Prospect Report:
Tighty-Righties

David Cameron

You know it's a slow week in baseball when the anticipation over the James Baldwin and Pokey Reese signings lingers for several days. It must have been "Oh how the mighty have fallen week" and someone forgot to tell me.

However, on to the list of ten pitchers who all throw harder than James Baldwin:

Josh Beckett came out of high school in Texas drawing comparisons to Roger Clemens, like pretty much every other flamethrower from the Lone Star State. He's lived up to his billing so far, dominating every stretch of the way. He mixes his fastball and his lethal curve with great control and mixes in occasional changeups. Reportedly he throws a slider, though never while I've watched him pitch.

Beckett's got two knockout pitches, doesn't fall behind the hitter, and knows what he's doing on the mound. His only real drawback would be the twinge in his elbow that shut him down for part of 2000. As with any young pitcher, there's a big risk he could blow his arm out. If he doesn't, he'll be a rare find.

Mark Prior has yet to throw a professional pitch, yet there is talk that he could win a job in Spring Training if he impresses the Cubs' staff. It's not likely, and he'll probably go to AA where those hitters will learn what the Pac-10 learned last year: Prior is really good.

He's actually very similar to Beckett, though his changeup is much better, thanks to attending a Division 1 school. Sitting between 92-94, Prior doesn't wow you with his power, but he can certainly throw it by you. He hasn't had any problems yet, so he could be one of the lucky few to escape.

There was no escaping Nick Neugebauer in 2001. After a so-so year in 2000 where he walked everybody that he didn't strike out, Neugebauer was an enigma. No one could deny his 100 MPH fastball and 90 MPH slider were tremendous weapons, but he was using them like an eight-year-old in a Porsche.

Neugebauer learned how to not overthrow this year and the result was a much improved, though still sometimes worrisome, command of his fastball. He can legitimately just blow you away in a dominating, Randy Johnson-style way. The key for Nick will be to learn how to pitch and not just trust his stuff. With good teaching, the sky's the limit.

Unfortunately for Dennis Tankersley, he'll be forever linked with Ed Sprague, whom the Red Sox got in return when they gave Tank to the Padres in 2000. Tank blistered through A and AA ball, looking completely untouchable. A late-season promotion to AAA failed as Tank developed a sore shoulder, but in the end, it will probably be for the best. The Padres feel no urge to rush him, so he'll probably spend a half-year or so in AAA before helping San Diego with the pennant chase after the All-Star break.

Jerome Williams is the best of a good group of Giants hurlers. His raw numbers in AA aren't overwhelming until you realize he was 19 in the Texas League and missed the first few months recovering from the loss of his mother. He was much better in the second half, and his command of four pitches should serve him well in AAA this year. He needs more time to work on the art of pitching, but he's still very young and isn't that far from the majors. If the Giants can keep his right shoulder healthy, they'll be very happy with the results.

The Padres are represented well on this list, with Jake Peavy not that far behind Tank in the race to San Diego. Peavy is a bit undersized, which is what got him drafted in the 15th round, but he mixes one of the best sliders in the game in with his low 90s fastball and developing changeup. His stuff has been termed average before, but hitters disagree, with one California League opponent claiming he was the toughest pitcher he'd ever faced.

Peavy is extremely intelligent for someone his age and has the ability to move quickly. He should spend 2002 in the minors before challenging for a spot at the front of the Padres' rotation in 2003.

The Cubs also add their second pitcher to the list with Juan Cruz. He made headlines last week by finally admitting he was 23, and not 21 as he had been claiming. Of course, this comes as a surprise to no one, really, as Ruben Rivera has claimed he faced Cruz back in the early 90's. He could be 33 and still described as a prospect, however, because of his legitimately nasty stuff.

Cruz' fastball/slider combination is lethal, and while his changeup has potential, it's inconsistent. He struggles with his mechanics, which can lead to poor control at times, and his small, wiry frame may not support all the torque he's putting on his right arm. He'll probably have very few problems getting batters out when he's on the mound. The key for him will be staying there.

Rafael Soriano is a testament to patience and perseverance. A failed hitter, the Mariners converted him to a pitcher in 2000 and have watched him blossom ever since. He throws hard, hitting 96 at times, and his development of a slider is what led to his success in high-A this year. His changeup is a big work in progress and the key to whether he'll remain in the rotation or not.

The Mariners like his chances of being a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he's probably the farthest from the majors of all these guys. He'll begin 2002 in AA San Antonio and should probably spend the season there. Expect some rough patches, but Soriano has got the talent to succeed. He just needs time and a little more patience.

The Braves' pipeline of young arms doesn't stop, and probably the most talented pitcher in their system is Matt Belisle. He missed essentially all of 2001 with a back injury, but it's not supposed to be a problem in the future. He was unhittable in 2000 and showed the same control in his October return to baseball in the Arizona Fall League.

Belisle has a solid repertoire of the standard four pitches, but his ability to throw any of them for strikes is what sets him apart. I'm taking a risk putting him this high on the list, but I've got confidence that he'll move very quickly after showing his back is near 100%.

Like Belisle, Jon Rauch missed the 2001 season with an injury, though his was in his throwing arm. I saw Rauch pitch a few times early in the season and he didn't look good at all. Hopefully he can come back from the surgery at full strength, because there is a lot to like in his 6'11" frame. He throws strikes and has an unusually good curveball/change-up combination for a guy his size.

Rauch doesn't throw as hard as you'd expect, hitting 95 on occasion but living more in the 93 range. The White Sox should be cautious with him and let him get a full year of AAA under his belt. He could join a very potent rotation in Chicago in 2003.

about the author

David Cameron is sitting in the sun right now, sipping a piña colada and contemplating Wily Mo Peña. Tell him you believe it all except for the Wily Mo part at dac@strikethree.com.