Off-Season Capsule: NL West

Jason Michael Barker

Let's cut the small talk and get straight to the capsules, shall we?

Arizona Diamondbacks
2001 Record: 92-70
Post-season: Won World Series

Say Hello: OF Jose Guillen, RHP Rick Helling, LHP Mike Myers
Say Goodbye: RHP Robert Ellis, RHP Albie Lopez, OF Reggie Sanders

The Scoop: Having won the World Series, the D-Backs predictably didn't change much. That's particularly true on offense, where the only real difference is Reggie Sanders taking his act west to San Francisco.

Not addressing the offense could be a real mistake -- Arizona scored 818 runs last season, good for third in the NL, but they're counting quite a bit on aging veterans like Matt Williams, Mark Grace, Steve Finley, Tony Womack, Jay Bell and Craig Counsell, to say nothing of Luis Gonzalez, who certainly won't hit 57 homers again. And some of those guys weren't all that productive to begin with.

Adding Helling looks like a nice move for the rotation, as he's a good bet to pitch 200 solid innings behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Johnson and Schilling are great, of course, but Helling should give both of them and the bullpen some much-needed rest as the season wears on. Said bullpen has the potential to be pretty darned good, headlined by Matt Mantei, Byung-Hyun Kim, Bret Prinz and lefty-killing new addition Mike Myers.

Prospect to Watch: 1B Lyle Overbay. I didn't want to pick Overbay, because with Mark Grace and Erubiel Durazo at the major-league level he probably doesn't have a place to play in 2002. He is the best hitter left in the system after Jack Cust's departure, however, so here he is. A left-handed hitter, Overbay is in the John Olerud/Mark Grace mold, good for a high batting average (he hit .352 at AA last year), a ton of walks and some power.

San Francisco Giants
2001 Record: 90-72

Say Hello: 3B David Bell, OF Reggie Sanders, OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo, RHP Jay Witasick
Say Goodbye: RHP Brian Boehringer, LHP Shawn Estes, 1B Andres Galarraga, RHP Mark Gardner, RHP Wayne Gomes, OF Dante Powell, OF John Vander Wal

The Scoop: Not pictured above is the biggest move in club history since the Giants moved to San Francisco -- re-signing the great Barry Bonds. Throw in Reggie Sanders in right field and defensive specialist Tsuyoshi Shinjo, who didn't embarrass himself at the plate last year, in between and you're looking at a very solid outfield.

David Bell, acquired for a song because Seattle didn't need him, really doesn't hit enough for the position, but at the same time he's a solid bet to out-hit last year's model, Pedro Feliz, and his glove is pretty good to boot. He's also the sort of weak bat you can carry when your middle infielders are Jeff Kent and Rich Aurilia.

Also not pictured was the re-signing of Jason Schmidt, expected to anchor the starting rotation. That's a nice thought, assuming he's healthy and the improvement he showed in the second half is for real. If he is, and it was, there's hope for a rotation that also includes Russ Ortiz (who dramatically cut his walk and homer rates last year but needs to keep up those trends), Kirk Reuter, rookie Kurt Ainsworth and innings eater Livan Hernandez. There's a great deal of help on the way as well, in the form of prospects Boof Bonser and Jerome Williams.

Prospect to Watch: RHP Kurt Ainsworth. His time seems to have finally arrived, after a year in which many expected him to nail down a spot in the starting rotation. Ainsworth's numbers at AAA Fresno -- 10-9 record, 5.07 ERA -- don't look like much on the surface, but he struggled with a blister and his mechanics in the first half before finishing strong. His ratios were also good, including a 2.9 K:BB ratio and less hits than innings pitched.

Los Angeles Dodgers
2001 Record: 86-76

Say Hello: LHP Omar Daal, INF Cesar Izturis, OF Brian Jordan, RHP Hideo Nomo, LHP Odalis Perez, RHP Paul Quantrill, OF Dave Roberts
Say Goodbye: RHP Terry Adams, RHP James Baldwin, RHP Chan Ho Park, RHP Luke Prokopec, RHP Jeff Shaw, OF Gary Sheffield

The Scoop: The Dodgers finally rid themselves of Gary Sheffield, but in the end there's no question they're going to come out behind on the deal. Brian Jordan is nowhere near the hitter Sheffield is, and they come out nearly the same on the balance sheet (Jordan made $9.1M last year, Sheffield $9.9M). Given their relative production, those numbers should tell you which one is overpaid, or which is underpaid, whatever the case may be.

Simply put, the Dodgers are going to have some serious problems scoring runs next year, and it won't just be due to their home park. That was likely going to be an issue even with Sheffield, however.

In Terry Adams, James Baldwin, Chan Ho Park and Luke Prokopec, the Dodgers traded away or lost 618 innings and 91 starts. Given the money and injury history that accompanies those first three, letting them walk makes some sense. It would have been nice to keep Prokopec, however, a cheap young starter who fared well in his first full season.

All those departures mean the Dodgers are counting on full returns from Kevin Brown, Darren Dreifort and Andy Ashby, not to mention a solid year from Eric Gange. I'm extremely skeptical, and it's not as if there's a ton of help in the farm system either.

Prospect to Watch: OF Chin-Feng Chen. After a down 2000 season, Chen bounced back at AA with 35 extra-base hits in just 224 at-bats, a .313 average and 41 walks for a .422 OBP and .629 SLG. As we've seen above, the Dodgers could certainly use that sort of pop in their outfield. Likewise, Chen could probably use some time in AAA, but he should see Dodger Stadium in 2002.

San Diego Padres
2001 Record: 79-83

Say Hello: LHP Alan Embree, OF Ron Gant, C Tom Lampkin, LHP Robert Ramsay, RHP Steve Reed, RHP Brett Tomko, SS Ramon Vazquez
Say Goodbye: INF Alex Arias, C Ben Davis, OF Tony Gwynn, RHP Wascar Serrano

The Scoop: Quietly, the Padres are sneaking up on the rest of the division. Picked to finish last by many last year, they nearly finished at .500 despite a punchless outfield and a patchwork starting rotation. San Diego is where Oakland was several years ago -- ready to explode on the baseball world with a nice blend of old and young talent. They even have the young pitching, but more on that later.

This season Phil Nevin moves from third to first to make room for super-prospect Sean Burroughs, meaning Ryan Klesko takes his considerable pop to the outfield to join capable CF Mark Kotsay and some combination of Ray Lankford and Bubba Trammell in left. The middle infield has been solidified by SS Ramon Vazquez and 2B D'Angelo Jiminez, the latter of whom moves over from short after a solid rookie year (.355 OBP).

If Kevin Jarvis, Bobby Jones, Brian Tollberg, Brian Lawrence and Brett Tomko can hold down the fort for awhile, there is a great deal of young pitching on the way -- Adam Eaton should return by 2003, and prospects Jake Peavy, Dennis Tankersley and Eric Cyr could be in San Diego even sooner.

The five starters mentioned aren't chopped liver either, and it stands to reason that at least one of them -- I'd go with Lawrence, as he's the youngest -- will still be around to pitch with the prospects once they arrive. This class has the potential to be every bit as good as Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland.

Prospect to Watch: 3B Sean Burroughs. The Padres think enough of Burroughs to move Phil Nevin across the diamond to make room for him, and rightfully so. San Diego's new third-sacker brings a .327 career average from the minors and a .416 OBP to boot. He still hasn't hit for much power, but he's only 21 and has room to develop.

Colorado Rockies
2001 Record: 73-89

Say Hello: OF Benny Agbayani, C Tony Eusebio, LHP Brian Fuentes, C Carlos Hernandez, RHP Todd Jones, RHP Jose Paniagua, LHP Dennys Reyes, RHP Denny Stark, RHP Rick White, 3B Todd Zeile
Say Goodbye: LHP Brian Bohanon, 3B Jeff Cirillo, OF Jacob Cruz, C Sal Fasano, RHP Dan Miceli, LHP Mike Myers, OF Alex Ochoa, RHP Jay Powell, LHP Gabe White

The Scoop: My, that's quite a bit of change up there! After speculation that Jeff Cirillo and his lengthy contract would be moved in order to pay for Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle, he was indeed dealt to the Mariners for package of pitching (more on that later). Unfortunately, the Rockies saw fit to replace him with Todd Zeile, who will be acceptably for third in that: he's a better fit there than at first, and Coors Field will mask his mediocre offense.

Colorado also traded away Alex Ochoa, a pretty good fourth outfielder, and signed two backup catchers to steal playing time from Ben Petrick, a pretty solid catching prospect who has been ready for a major league job for two seasons. Overall it wasn't a "step in the right direction" type of winter, though turning Mike Myers into Jack Cust was a veritable steal.

As usual, pitching is going to be a problem for the Rockies. Part of that is Coors Field, of course, but part of it is assembling a group of mediocre hurlers. Neagle's homerific ways just aren't suited for Coors, while Hampton's walks and wildness are a problem in the sense that if you are going to allow homers, you might as well do so with no runners on base. On a positive note, rookie Shawn Chacon pitched well in his first season, as did John Thomson in 14 starts.

Prospect to Watch: "OF" Jack Cust. Will Cust finally get a chance to hit? The results were going to be good no matter where he got to play, but his numbers at Coors might be downright ridiculous. Of course, Cust's glovework is so bad that most are convinced he's a natural DH, which doesn't fly in the National League. He'll eventually stick in the AL or with a team that doesn't mind a butcher in left -- heck, Glenallen Hill kept getting jobs -- but I'm hoping he gets 500 at-bats in Coors just for entertainment value.

Wrap it Up
The way I see it, every team but one took a step backwards in the National League West this winter, either through trades, free agency or the effects of aging. Barring major changes, it isn't going to take 95 wins to win this division, and it might not even take 90. I might be a year early on this one, but if that's the case perhaps you'll remember that you heard about the Padres here first.

The Prediction: San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Colorado, Los Angeles.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker has never been early for anything in his life, but there's always a first time for everything. Send your early morning wake up calls to jmb@strikethree.com.

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