Baseballhead:
West Wrasslin'

Michael Cox

Hey hey, we're Baseballhead, welcoming you to another installment of mirth and fun, and you just might learn something before we're done. And this week we're admiring the silver lining to all this dot-com failure stuff, wherein all those liberal-arts majors who worked in all those startups' customer-service departments are now making films, plays and books about what went wrong.

Before we get to the NL West predictions, let's wrap up the past week in MLB:

Selig loses. Hey, looking forward to some big crowds in Montreal and Minnesota this season...

Astros beg to be allowed out of their Enron naming deal. Let's see if I have this right: An industry who has just testified to Congress that their ownership is bungling its way into huge losses and potential bankruptcy thinks Enron is making them look bad?

Dodgers sign Ishii just before their deadline. "So, Mr. Ishii, you think we're lowballing you, do you? Tell us, is your first name 'Ichiro'? No? Well then, perhaps you should reconsider our generous offer."

Sosa leaves a bag of money sitting out in a public place; the money disappears. Duh. Of course, the wire services chose to call the crime "robbery," instead of theft, because they never had to perform the local courthouse beat that actual journalists normally pay their dues with.

Dominican fans jostle visiting players, including Vlad Guerrero. Well, I'd probably be pissed too if my own country's president interrupted an important game for a speech about himself. Good thing they didn't have plastic beer bottles handy.

And last but not least:

Spring Training to begin this week. I don't think there has ever been a previous offseason when I wished Spring Training would start so people would stop talking about baseball. Such was the Bud Selig Traveling Contraction and Eel Kidney Medicinal Tonic Sideshow that the winter became one big drag on anyone who called themselves a fan of the sport.

But now we can begin remembering why we love the game. The sights, the sounds, the smells of baseball are returning, and while we watch young perma-AAA players fill out B-game rosters and we line up for autographs from backup catchers, it all comes back, and for the time being Bud Selig becomes nothing more than a tattoo of an ex-lover's name that we cover up with a long-sleeved t-shirt. Mark my words, this is the year I try and get it lasered off.

On to the predictions...

Last season the entire country (okay, well, all but a bit of the Northeast) cheered as Luis Gonzalez blooped a bat-handle-special over Derek Jeter's head and ended the Yankees' recent championship run. What few remembered, however was the fact that the Diamondbacks made it to the postseason by the skin of their teeth (or more precisely, dentures).

That the Giants managed to finish just two games out is a testament to Barry Bonds' huge season as well as Dusty Baker's continuing ability to perform McGyver-like magic with the detritus that is the Giant pitching staff. The Dodgers didn't finish all that far out themselves, which actually says more about the overall quality of the division than about the Dodgers themselves. Meanwhile, the Padres were busy working on their long-term plan, and the Rockies were...well, I'm not sure what they thought they were doing.

The past offseason has been very quiet on the Western front, and it's likely we'll see last year's surprises even out into something statheads call "regression to the mean." However, it's more likely that this division is pretty darn close to the mean already, and that's even without Gary Sheffield.

As per usual, bottoms up, my friend. No, you can't read in that position. Sit back down. I mean I'm listing the teams in ascending order. You're welcome.

5. Colorado Rockies.

There may not be a bigger gap between fourth and fifth place in any other division this year -- last season Mike Hampton fell victim to the Coors Field Curse, and once again the team led the NL in hitting but pulled up last in pitching. Someday, somehow, someone's going to figure out a way to counteract the high-altitude issue (my solution: an all-Randy Johnson rotation), but it probably won't be 2002.

Meanwhile, as is by now the Colorado custom, the team let go of a bunch of fair-to-middling hitters and bullpen talent, then acquired some other fair-to-middling hitters and bullpen talent. The biggest move was the mild third-base upgrade of Todd Zeile, and that speaks volumes.

For the most part the team could have saved effort by convincing a few of last year's players to change their names. However, if the team doesn't trade prospect Jack Cust, in the Denver air he could become the first rookie to break the single-season home run record, while performing fielding antics that make Glenallen Hill look like Willie Mays.

Now, that's entertainment.

4. San Diego Padres.

From this point on, I'm going to freely admit that any one of these teams could well win the division, with the right timely gust of wind up their sails. However, I will say that I'm more skeptical about the Pads' chances than are many of my colleagues. the reason? I call it Michael's Rule of Youth: A young club virtually always suffers a major team slump at some point in the season. That slump is usually a season-killer, with my memory producing only last year's Oakland A's as an example of a team who overcame their season-opening crawl.

The Monks (as I like to call 'em) have a plan, and one that was hatched almost immediately after they were hammered in the '98 World Series. This year should see more youngsters making the team, including 3B Sean Burroughs, who's good enough to move Phil Nevin elsewhere on the diamond. Also, the Pads might finally cause Yankee fans to flash back to the Jay Buhner trade if 2B D'Angelo Jimenez continues his ascension.

On a more pessimistic note, the team did seem a bit anxious to rid themselves of Ben Davis after he didn't produce as advertised in his rookie year, and that makes me unsure of management's willingness to stay the course. If they do, 2003 might just be their year. Not this one, though.

3. San Francisco Giants.

Buoyed by their second-place 2001 finish, the Giants decided to stand pat this offseason. Mind you, "standing pat" also meant re-signing Barry Bonds, who actually became the big loser when Jason Giambi decided Steinbrenner's not such a bad guy after all.

But getting Bonds at a discount didn't seem to mean the team would use the extra millions to plug their glaring holes, unfortunately. Trading for David Bell actually adds a hole at third (didn't Brian Sabean learn his lesson with Russ Davis?) John Vander Wal, who was a pleasant surprise in only his second full-time season, leaves town and Reggie Sanders arrives -- but will Sanders be the 2002 .886 OPS model, or the 2001 .705 lemon?

And with a respectable, middle-of-the-table 4.19 team ERA last year, they again enter a season with a rotation who very closely resemble a box of chocolates. Adding Jay Witasick to the pen isn't going to help anything, either. But -- and this is a big but -- if youngsters Russ Ortiz and Jason Schmidt stabilize and settle into the talent they've shown, Dusty Baker might finally have that solid rotation he's asked Santa for every Christmas for the past decade.

My bold prediction for 2002: look for Giant fans to boo the Dodgers.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers.

The two biggest moves of the offseason for any NL West team were made by the Dodgers: First, malcontent and damn good hitter Gary Sheffield went to Atlanta for damn average hitter Brian Jordan. Then, last week Japanese P Kazuhisa Ishii agreed to a four-year deal the team hopes won't go south on them like Hideo Nomo.

Oh yeah, Nomo's back, too.

Losing Sheffield may harm the Dodgers more than it helps Atlanta, because the Dodgers don't have much hitting to work with in the first place. The go-to guy in the lineup now becomes Paul LoDuca, who last year made fans forget the team once had another incredible catcher -- at least until the fans see another of those long-distance calling ads. On the other hand, they may forget entirely, instead thinking Carrot Top was once NL Rookie of the Year.

The major positive in LA this year is that Kevin Brown will be healthy, at least to begin with. FOX executives are rubbing their lucky rabbit's feet as we speak, knowing that if the team finishes out of a pennant race one more time, Rupert Murdoch might just decide to replace them with the little kid from "Malcolm in the Middle." Rumors already abound that to boost sagging attendance the Dodger Stadium video screen will feature a new series, "Temptation Bleachers."

If Brown stays out of the emergency ward, Nomo can reverse his eroding stats, and Ishii performs as advertised, the Dodgers will have the second-best rotation in their division. If Brown gets hurt, Nomo slips back into his bad habits, or Ishii has trouble adjusting to MLB hitters, Murdoch might start trying to put the season on "hiatus."

1. Arizona Diamondbacks.

Why? Because they have Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, and nobody else has proven they can beat that.

Buck Showalter has to be developing a complex. He's fired by the Yankees, and the team wins the Series the very next year. Then he's axed by Arizona, and it's championship ring time. All over MLB teams now want to hire Showalter, but only for one season.

To be fair, there had to be a convergence of elements to even get the D-Backs to the 2001 postseason: the best one-two pitching duo in baseball, an incredible season by Luis Gonzalez, a veritable renaissance season by Mark Grace (the veteran star owner Jerry Colangelo said he could no longer afford to sign), and an amazing year from Reggie Sanders.

Weaknesses were glaring: beyond Johnson and Schilling, there was no pitching. Jay Bell continued his offensive slide, Matt Williams seemed to have found the bottom of his, and Steve Finley regressed to his bad old self. This was a team who would have had trouble winning any other division. Heck, they had trouble winning the one they're in.

And this season it's only going to get worse. I'm very comfortable stating that there's no chance Gonzalez will repeat his 2001 numbers. Grace is unlikely to stay healthy for a full season again. Bell, Williams and Finley were old when they joined the D-Backs. And how much can you ask of Johnson and Schilling? Or more precisely, how much can Bob Brenly ask of Johnson and Schilling? Unfortunately, we might just find out.

On the other hand, if Grace goes down, Erubiel Durazo will play every day. Rick Helling is just the middling innings-eater the team needs to protect the pen from overwork. The bullpen is good enough that Brenly should try letting them pitch an inning or two at the end of Johnson and Schilling's starts. And if the team was smart, they hired a very good shrink for Byung-Hyun Kim at the end of the Series.

In any other division, the Diamondbacks could not afford to stand pat with their 2001 roster. In the NL West, I think it might be a rule. In any case, until the Padres' youngsters develop enough big-league experience to stave off the major swoon, I'll go with the old guys.

about the author

Michael Cox is surprisingly still under the average age of the Diamondbacks roster. Explain that doesn't allow him to pretend he thinks Slipknot are "rad" at mc@strikethree.com.