Prospect Report:
Second Guessing

David Cameron

If you're reading this column, it means you: 1) like baseball, and 2) have too much free time. Well, you're probably hard to shop for when Christmas rolls around. Let me give you a suggestion: The Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract (available from the Strikethree Store!). 1000 pages worth of stories, rankings, evaluations, theories, and all things baseball. You won't get a better Christmas gift.

Even the venerable Bill James would have problems coming up with ten good second-base prospects, however. The majority of major-league second baseman don't start out there. It's the dumping ground for shortstops with bad arms, center fielders without enough range, and third basemen who can't hit enough to play the hot corner at the major league level.

It's hard to project position switches, however, as hard work can make a big difference in someone's defensive abilities. So I've simply ranked the ten who I feel are the best players to have spent the majority of their 2001 seasons at second base. They may not all end up as second basemen, and there are probably better players who will end up at second base, but speculating on switches of that nature is impossible, so I'll just avoid it altogether.

Leading the charge is Keith Ginter, who had an amazing season in AA in 2000 and followed it with a solid, if not as spectacular, season in AAA last year. He has a lot of power for a second baseman and projects as a Jeff Kent style of player. His batting average isn't consistently high and he strikes out a lot, but his patience makes up for it, keeping his on-base percentage in the .380-.400 range.

Ginter's defense at second is serviceable, but the Astros could move him to third if they want to waste another year of Morgan Ensberg. There is also the possibility that Ginter could play left field if they want to get him and Biggio in the lineup at the same time. His bat is major-league quality, though, and the Astros would do well to make room for him.

Bobby Hill was originally drafted by the White Sox, but held out and was re-drafted by the Cubs. After finally signing, he went to AA and proved that he was worth the wait. He hit for a high average, drew a lot of walks, didn't strike out much, stole bases, and played good defense.

The only thing he didn't do is hit for power, but he has the ability to add a little more upper-body strength and become a 10-15 home-run guy in the majors. He has great leadoff hitter skills and is nearly ready for the major leagues. He'll start 2002 at AAA, but isn't that far off, and could be the Cubs' leadoff hitter by July.

The White Sox drafted Tim Hummel nine picks after the Cubs drafted Hill in 2000, and have to be happy with him as well. He also handled AA pitching at age 22, though didn't show proficiency in one area like Hill did. He's solid across the board, but has good gap power. He hit 33 doubles to go with his seven home runs and should be a 15-20 HR guy in the majors.

Hummel knows what he's doing at the plate and has good enough tools to play second base and could back up at shortstop. If he continues to develop, he'll be a valuable hitter and could force Ray Durham out of Chicago by 2003.

When the A's shipped off Jose Ortiz to get Jermaine Dye, most publications reported that Oakland had traded their second baseman of the future. This wasn't true. Esteban German didn't go anywhere. German had a fantastic year between AA/AAA, hitting over .300 with a .430 OBP and stealing 48 bases.

German's not much of a power threat, but he's very similar to Bobby Hill in that he does the two things well that make a valuable leadoff hitter. His defense is good and he should do well to replace Johnny Damon atop the A's lineup sometime in 2002. A very underrated prospect who could be one of the better second basemen in baseball pretty soon.

Orlando Hudson really made a name for himself by hitting .426 in his Arizona Fall League stint, but observant folks had noticed he was pretty good in the regular season as well. He hit .307/.385/.471 at AA before a promotion to AAA, where he hit .304/.378/.469. He got exactly 500 at-bats, drawing 60 walks and striking out 74 times. He also stole 19 bases. He's above average at every skill and versatile enough to play second or third base. He may not be a star, but could be a really useful Randy Velarde-type utility player for years to come.

The Tigers had a great 2001 draft, and Michael Woods is a product of that. He signed early and got his first 200 professional at-bats in full-season ball and put up a .401 OBP, which is plenty impressive for a player making the switch from aluminum to wood. He didn't show much power, but he's got the body to drive the ball and I believe that will come. He could fly up this list next year and has as much potential as anyone at the position. A real nice player and a great pick by the Tigers.

The Cubs traded Adam Morrissey to the A's for Mark Bellhorn because, essentially, they don't think he's got the defensive tools to be an infielder. He played second, third, short, and the outfield this year but the A's believe he can hit enough to force himself into the lineup. He was one of the best hitters in the Midwest League at age 20 and is very similar to Frank Catalanatto, who almost won the batting title for Texas this year. It was a great pickup for Oakland, and Morrissey is exactly the type of player that smart organizations find uses for.

Jason Bourgeois was also a second round pick in 2000, received as compensation for the loss of Aaron Sele. While the Rangers certainly could use Sele in their rotation, they have to like having Bourgeois in their system. He showed good power and speed in Pulaski, hitting 21 extra-base hits and stealing the same number of bases. He drew 26 walks in 251 at-bats, which is respectable for a 19-year-old. The former shortstop has good range and soft enough hands that the Rangers could team with A-Rod up the middle if Michael Young fails to take the job. I want to see him hit at higher levels, but I like his overall game.

The Diamondbacks may have gotten one of the steals of the 2001 draft in Scott Hairston, a third-rounder. Hairston went to Missoula (rookie ball, great hitters' park, great hitters' league) and hit .347/.432/.588 with 38 walks and only 50 strikeouts. He's a very different player than his brother Jerry, second baseman with the Orioles. He drives the ball well and is an offensive force while not running that well. His defense at second base is playable, though he probably won't be a gold-glover. His bat will have to carry him. It was rookie ball, so he's nowhere close to the majors, but it was a good debut.

Joe Thurston probably has more talent than everyone else above him. He has exceptional speed and good range for a second baseman (as most converted shortstops do), above-average power, and good reflexes. He just needs to be more patient at the plate and go the other way more often. If he can make the adjustments necessary to hit .280 and get his walk rate up to the ten-percent level, he'll be a useful player with the tools to be a Johnny Damon type mini-star.

David Cameron is supposedly very good with the stick. Tell him to stop bragging about it at dac@strikethree.com. It's just disgusting.