Prospect Report:
Get Shorty

David Cameron

The winter meetings are coming to an end, which is a bit of a shame for baseball fans. It's a great weeklong oasis in the desert of December, allowing us to wake up every morning knowing that there's a real possibility that the news is going to be dominated by baseball. And it's actually not going to have anything to do with Bud Selig.

On a side note, how fun would it be to be a GM this week? You spend a week in a five-star hotel, setting up meetings in restaurants with other baseball lifers, scribbling names on napkins and generally acting like an eight-year-old at a slumber party. For five days, all you do is talk baseball trades and try to make your team better. Thursday, we cap it off with the Rule V draft where teams take each others' not-ready prospects and set them back in development a year by having them waste away on the bench. Who thought of this anyway?

On to the players who won't be getting traded or being taken in the Rule V draft. This week, it's the Ten Best Shortstops in Baseball.

The Atlanta Braves continued the annual tradition of laying an egg by acquiring a player that they didn't need for more money than he was worth with Vinny Castilla filling the Rico Brogna memorial roster spot. There is a positive note in this move however; it buys Wilson Betemit more time in the minors. The 20-year-old had a chance to make the roster out of spring training, but he really isn't ready.

Betemit just might be the most gifted physical player in the minors, with an athlete's body that produces power, speed, and defensive skills that allow him to handle shortstop with ease. He's got a chance to be really special with an upside close to that of Nomar Garciaparra. However, his 183 at-bat hot streak in AA hides the fact that he has some holes in his game and needs another year or so in the minors. The Braves should be patient with him, but he could end up as a star, either at short or at third.

Brandon Phillips had a schizophrenic season between two levels. Starting at Class A Jupiter, he hit for a little power (.428 slugging) but showed great patience (38 BB and 45 K in 194 AB). His success got him promoted to AA Harrisburg, where he drove the ball more (.449 slugging) but stopped walking (12 BB and 42 K in 265 AB).

Phillips also hits for a good average and has good speed and instincts on the bases, so he's shown all the skills that make a successful major leaguer, just not at the same time. With a little more seasoning, he should combine all the elements and become a terrific shortstop.

Miguel Cabrera is a classic case of projection. His numbers at low-A Kane County aren't impressive (.268/.328/.382), and he doesn't have a long history of success to bounce back to. Cabrera is, however, just 18 years old and has a lot of growth in his body. He physically resembles Alex Rodriguez and his swing generates a lot of power.

I got to watch Cabrera take batting practice at the Futures Game and he had a very solid approach and bat speed that allowed him to really drive the ball. He's got a lot of potential, but he's two or three years away. He probably shouldn't be pushed quickly.

The Tigers have a glut of middle infield prospects, led by soon-to-be-starting shortstop Omar Infante. He played the season at AA as a 19-year-old and showed tremendous defensive skills. The Tigers glow about his ability to turn the double play and his range at short is unquestionable. Infante is also the rare defensive wizard who can hit, posting a terrific .302 batting average with 46 walks.

It can't be underemphasized that Infante was extremely young for AA and more than held his own. He's never going to be a power hitter, but he has a good mix of Omar Vizquel-type skills. Randy Smith needs to resist the temptation to give Infante the job before 2003 or 2004, as Omar's biggest asset right now is his youth. Let him develop and gain confidence in the minors, as I have a feeling he could wind up as a big disappointment if the Tigers expect him to hit major-league pitching next year.

The Mariners demanded Pokey Reese in the Ken Griffey deal, but were told he wasn't available. Disappointed, they decided to go after Travis Dawkins instead. Again, they were told he wasn't available. So they settled on Antonio Perez, who has more talent than the other two combined. Perez lost 2001 to a wrist injury, but showed a lot of promise in the Cal League as a 19-year-old in 2000.

He did play in a terrific hitters park and it was the first time he'd ever shown home run power, so I really want to see how he does in AA next year before anointing him a legitimate All-Star prospect, but he's got a chance to be a really good player. Wrist injuries have a way of sapping power and lingering, so don't be surprised if Perez struggles to start the year and has a big second half in 2002.

The worst day of Angel Berroa's career may be the day the A's sent him to the Royals in the Johnny Damon trade (side note: when does it become "the Cory Lidle trade"?). Berroa is a big shortstop with a strong arm and average range whose ticket to the majors are his bat and the power it generates. He'll never be a star defensively or on the base paths, so his value will come when he's in the batter's box.

Unfortunately for Berroa, he doesn't walk at all and the Royals love that in a player. While the A's could have taught him the patience he needs to be successful, it's doubtful the Royals will instill this same discipline. He kept his AA OBP high with a ridiculous amount of hit-by-pitches, but I'm not convinced that it's a skill that will translate at the major-league level, so Berroa has to start walking or he's not going to produce. Of course, the Royals did help Mike Sweeney, Carlos Beltran, and Jermaine Dye develop, and Berroa has the physical skills, so don't count him out. Just don't count on him yet, either.

The Astros took Chris Burke with the tenth pick in the draft and sent him directly to the Midwest League, where he did nothing to shame the pick. He hit .300 with good patience and showed good instincts on the bases with 21 steals. His power will develop, and his conversion from wood to aluminum went very well. There's mixed reviews on whether he can remain at shortstop with a mediocre arm, but the Astros will give him every opportunity.

With Keith Ginter and Craig Biggio around at second and a hole at shortstop, Houston picked Burke to help the left side of the infield and they'll let him try until he fails. He may not have the same long range potential as Betemit or Cabrera, but he could be a good major-league shortstop by 2003.

The Mets' system got unbelievably bare with the Roberto Alomar trade this week, so you'll probably hear a lot about Jose Reyes next year due to a lack of other options to hype. As an 18-year-old in full-season ball, Reyes flashed some tremendous tools. He hit .300, stole 30 bases, and slugged .472 despite hitting just five home runs. He's got the traditional cannon arm and great range that go with most Latin shortstops, but his offensive potential is why the Mets trumpet him as the answer to the problem that is Rey Ordonez.

However, his approach at the plate needs a lot of work, as he walked only 18 times and struck out 71 times. If Reyes improves his patience, he could be really good, but let's not make the assumption automatic. He needs work.

The San Diego Padres sent the disappointing Ben Davis to Seattle in hopes that they have ended their shortstop search with Ramon Vazquez. At 25 years of age, he had a breakthrough season in AAA, flashing above-average defense with solid patience at the plate. He's not a tools guy, as he won't ever hit a lot of homers or steal many bases, but he does the important things that win games.

After putting up a .397 on-base percentage in AAA, Vazquez has gone to winter ball and hit .375/.458/.558 with 20 walks against just 17 strikeouts in 120 at-bats. He's major-league ready, and the Padres are going to make him their everyday shortstop in 2002. He won't be a star, but should be a solid player and is ready to contribute.

I considered not ranking Kelly Johnson on this list due to the fact that it's highly unlikely he'll play shortstop in the major leagues. A switch to 2B or 3B is very likely, and certain if he stays with the Braves. However, as Eric Hinske showed us earlier this week, if you have a bat, a team may live with your defensive shortcomings. Johnson played his whole 2001 season at SS, so I'm putting him here anyways.

Offensively, he'd rank probably third or fourth on the list, as he can really hit. As a 19-year-old, he knocked 23 balls over the fence to get a .513 slugging percentage in A-ball. He walked 71 times in 415 at-bats, showing good patience. He stole 25 bases and only got caught 6 times. There's no question he's a force with a bat in his hands.

The question the Braves will have to ask themselves is whether Johnson's liabilities on defense negate his value on offense. If he wants to stay at short, hard work could allow his defense to become playable, but he'll probably be more successful if he moves to an easier defensive position and concentrates on his strengths. I like Johnson though, and I think he'll have few problems adjusting and becoming a very good prospect, no matter where he ends up.

about the author

David Cameron is a "tools guy." Ask to borrow his belt sander at dac@strikethree.com.