Prospect Report:
Right Makes, Er, Right

David Cameron

There are no big snazzy, inter-division prospect-for-prospect trades this week, unless you count Jeffrey Loria trading his front office to Florida. There's nothing like the owner of a poorly run franchise buying one who has developed one of the better talent bases in the game and then removing the people in charge of acquiring the talent.

With the exodus of most of the Marlins scouting staff to Pittsburgh, we may expect to see the Pirates improve their efforts on the international front. Of course, with the current organizational philosophy in place, that just means the Bucs will have to employ translators who can say "Tommy John" in 14 languages.

I would attempt to segue that into the best right field prospects in baseball, but the Pirates have no right fielder and no prospects, so I'm doomed to failure. Let's just get away from the Steel City and back to the land of happy times.

There are certainly happy times ahead for Austin Kearns, who should be aligning with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey in Cincinnati's new stadium to give the Reds one of the most talented outfields in recent memory. Kearns started off very slowly at AA Chattanooga and then missed a large portion of the season with a wrist injury. He played well upon his late season return and then dominated the Arizona Fall League in October.

Questions about Kearns' health have mostly been answered, and there has been talk that he could win a job in Spring Training. As talented as he is, we need to remember that he's only got a mediocre performance in a half-season of AA ball and probably could stand to benefit from a few months in AAA. As long as the wrist doesn't present a problem, Kearns could develop into a Shawn Green-type tools player who knows how to hit.

Speaking of tools and injuries, Josh Hamilton could have had possibly the worst year in recent history for a player named the number-one prospect in baseball just a year before. There were questions about his plate discipline after some solid, but not spectacular, experience in the low minors, but no one could have predicted the car wreck that was Hamilton's 2001 season. Actually, it was probably a spring training car accident that was the cause of many of his problems. He developed some nagging back injuries that wouldn't go away and led to his disastrous campaign.

There is little doubting his athletic abilities if he's healthy, however. If scouts could create a right fielder, they'd make Josh Hamilton. If the Hall of Fame could create a right fielder, it would make Babe Ruth, who looked nothing like our young GQ posterboy. The key to being great is the ability to hit, and I'm not convinced Josh has learned it yet. He may, and if he does, he'll be special. But he comes with some large question marks.

Michael Restovich is the fourth Twins prospect to make my Top Ten lists, and oddly enough all of them have names that begin with M. Restovich has a lot more in common with Cuddyer than Morneau or Mauer, however. He's also a slugger whose value comes in depositing the baseball in the $1 seats.

I generally like guys like this, especially when they show Mike's patience at the plate, but I have some reservations about him. He struggles to make contact at times and won't ever hit for a high average. There's a Tim Salmon type upside for him, but there's also the risk that he won't walk enough to keep his on-base percentage respectable. If I had to guess, I'd say Restovich would become a solid major-league player, but probably never an All-Star.

Gabe Gross is basically an Austin Kearns who went to college. They have strikingly similar games, though Kearns may have a bit more power. Gross is a year older than Kearns and hasn't had any high-level minor league experience yet, but he's got the physical skills and the intelligence to produce quickly. I have very little problem seeing Gross at the top of this list next year, pushing for a starting job in Toronto's outfield in 2003.

I'm going out on a limb with Grady Sizemore a bit. He didn't have a great year last year, wasn't exceptionally young for his level, and doesn't have one physical skill that makes you say "wow." However, he does have remarkable patience at the plate at a young age, and he's a highly intelligent fellow. He's a student of the game who is likely to overachieve his physical limitations. I see him as a very similar hitter to the good Darin Erstad who makes an appearance every few years. Sizemore won't be a masher, but he does everything well and I really like his future.

The Mariners have two All-Star outfielders in Mike Cameron and that Ichiro guy, a top-five left-field prospect in Chris Snelling, a top-five centerfield prospect in Jamal Strong, and Shin-Soo Choo, who could be better than all of them. The Mariners took the conservative root with Choo, allowing him to play the whole season in rookie ball, but we should see him start the year in the Midwest League in 2002. He's got developing power, terrific speed, an uncanny knowledge of the strike zone, and a power arm.

Choo's only real weakness is that he doesn't get a great jump on the ball, but he's only 19 and that can come with experience. He has the potential to be a plus player at every facet of the game, but he hasn't faced any major-league-quality pitching yet. I want to see him hit curveballs and changeups, but the Mariners' Asian influence probably isn't done yet.

The Astros don't believe in rushing their offensive prospects, so Jason Lane spent the whole year in AA despite tearing the cover off the ball and being 24 years old. There aren't any flaws in his numbers, but we have to keep in mind that he was a good bit older than he should have been to be in AA and that the Texas League is a virtual haven for power hitters. The last player to dominate the Texas League in such a way was Adam Piatt from the Oakland organization, and the jury is still out on him.

Lane may struggle in his adjustments at the major league level, but he's a pretty safe bet to be a major-league player. He's a Daryle Ward slump away from a job in Houston, and could post some nice first-year numbers.

Marcus Thames is a case study in context analysis. There is absolutely nothing wrong with his numbers. He hit for average, power, drew walks, didn't strike out too much, ran the bases well, and performed late in the year in the Arizona Fall League, impressing scouts all the way. He's got a nice set of defensive skills, has no character issues, and works harder than most guys blessed with his talented.

However, that year came absolutely out of nowhere. He was spending his third consecutive season in the Eastern League, and there is a definite possibility that Thames has simply learned how to hit AA pitching. That won't help him in the major leagues, however, so I'm exercising caution with Thames. He's got the physical abilities to be a fourth or fifth outfielder even if the hitting is a mirage. If something actually clicked and he really can hit like this, he's going to be a real nice player. I just want to see him do it again.

No matter what I write about Wily Mo Pena, half the world is going to disagree with me. There are two camps on the young man. There are the scouts who believe that such power/speed combinations are unbelievably rare and that Pena is a special talent who has the chance to turn into the new Sammy Sosa. Then there are analysts who look at Pena's absolutely horrible BB:K ratios, the giant flaws in his swing, and his lack of improvement over the past few years and feel that he'll be lucky to be the next Ruben Rivera.

The unfortunate thing is that we'll probably never find out. Pena signed a major-league contract with the Yankees (who later traded him to the Reds) that expires at the end of the 2002 season. He obviously hasn't accrued any service time to be eligible for free agency, but the expiration of his contract means that he'll be out of options and can't be sent back to the minor leagues without clearing waivers. With his physical abilities, there is no way teams would pass on him for a marginal waiver fee, so Pena needs to improve enough in 2002 to stick on a major-league roster starting next year.

He's just got too far to go. I'd expect he'll be a fifth outfielder for most of the next few years, mixing 450-foot home runs with ugly 0-for-5's with five strikeouts. The Reds are hoping that Pena can develop two years' worth of time this year, but its not likely, and Pena probably won't ever get those at-bats he needs to become a major-league hitter.

The Cubs have a really deep system, so J.J. Johnson tends to get overlooked. That's too bad, because he's got the potential to be really good. He was the Northwest League MVP and put together a very solid season. A former third baseman, he made the conversion to the outfield with ease and has the chance to be a very good defensive player with a competent bat. He runs well and has gap power with enough knowledge of the strike zone to get on base and help his team score runs. Johnson could take a big leap forward in Marlon Byrd style in 2002. Look for him to be much higher on this list next year.

about the author

Don't make the mistake of calling the small country of Cameroon, thinking that you'll reach David Cameron. Granted that such a thing would be as idiotic as calling a gecko instead of Geico, but we're just saying. Try dac@strikethree.com.