Baseballhead:
East Bread

Michael Cox

Bienvenue au Baseballhead, ladies and germs. Although we're not really big football fans here, we thought we'd pass along the most important news from yesterday's game: First, the game was won by a team that hasn't changed cities in the past ten years, which is always a good thing. Second, the highlight of the contest occurred when Sir Paul McCartney insulted Howie Long's hair. Unfortunately millions missed the insult, having perforated their own eardrums to avoid hearing one more note of Terry Bradshaw's attempt at "A Hard Day's Night."

Moving along to baseball, this week begins Baseballhead's 2001 predictions, but first let's check in on the week that was, in point form:

• The latest lawsuit against the Padres' ballpark ends in the plaintiffs walking out of court. With all the intelligent people who have spoken out against public funding of major-league fields, how come only the whackos actually attempt opposition? (To answer myself, I think the intelligent folks are too busy making money off their exposés of the teams' greed. Kinda ironic, huh?)
   
• Giants hire Tim McCarver as their TV analyst. There is a positive in this -- mercifully, the team didn't put McCarver on the radio with Jon Miller. The entire Bay Area is at this very moment making sure their home stereos get good AM reception...
   
• Pirates sign Pokey Reese. And you thought Pittsburgh's problem was their old GM...
   
• Ownership committee approve Marlins sale. Yes, MLB is approving a sale that isn't even negotiated yet. Note to owners: if Selig brings out a big bowl of pudding, don't eat it. Trust me here.
   
• Selig now says contraction can occur right up to Opening Day. Well, if it can happen then, why not June? or September? I think someone is very, very close to needing a white jacket...

I feel better now. On to the predictions:

Last year at this time the American League East looked to be much more competitive than it was in 2000, when the Yankees won the title by the relative skin of their teeth. However, it wasn't to be. The Red Sox were ravaged by injuries and began squabbling amongst themselves...okay, so most of them were squabbling with Carl Everett.

The Blue Jays never quite reached their potential, playing well enough to stay far ahead of the oafish and shiftless Orioles and Devil Rays, but barely made .500. And those O's and Rays? (Sharp intake of breath, followed by a furrowing of brow and shaking of head)

This spring begins with the opposite feeling, as most pundits and punters have virtually crowned the Yanks, while the other four teams seemed to believe the hype and not really bother this offseason. Do we even have to bother with predictions here?

Let me remind you, my friend, that this is baseball. Let's get started...

5. Baltimore Orioles.

Yes, it's going to get worse before it gets any better in Balto, because after their abysmal 2001 campaign (motto: "Squeezing that last buck out of Cal") they did little to improve the team. The primary problem seems to be that free agents are avoiding the Birds like ebola, and the new O's merchandise bears the slogan, "Syd Thrift went free-agent shopping and all we got was Marty Cordova."

In fact, the team's biggest improvement comes from saying goodbye to Ripken and Brady Anderson. Hmm...one free agent, two veterans leave...could that possibly mean the O's are going to play some of their young talent? Not if Peter Angelos can help it, and as his precious Camden Yards crowds dwindle, expect panic trades. Trades for two and three prospects. Trades for cash. Trades for Boog's BBQ.

The first deals will likely be to secure replacements for 2B Jerry Hairston Jr. and "closer" Willis Roberts, neither of whom should be blamed for any of their failings, real or imagined. Hell, I'd even put on a uniform and collect a big-league paycheck if asked. It's management's job to make sure I never get that chance. With the state the O's are in, I'm tempted to fill out an application.

4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Not that the Rays shouldn't give the Orioles a run for their money. What does it say about Tampa Bay that the best thing they could have dome this offseason was to stay the hell out of the free-agent market?

But stay out they did, and although that means no aging former stars to watch, it does mean the Rays' management realizes no one was coming to see the aging former stars they had in the first place. It also means that you'll see a young, young team, and with young teams anything can happen. Half the Tampa lineup could succeed spectacularly or fall on its collective face.

Will 3B Aubrey Huff, P Nick Bierbrodt and/or C Toby Hall live up to the good words you've heard? Will fans come out when the only players they've even heard of are Greg Vaughn and Ben Grieve? I do know the answer to the latter, which has been proven to be "no."

3. Toronto Blue Jays.

If there's one thing I'm sure of in the AL East, it's that Toronto will finish third. A class above the cellar-dwellers, they unfortunately haven't the talent or management greed to reach up and give Boston or New York a good Dutch rub.

Instead, new GM J.P. Ricciardi has been as shrewd as he can be with limited funds. With the few moves he has made, he's taken a fundamentally good team and swapped out a few key parts. Potentially the best of these was the acquisition of Luke Prokopec from the Dodgers. Prokopec did very well for the Dodgers as a starter last year, before injury and banishment to the pen. In return, Paul Quantrill will do a better job staying off snowmobiles in L.A.

I don't see most of the Jays' moves paying off until 2003 at the soonest, but fortunately they sell that good Labatts beer at SkyDome. Source of amusement this year: young players thinking they're getting A-Rod-size paychecks before realizing it's Canadian dollars.

2. Boston Red Sox.

The Sox have made a few changes this offseason, but every single one comes with significant risk. Will they get the Johnny Damon of 2000, or the economy-class 2001 model? John Burkett and Dustin Hermanson will either help create a rotation that can weather a Pedro outage or two, or their arms will fall off.

The good news is that there are several returning players who could hardly do worse than they did last year. Nomar Garciaparra ought to be ready for a full Nomar-like season, Manny Ramirez should regain his MVP-level form, and the aforementioned Pedro says he's good to go. Also likely going, but in a different way, is GM Dan Duquette, who championed anal-retentive statheadedness to the point where he almost seemed to be using the Sox as an experiment to disprove the "clubhouse chemistry" cliché. I don't believe he's capable of waxing John Henry's limo well enough not to be kicked to the curb.

Already gone is Carl Everett, and you can bet things will be happier in Boston for it. Also counted in the "good news" column is the fact that Pokey Reese is in Pittsburgh. This is the second straight year of addition-by-subtraction for the Sox, and if it's successful this season, in a twisted way Duquette will have proven what a poor GM he's been.

1. New York Yankees.

This offseason we've been treated to a constant parade of talking heads telling us how this offseason proves the Yankees have too much money. It's unfair that they can sign Jason Giambi and steal David Wells right out from under the D-Backs' nose, while teams like the Royals have to subsist on thin gruel and sock juice.

Well, I'm here to tell you it's not necessarily all toast and firearms in the Bronx this year. Sure, they have Giambi, and that's a lot, but he's only one man. Robin Ventura is theory an upgrade over Scott Brosius, but last year, Ventura's OPS was 11 points lower than Brosius', and that was Ventura's second straight season of decline.

From there the improvements decline further. John Vander Wal's career OPS is 30 points lower than Paul O'Neill's, plus Vander Wal is 36 in April and has played exactly one full-time season in his career. Rondell White has played nine years in the majors -- but only three of those the equivalent of full-time. He gets hurt a lot, you see.

The rotation is aging, a fact that isn't helped by the David Wells signing. In fact, it's the addition of Wells that reveals the biggest chink in the Yankees' armor -- the return of Steinbrenner's meddling ways. The Yankee staff reportedly were as blindsided by the signing as Arizona was -- Brian Cashman surely knew that Wells was a prime candidate for severe decline, but Da Boss wanted to get back at the team that beat him. This may well be irony waiting to happen.

Add to that the unknown factor that is Alfonso Soriano's sophomore season, the unknown that is Nick Johnson's rookie season, and the likelihood that Roger Clemens has now put the best season of his "twilight years" behind him, and the skid potential is great. And if that happens, don't be surprised if a crazed Steinbrenner is found brandishing a spear, wearing a loincloth and smeared with pig's blood.

On the other hand, Ventura's OPS seems to be on a three-year cycle, and this is the third year. Clemens is likely to continue be very effective. Vander Wal hasn't shown signs of decline, and White seems to be very healthy now. And Wells...sorry, but I'm not gonna push my luck.

about the author

Michael Cox has braced for scathing e-mail from the Yankee hordes, many of whom will be too angry to realize that he has picked their team to win their division. Go ahead and call him a Met-lover anyway at mc@strikethree.com.