Dave Paisley

No, this isn’t an article about the Simpsons episode where Mr. Burns hires a bunch of pro baseball players so he can win the Springfield softball tournament. (Although if interested, you can check out that episode at Homer at the Bat) Not his is about the exploits of our current day home run heroes. When we started up strikethree.com, Alex Rodriguez was just getting started, Ken Griffey Jr. looked like he was going to break Aaron’s home run record in a walk. Mark McGwire, after a couple of ugly years in the early nineties, was making a late-blooming run at Aaron himself, and Barry Bonds late thirties power surge looked about as unlikely as Bud Selig ever winning a court battle.

Let me take you back a couple of years and take a look at how our current bevy of sluggers stacked up against the historic heavyweights:

At age 29, Griffey was comfortably ahead of Jimmie Foxx’s historic pace and looked like a mortal lock to hit 500 in his age 31 year. Given Foxx’s precipitous slide after he hit that mark, that would have put Griffey over two years of Aarons’ pace. Note also that Alex Rodriguez, at the tender age of 23, was ahead of all-comers. At age 34, Barry Bonds was having a nice little career hitting enough home runs to be on the leader board, but looking like he’d end his career in the mid-500s.

As for McGwire, just another couple of years of 60+ home runs would take him into the mid-600s, within easy striking distance of Babe Ruth, and maybe even with a shot at Aaron. The signs were ominous for Frank Thomas. The flattening out of his home run profile as he hit 30 didn’t bode well for his future as an elite slugger.

So how have things turned out? Here’s the chart updated through the end of last season:

The first story is the amazing reversal of fortunes of Bonds and McGwire. Fragility finally caught up with Mac again, and we all know what Bonds did last year. Two more years like that for Barry and he’s in Ruth territory. Add third and he’s past Aaron. While none of that should be taken for granted, it’s perfectly plausible that he can manage those kind of numbers over five seasons rather than three. On the other hand, he could be the next Mark McGwire and be retired by 2004. On the whole, though, Barry has been remarkably healthy, so there’s less reason to expect that from him. His last name isn’t Larkin, after all. Mark McGwire’s story is a just a little sad. He’s had a very nice career, but his 70 homers in 1998 promised a little more than we actually got and it’s a little disappointing to see him leave on a down note.

The second major story is the decline of two of the big sluggers of the nineties. Frank Thomas had never been a home run giant, and it’s maybe no surprise that personal setbacks and injuries have taken the steam out of a once sure-fire Hall of fame career. While he was no threat to Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr. certainly was. However, the graph shows that two injury-plagued years in Cincinnati on a team going nowhere have very quickly derailed Griffey’s promise. Griffey has been all but invisible in Cincinnati, apart from some tantrums about not getting on Sportscenter highlight reels. It’s certainly possible that he could bounce back — after all he’s still pretty young, but Griffey has never been renowned as a hard worker and the hamstring injury that has slowed him down has been nagging for around five years. A collapsing career may turn around his work ethic, but it seems unlikely to me.

The final and most upbeat story is that of young Alex Rodriguez. He showed significant promise right from the start and is now well ahead of everyone in history. He’s about a year ahead of Griffey’s pace and about half a season ahead of Jimmy Foxx. Five more seasons of 50 homers will put him at 500 at age 30, or about 70 ahead of his nearest competition. Of all the possibilities mentioned above, I’d say that was easily the most feasible.

So this next season, provided Bud Selig doesn’t screw it up for us, is one with a few fascinating questions. Will Barry Bonds continue his aerial attack on Ruth and Aaron? Will Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey be able to stay healthy and get their careers back on track? And can Alex Rodriguez continue to distance himself from the rest of history by passing 300 homers at age 26?

Pining for the fjords? Desperate for hardball? Well, so is Dave Paisley. But he's not worried because he's got spring training tickets. Do you? If not why not razz him at drdjp@strikethree.com?

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