Off-Season Capsule: AL Central

Jason Michael Barker

Welcome back to our second of six capsules, today focusing on the American League Central. The Indians were back on top of the division last season after a one-year hiatus, but had to hold off the upstart Twins and slow-starting White Sox. Oh, and somewhere down there were the Tigers and Royals. Moving on...

Cleveland Indians
2001 Record: 91-71
Post-season: Lost to Seattle, 3-2

Say Hello: OF Brady Anderson, RHP Dave Elder, OF Alex Escobar, OF Matt Lawton, RHP Jerrod Riggan, RHP Mark Wohlers
Say Goodbye: 2B Roberto Alomar, RHP Dave Burba, OF Marty Cordova, OF Juan Gonzalez, OF Kenny Lofton, LHP John Rocker, LHP Rich Rodriguez, RHP Steve Woodard

The Scoop: What you see above represents a complete overhaul of the Tribe's outfield, with Marty Cordova, Kenny Lofton and Juan Gonzalez having been replaced by Brady Anderson, Alex Escobar and Matt Lawton. The fourth guy in that mix is Milton Bradley, acquired at the trade deadline last season.

The biggest concern over that group should be the lack of power -- Gonzalez and Cordova combined for 55 homers last year, but Cleveland will be lucky to get that many between their four new outfielders. Couple that lack of power with the loss of Roberto Alomar, and the Indians will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's 897-run performance.

The Indians have always seemed to be one starting pitcher short of getting over the proverbial hump, but they could reasonably put together a solid rotation next season. Bartolo Colon is very good, and C.C. Sabathia improved as the season went on, but the rest of the rotation is more of a question.

Chuck Finley is one year removed from being a good third starter, and Danny Baez and rookie Ryan Drese have the potential to ably fill the fourth and fifth slots. Baez moves in from the pen, where he held hitters to a .191 average last year, while Drese pitched well at three stops (3.58 ERA and a 149:61 K:BB ratio over 183.1 AA, AAA and major league innings).

Prospect to Watch: OF Alex Escobar. Once compared to Andruw Jones, injuries, inconsistency and poor strikezone judgment have derailed Escobar's career. He has the potential to be a nice power-speed player, but he has to tighten his command of the strikezone. He's still just 23, so there is time.

Minnesota Twins
2001 Record: 85-77

Say Hello: New owner Donald Watkins?
Say Goodbye: The entire organization?

The Scoop: The Twins are a fairly easy team to analyze, because they really have done nothing this off-season. Offensively, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz must improve his power numbers, as he hit just four homers after the break and just 15 overall, while the speedy middle infield combo of Christian Guzman and Luis Rivas must learn better plate discipline. New manager Ron Gardenhire can add some pop by giving C/DH Matt LeCroy more at-bats, as well as getting a full season from David Ortiz and playing rookie Michael Cuddyer.

If last season was any indication, pitching shouldn't be a problem. The top three spots in the rotation are filled by Brad Radke, Eric Milton and Joe Mays, with Kyle Lohse and Adam Johnson finishing out the rotation assuming Rick Reed is traded. If he's not, he'll eat up more innings while Lohse and Johnson fight it out for the last spot. The Twins feature a solid, if unspectacular, bullpen that should go largely untaxed if Radke, Milton and Mays are able to toss 200 innings apiece.

As an aside, I hope MLB allows Donald Watkins to buy the Twins. He's already a better owner that Carl Pohlad in that he actually wants to own the club, and he has some great ideas (including securing private financing for a new stadium).

Prospect to Watch: OF Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer began his career as a shortstop, but was a butcher in the field and was moved to 3B. He wasn't much better there, but it was apparent early on his bat would carry him regardless. Now in the outfield, he'll provide some much-needed pop after hitting 30 homers at AA in 2001.

Chicago White Sox
2001 Record: 83-79

Say Hello: RHP Ryan Kohlmeier, LHP Corey Lee, RHP Todd Ritchie
Say Goodbye: RHP Cal Eldred, LHP Alan Embree, RHP Josh Fogg, RHP Sean Lowe, 3B Herbert Perry, LHP David Wells, RHP Kip Wells

The Scoop: The Sox did very little on offense this winter, hoping that improvement from their younger hitters and the return of Frank Thomas will be enough to bolster a lineup that scored 798 runs last year, good for sixth in the league. Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko and Carlos Lee are all on the right side of 30 and have power, while rookie 3B Joe Crede should solidify the position after a solid year at AAA, so the plan doesn't seem all that crazy. If Thomas comes close to his .319/.438/.577 career line, the White Sox shouldn't have any problem scoring runs.

Pitching is a different story, however. Chicago had a chance to rid themselves of some dead arms this winter and did so, failing to bring back either David Wells or Cal Eldred. They then went out and traded three pretty good arms -- Kip Wells, Josh Fogg and Sean Lowe -- for Todd Ritchie, who is little more than an innings eater. Still, he should slot well behind a young rotation led by Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland, and possibly Jon Rauch if he returns from injury.

Prospect to Watch: 3B Joe Crede. With Herbert Perry gone and Carlos Lee firmly entrenched in left, the job should be all Crede's in 2002. He has good power, draws a fair number of walks, and is more than solid with the glove. He's no star, but at age 42 he should be a solid player for years to come.

Detroit Tigers
2001 Record: 66-96

Say Hello: RHP Juan Acevedo, OF Jacob Cruz, INF Craig Paquette, OF Dmitri Young
Say Goodbye: OF Roger Cedeno, 1B Tony Clark, SS Deivi Cruz, OF Juan Encarnacion

The Scoop: The Tigers scored more runs than only three clubs in the American League last season, and while some of that can be attributed to playing half their games in a poor hitters' park, most of the blame rests on a poor group of hitters. Tony Clark might not have been the best hitter at his position, but he was the club's best hitter, and the Tigers let him go for... nothing, losing him on waivers to the Red Sox. This offense needs an injection of young hitting talent, and soon. Eric Munson (26 homers, 84 walks at AA), anyone?

The Tigers also allowed 876 runs last season, more than all but Tampa Bay and Texas in the AL, and that's a horrible number considering their home park. The good news is that there is pitching help on the way to help Jeff Weaver and Steve Sparks, the former of whom is quickly developing into a top starter. Watch in particular for 6-5 RHP Nate Cornejo and soft-tossing lefty Adam Pettyjohn, both of whom could find themselves in the starting rotation when the season starts.

Prospect to Watch: SS Omar Infante. The Tigers didn't offer Deivi Cruz a contract, presumably making room for Infante in the near future. He's extremely young, which makes his .302 average and .355 OBP at AA last year all the more impressive -- any player who can hold his own, let alone hit .302, in AA at age 19 has serious potential. To make matters even better, he drew 46 walks in 540 at-bats.

Kansas City Royals
2001 Record: 65-97

Say Hello: "OF" Chuck Knoblauch, OF Michael Tucker
Say Goodbye: C Greg Zaun

The Scoop: Where to begin? The Royals have to quality hitters in Carlos Beltran and Mike Sweeney, but after that question marks abound. Chuck Knoblauch and Michael Tucker aren't the way to flank Beltran, although I suppose anything is an improvement over Mark Quinn's horrific .298 OBP from a year ago.

Prospect SS Angel Berroa has some pop in his bat and is young, but the Royals seem to like Neifi Perez at the postion for some reason, despite the fact that he's never hit well away from Coors Field. Kansas City had a chance to retain Greg Zaunn, a good catching option, but chose instead to re-sign Brent Mayne. Overall, nothing was done to improve an offense that scored just 728 runs a year ago.

If there's any promise at all in Kansas City, it's on the mound, where you can at least say the pitchers are young. The staff is led by 26-year old Jeff Suppan, coming off his best season in the majors. A former top prospect in the Red Sox organization, he posted a 4.37 ERA last year and still has some upside.

The same is true of youngsters Chad Durbin and Kris Wilson, who were far from horrible in the first full seasons. When healthy, Paul Byrd and Blake Stein can provide innings, and lefty Chris George showed good control in his first 13 major league starts last season.

Prospect to Watch: 1B Ken Harvey. The top hitting prospect in the system, Harvey hit .380 at high-A Wilmington before being moved up to AA, where he slid to .338/.372/.506 line. He has a better knowledge of the strikezone than Quinn, and could be Kansas City's DH with a strong spring.

Wrap It Up
This is a hard division to call, though I do think it's clear that the Indians have slipped while the White Sox should improve. I'm not quite sure what to make of the Twins, but their improvement seems real for the most part, as it has come from younger players rather than veterans putting together one last good year. The Tigers and Royals are still horrible, of course, and that doesn't seem likely to change in the near future.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cleveland has fallen farther than people think, while the Twins will be better... but not quite good enough.

The Prediction: Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit.

about the author

Contrary to popular opinion, Jason Michael Barker didn't invent Pizza in a Cup (tm), though he wishes he had. Suggest "Pie in a Shoe" instead at jmb@strikethree.com.

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