Off-Season Capsule: NL East

Jason Michael Barker

Let's cut the small talk and get straight to the capsules, shall we?

Atlanta Braves
2001 Record: 88-74
Post-season: Beat Astros 3-0, Lost to Diamondbacks 4-1

Say Hello: 3B Vinny Castilla, RHP Albie Lopez, OF Gary Sheffield
Say Goodbye: RHP John Burkett, OF Brian Jordan, RHP Steve Karsay, LHP Odalis Perez

The Scoop: No, moving Chipper Jones to the outfield to make room for Vinny Castilla doesn't make much sense in the grand scheme of things. It does, however, give the Braves a darned good outfield, with Chipper, Andruw Jones and the newly acquired Gary Sheffield. You know they're all going to hit, though it remains to be seen if Andruw will be able to cover all that outfield space by himself.

Scoring runs has been a problem for the Braves for a couple of years now, and there's no question they've upgraded their offense. They haven't figured out that you can find a decent hitting first basemen just about anywhere, but they should still score more runs than they did a year ago.

The top of the rotation is, as always, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Missing this year is John Smoltz, who is for the moment the closer. As such the Braves need a big comeback year from Kevin Millwood in the middle and something from Albie Lopez and Jason Marquis at the back end.

The bullpen has taken something of a hit with John Rocker, Steve Karsay, Steve Reed and Odalis Perez having moved on, but Bobby Cox always seems to do a good job patching together guys like Jose Cabrera (the hard thrower), Mike Remlinger (the veteran) and Tim Spooneybarger (the rookie).

Prospect to Watch: SS Wilson Betemit. Atlanta's best prospects are younger players in the low minors, while Betemit reached AA last year. Of course, he's quite young too, having just turned 20 in November. He is also the biggest impact player in the system, combining batting average, power, speed and a good glove.

With Rafael Furcal at short Betemit could wind up at either third or second, though Vinny Castilla stands in his way at third for the time being. He's probably slated to begin the year at AAA, but he's also one injury away (Castilla, Furcal or 2B Marcus Giles) from the majors.

Philadelphia Phillies
2001 Record: 86-76

Say Hello: RHP Terry Adams, OF Ricky Ledee
Say Goodbye: RHP Chris Brock, LHP Dennis Cook, LHP Omar Daal, OF Brian Hunter

The Scoop: The Phills didn't do much this winter, though they insist they were in the running for a number of high-profile free agents including Jason Schmidt. Not signing anyone isn't the worst thing they could have done, however, particularly on offense. Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu are star hitters, and Jimmy Rollins is coming off a solid rookie year for a shortstop and Pat Burrell is young and improving as well.

Catcher Mike Lieberthal was coming off two very good offensive seasons before missing most of last year with an injury. There are holes, to be certain -- CF Doug Glanville, 2B Marlon Anderson unless he proves last season wasn't a fluke -- but there's also help on the way (more on that later).

The Phillies were sixth in the NL in runs allowed last season, thanks to starters Randy Wolf, Robert Person and rookie Brandon Duckworth. All three are back next season, as well as free agent signee Terry Adams. Adams is something of a risk -- last season was his first as a starter, so it remains to be seen how his arm bounces back from the increased workload. On the other hand, he did pitch pretty well and allowed just nine homers in 166.1 innings.

So... anybody else expecting Jose Mesa to save 42 games and post a sub-3.00 ERA again next season? Watch for Doug Nickle, who posted a 1.68 ERA at AAA last season and allowed just 62 hits in 85.2 innings.

Prospect to Watch: OF Marlon Byrd. As soon as the Phillies tire of Doug Glaville's sub-.300 OBP in center, Byrd will be waiting to take the job. He might even get a shot at a roster spot in spring training, depending on how quickly Bobby Abreu recovers from this week's appendectomy.

In any event, Byrd nearly went 30-30 at AA last season, finishing with 28 homers and 32 steals (in 37 attempts), and hit .316/.386/.555 for the year, very respectable numbers for a center fielder. He is a very complete player as far as skills go, and should be just fine in center when his time comes.

New York Mets
2001 Record: 82-80

Say Hello: 2B Roberto Alomar, RHP Pedro Astacio, LHP Mike Bascik, OF Jeromy Burnitz, OF Roger Cedeno, LHP Shawn Estes, LHP Mark Guthrie, OF Gary Matthews Jr., 1B Mo Vaughn, RHP David Weathers
Say Goodbye: OF Benny Agbayani, RHP Kevin Appier, OF Alex Escobar, INF Lenny Harris, OF Matt Lawton, INF Desi Relaford, RHP Jerrod Riggan, LHP Glendon Rusch, OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo, 3B Robin Ventura, RHP Rick White, 1B/3B Todd Zeile

The Scoop: The Mets are, by far, the most changed team this off-season. Their infield has gone from Todd Zeile, Edgardo Alfonzo, Rey Ordonez and Robin Ventura to Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, Ordonez and Alfonzo, all with Mike Piazza behind the plate. They also ditched outfielders Matt Lawton, Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Benny Agbayani in favor of Roger Cedeno, Jeromy Burnitz and Gary Matthews Jr.

Will all these changes make a difference? In a word, yes. The Mets are potentially better at five positions -- first, second, third and both corner outfield spots -- than they were last season, when they scored just 642 runs (dead last in the National League).

Pitching might be another story. Gone are Kevin Appier and Glendon Rusch, in the trades which landed the club Vaughn and Burnitz. The Mets are hoping Al Leiter still has something left in the tank, that Shawn Estes and Bruce Chen can find some sort of consistency after up and down careers, and that Pedro Astacio and Jeff D'Amico are healthy.

That's quite a bit to be banking on, of course, but it's not all outside the realm of possibility. In any event, they'll be hoping for another pitching performance similar to last season, when they finished fifth in the NL in runs allowed.

Prospect to Watch: RHP Jae Weong Seo. Seo, a signee out of Korea, missed the entire 2000 season after Tommy John surgery, but came back last year at pitched well at three levels (high-A, AA and AAA). He has excellent control, having walked just 35 batters in 187.2 minor league innings, and already has good command of three off-speed pitches: splitter, change and curve. His ability to throw those pitches, coupled with the departures of Kevin Appier and Glendon Rusch this winter, leave him with an outside shot at the starting rotation this spring.

Florida Marlins
2001 Record: 76-86

Say Hello: Nothing of note
Say Goodbye: OF Jeff Abbott, RHP Juan Acevedo, INF Dave Berg, RHP Ricky Bones. LHP Jesus Sanchez

The Scoop: After years of struggling offensively -- and to be honest, part of that is due to their home park -- the Marlins set a club record by hitting 166 homers and scoring 742 runs (nearly 4.6 runs per game). Essentially nothing has changed this winter as far as hitters go, so should the Fish expect more of the same?

Perhaps, though it's unlikely Cliff Floyd will hit .317/.390/.578 again after doing so at age 28; ditto Kevin Millar's .314/.374/.557 at age 30. On the other hand, 2B Luis Castillo slumped last year after two strong seasons, so he can be expected to bounce back a bit. 1B Derrek Lee had a strong second half and is young enough to have a breakout season, and CF Preston Wilson could go Mike Cameron on us if he drew a few more walks.

On the mound, the Marlins have assembled quite a collection of young fireballers: AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Ryan Dempster, Brad Penny and Josh Beckett. Throw in lefty Michael Tejara and righty Kevin Olsen and there's no shortage of potential starters, in the system -- it will be interesting to see who the five starters are in another two or three years.

Given their respective ages and performance to date, I'd go with Beckett, Burnett, Penny, Dempster and Tejera. In the meantime, the Marlins could surprise some people next season with all this good young pitching, and on the off chance that they're competing for a Wild Card spot, they've got the chips to go out and add another bat.

Prospect to Watch: RHP Josh Beckett. It's almost too easy to go with Beckett, but when a guy is this good you just have to mention him. Actually, I was a bit surprised to see that he had only started four games for the Marlins last season; somehow I thought he was up longer than that.

Anyway, Beckett posted a 1.23 ERA at high-A, a 1.82 ERA at AA, and a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings at the major league level last season, and his ratios were tremendous at every stop. If there's a concern here it's that he pitched 164 innings last season, so hopefully the Marlins will go easy on his arm this year if they learned anything at all from what happened with Kerry Wood.

Montreal Expos
2001 Record: 68-94

Say Hello: Bogus MLB ownership
Say Goodbye: RHP Mike Thurman

The Scoop: Who knows what's up with this franchise? At the moment it appears they're going to be owned by some sort of Major League Baseball partnership made up of the 29 owners, and it's expected that Jeffrey Loria is going to take his baseball people -- including manager Jeff Torborg and GM Larry Beinfest -- with him to Florida once he assumes control of the Marlins.

In a strange irony, the Expos will open the 2002 season (say it with me "Contraction is dead. Contraction is dead") against... you guessed it, the Florida Marlins. You can't make this sort of stuff up.

Talent? Oh, sure. I could go on about Tony Armas Jr., Carl Pavano and Javier Vazquez in the rotation and Jose Vidro, Fernando Tatis and Vladimir Gurerro in the batting order, but what's the point? Nobody is going to watch this club in 2002, and who knows if they'll even have a television or radio contract. Or a manager, general manager or a scouting department. Or fans.

All of that makes me sad, because I have baseball-loving relatives in Montreal who gave up on the Expos years ago because the powers that be have left the franchise to rot.

Prospect to Watch: OF Brad Wilkerson. I was close to listing SS Brandon Phillips in this spot, but Wilkerson spent last year in the majors and AAA and is going to win a job this spring, while Phillips split his time between high-A and AA and will probably be back in the minors to start the season.

Unlike the vast majority of Expos prospects, Wilkerson has an understanding of the strike zone. He walked 60 times in just 233 at-bats last season at AAA, so perhaps there's something to the theory that he got all the plate discipline in the system. Given regular playing time, he could become something of an Edgar Martinez-lite: solid average, lots of walks and tons of doubles.

Wrap it Up
We all know it comes down to the Braves and Mets, right? Sure we do. And if not for Sheffield landing in Atlanta, I would have been compelled to pick the Mets. As it stands now, however, the Braves have done just enough with their offense, while retaining their pitching, to stay ahead of the much-improved Mets. Might the best race in this division be for third place?

The Prediction: Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, Florida, Montreal.

about the author

For a brief minute there, Jason Michael Barker was actually favored to win the NL East, and then things got a bit crazy. Tell him he'd be right back in the race if only he'd sign Jose Canseco and Rickey Henderson at jmb@strikethree.com.