Prospect Report:
Strong at First

David Cameron

Here's the question of the day:

If there are just as many left-handed hitters in baseball as right-handed hitters, and if both first base and third base are equidistant from home plate, why is third base the "hot corner" while first base is where Cecil Fielder played? When you come up with the answer, you let me know.

Which segues us into the ten best first base prospects in baseball. And we'll get to the one who resembles Cecil Fielder about halfway through.

You've heard about Nick Johnson, I'm sure. You heard about him during the season, when Tino Martinez was rumored to be traded. You heard about him during the postseason, when he got left off the roster in favor of Luis Sojo. You've heard about him during the offseason, when Jason Giambi's "I won't DH" comments made you wonder if Johnson was willing to leave his glove at home. But until you've seen Nick Johnson hit, you won't understand why he gets the New York press talking.

I made sure I went to all the Columbus Clippers games in Charlotte this year because I wanted to see Nick Johnson hit. Disappointing he was not. His bat speed is as good as anyone's in baseball, minus maybe Gary Sheffield. He has a left-handed swing that looks like it was edited from a Tom Emanski offensive-drills video. And he has an amazing eye, laying off a pitch an inch off the plate for ball four and, while on his way to first base, telling the ump he knew it was a ball. The nights I saw Johnson play, he went 6-12 with two long home runs, including one that just landed a few minutes ago.

I saw him again at the Futures Game and, while he didn't put on a show, was again impressed. He's a hitting machine, folks. He posted a .527 on-base percentage in AA as a twenty-year-old, and put up solid numbers in AAA despite recovering from a wrist injury that cost him the whole 2000 season. If the Yankees do sign Giambi, they'll add their second great first baseman to the team for 2002.

And Nick Johnson's work with the glove will probably convince Giambi that the free agent should take up DHing after all. By 2004, Johnson will probably be the better hitter too.

Carlos Pena is a very similar hitter to the player he'll eventually replace, Rafael Palmeiro. His strong second half after struggling with injuries before the All-Star break led to an overall strong season. Some have questioned his power, considering he hit "only" 23 home runs this year. He also had 38 doubles and three triples, meaning that over half of his 124 hits were for extra-bases. That's power, folks. Pena's going to add more muscle and a lot of those 38 doubles will soon leave the park.

He worked hard on his defensive game and is a now a quality defensive first baseman and even adds a bit of speed (11-14 in SB). Pena's going to be a very good hitter, and he should be ready to slot in nicely as a part of the Rangers offense next year.

When discussing prospects that will emerge next year, the first name off my lips is Justin Morneau. The converted catcher ripped through low-A ball, hitting .356 with good BB:K rates and power. He was promoted to high-A Fort Myers just after his 20th birthday and continued to hit there, though his power dropped off significantly. He was overmatched in a trial late in the year in AA, but there aren't too many 20-year-olds who can go from rookie ball to AA in a year.

Morneau gets a lot of comparisons to Mark Grace, but he has more power than Grace has. He doesn't walk as prodigiously as Johnson or Pena, but that's because he hits for such a high average. He knows the strike zone very well and his power will develop. I think he has more potential than Pena does, but I just want to see him hit AA pitching next year. He could very easily be next year's Adam Dunn.

Spellcheckers and pitchers have one common enemy: Hee Seop Choi. He suffered through a miserable AAA campaign this year, mired by a season-long slump and nagging injuries. He still showed considerable power and good patience and I have no problems believing his ability to hit for a high average will return along with his health next year. He may not be ready to start the season as the Cubs' first baseman, but he's not very far away. He's the top power-hitting first baseman in the minors and the only legitimate 50-home-run threat on this list.

When the Florida Marlins drafted Adrian Gonzalez, they thought they were getting an easy sign, a good glove, and a respectable bat. What they're really getting is the cockiest minor league player on the planet. His preseason projection of a .420 batting average in full-season ball as a 19-year-old was ridiculous and is the only standard by which you could consider his season a disappointment.

He did hit .312, showed more power than expected, and showed off impressive patience, especially for a teenager facing experienced pitchers. He's a couple years away from the majors, and only time will tell if he'll make the necessary adjustments, but for a kid who's goal is to hit .420, I have to be optimistic.

The chasm between the fifth- and sixth-best prospects at any position will not be as great as it is at first base. While Gonzalez is a pretty safe bet to have a major-league career, the jury is out on Ken Harvey, who is a lot closer to tenth on this list than he is to fifth. His numbers are impressive: .380 batting average in Wilmington, .338 in Wichita. However, he hit just 15 home runs as a 23-year-old and doesn't have nearly as much projection as the younger players on this list.

Considering he's listed generously at 240 pounds, you'd expect a lot more power from a man of his size. He's basically a singles-hitting Cecil Fielder. Top it off with the fact that he's in an inept organization that discourages hitters from being patient at the plate and I'm not optimistic that he'll improve his marginal plate discipline. Harvey is a young player with old man skills and a questionable physique who doesn't project as an above average player as it is. There's a lot of risk here. Think Kevin Young and you won't be disappointed.

The Cincinnati Reds have a lot of OF/1B types at the major-league level and one who just finished AA that deserves a shot. Ben Broussard had a big season at Chattanooga, but his outfield defense is awful and he may not have enough of a stick to play every day as a first baseman. He was old for AA and doesn't project to add a lot more home-run power. His fifty extra-base hits were solid, but more along the lines of production you'd get from John Olerud, who was winning American League batting titles when he was 24.

The presence of Sean Casey probably ends Broussard's future in Cincinnati. He's a major-league hitter, but maybe not a major-league regular first baseman. I'd like to see him get a shot, but he probably needs a new organization.

There is little question Eric Munson has been a disappointment since the Tigers used their first round pick on him, but now the question is whether Munson's problems making contact will prevent him from being a major-league hitter at all. He drew a solid 84 walks in AA, but struck out 141 times, which is alarmingly high. He only hit .260, and while his power is undeniable, I have to wonder if his combination of back problems and contact struggles are a coincidence.

A former catcher, Munson's body is not as whole as a normal 24-year-old's, and he's yet to really succeed against advanced pitching. The talent is there, but it's questionable whether he can put the whole package together.

I considered ranking Casey Kotchman higher, but felt that I'd prefer to see him get more than his token 37 professional at-bats. Those were rather impressive at-bats, however. Kotchman is the son of Angels coach Tom Kotchman, and it shows. He's got major-league characteristics at a young age and is extremely polished. He has a compact swing that generates a lot of bat speed. He's not a prodigious home run hitter, but he definitely doesn't lack power.

There's little reason Kotchman couldn't make it to AA next year and crack the Angels' lineup in 2003. He's in Morneau's class talentwise, but just needs a bit more seasoning.

Travis Hafner put up solid numbers in AA, but no one noticed because teammate Hank Blalock was too busy reminding everyone of George Brett. He's not the Rangers 1B of the future, thanks to Carlos Pena, and you hate to project a young player as a DH, so Hafner's future may not be in Texas. He's eerily similar to Ben Broussard, and he'd make a really solid acquisition for a rebuilding club who wanted to save money at first base and still got good production.

A quick note before I go. I didn't forget Lyle Overbay. I just don't think he's that good. He's certainly not as good as Erubiel Durazo and could be passed by a kid who just missed the top ten in Jesus Cota. Overbay has little future in Arizona, and I'm not sure he's a major-league hitter.

about the author

David Cameron long ago managed to put the whole package together, and now spends every spare moment trying to make the damn instructions intelligible for others. If you have better Japanese translation skills than most electronics companies, get in touch with David at dac@strikethree.com.