healthy, Gabe White bounces back from Coors Field, and Scott Sullivan and Danny Graves keep doing what they've done each of the last three years.

Prospect to Watch: OF Austin Kearns. Dunn vs. Kearns was the great debate a year ago, though that looks pretty silly at this point. While Dunn crushed minor and major league pitching last season, Kearns struggled at AA, hitting just .268/.364/.429 after a .306/.415/.588 campaign the year before.

It turns out he was recovering from a torn thumb ligament, which hindered his hitting quite a bit. Kearns bounced back with a strong second half of the season, then peppered the ball (.371/.460/.578) in the AFL. He'll start the year at AAA but could find himself in right field rather quickly.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2001 Record: 62-100

Say Hello: RHP Josh Fogg, RHP Sean Lowe, RHP Pat Rapp, 2B Pokey Reese, RHP Kip Wells, RHP Mike Williams
Say Goodbye: OF Gary Matthews Jr., RHP Todd Ritchie, RHP Jose Silva

The Scoop: Just as it's a good sign when you rid your organization of Pokey Reese, it's likewise a bad sign when you sign him to a contract. Reese has value as a defender and basestealer, but the chances of him hitting well enough to merit a starting job are extremely slim at this point. Even in his very best year (1999), he managed just a .330 on-base percentage.

Is there any hope for an offense that was next-to-last in run scoring a year ago? Well, Aramis Ramirez is just 23 and coming off an All-Star caliber year. Brian Giles is still very good, if underrated, and Jason Kendall seems likely to bounce back from a horrible year at the plate in 2001. Otherwise, it looks like more of the same -- Reese, Derek Bell, Kevin Young...

The Pirates did make one very nice move this winter, turning journeyman starter Todd Ritchie into three arms the White Sox had to spare: Kip Wells (age 24), Josh Fogg (25) and Sean Lowe (3). All three are candidates for the starting rotation and have good track records of success in the majors and/or minors.

With both their starters and relievers finishing 14th in the National League in ERA a year ago, it would be difficult for them not to improve, though anything is possible with the Pirates. In all seriousness, like the Brewers, the Pirates seem to be moving in the right direction on the mound, however slowly. The organizational hitting philosophy is another story entirely, but hey, you can't improve everything all at once.

Prospect to Watch: C Humberto Cota. Cota isn't the best prospect in the system -- he isn't even the best catching prospect in the system, and he's blocked at the major league level to boot -- but he is the most likely to stick with the club and see meaningful action during the year.

Cota isn't a great hitter or a great defensive catcher, but he does have some skills that make him useful, including bat speed, raw power, and good footwork. He could stand to be more patient at the plate, and he doesn't throw out runners well, but there are worse guys to have as your backup catcher. With Kendall and assorted prospects in his way, his best shot is probably with another organization.

Wrap It Up
Whew. Still with me? Good. First things first -- I don't see any changes in the standings this year in terms of the top three and bottom three. Movement within? Yes, perhaps, but it's difficult to imagine either the Reds, Cubs or Pirates sneaking up into the top three, or the Cubs slipping so far that they'd drop into the bottom three.

At the top, despite their lack of activity, the Astros still have a better collection of hitters and pitchers than the Cardinals do; score one more for Houston's farm system. The Cubs are going to be very good in a few years, but their best young players are still in the minors.

The Prediction: Houston, St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh.

about the author

What goes up, must come down. Jason Michael Barker, spinning 'round. If you're not dizzy after all that, drop him a line at jmb@strikethree.com.