Prospect Report:
Catcher In Their Eye

David Cameron

It's the weekend after Thanksgiving, and you know what that means. Put down those "free with mail-in rebate that you'll never mail in, you sucker!" ads, sleep in, and buckle down, because it's time for the prime time for prospect followers: List Season.

Everyone does them. I think my Mom is even going to compile a Top 100 list this year, fearing backlash from her friends if she doesn't join the new "in thing". I'm going to do it slightly differently than everyone else though, simply because I'm different. At least, that's the reason I keep hearing from girls as they walk the other way. Enough about me; on to the prospects.

We're going to look at the top ten prospects for each position starting with catcher this week. The list will be found over at the Prospect Ten and I'll explain my thoughts in greater detail here. So go ahead, go check out my thoughts on the ten best catching prospects in baseball. Go ahead, I'll wait. This column will be a lot less fun if you don't read it. Back? Good. Onward ho (comments like that may also have something to do with my singleness).

I went with Josh Phelps as the best catching prospect in baseball because he can flat out hit. At AA Tennessee, he hit .292/.406/.562 (BA/OBP/SLG). He walked 80 times and had 68 extra base hits in 486 at-bats. Those are huge numbers. He's developed patience, he's got power, and he hits for a high average. His defense is, by all reports, mediocre at best, however.

With the emphasis major league teams place on defense behind the plate and the presence of Jayson Werth in their system, its not likely the Blue Jays will leave Phelps alone. Its unclear where he'll be moved, as the Jays are already overloaded at first base, DH, and the corner outfield spots, but they do like his bat and will attempt to find a place to play him.

A savvy team who needed a good-hitting catcher could attempt to trade for him and stick him behind the plate. Despite Mike Piazza's mediocre defense, his bat has made him the best catcher of all time. Phelps doesn't have that much potential, but he could be a valuable asset behind the plate despite his defensive deficiencies.

Joe Mauer came in a close second and I think everyone will agree that Mauer has more potential than Phelps does. The number one pick in last June's draft, he's got a line drive swing, good patience, and above average defensive tools. He hit .400 in his professional debut in short-season ball as an 18-year-old. He's quick, agile, and has a good arm.

His defensive makeup will allow him to be valuable even if he doesn't develop a prodigious power stroke, but he's definitely got the bat to be the overall package. He may not have Pudge's arm, but he has Ivan Rodriguez-like potential.

I have a feeling I'll get some disagreements about placing Ryan Christianson third due to the fact that he hasn't really had a successful minor-league season yet. He's had problems making contact, hitting just .248/.320/.415 in high-A this year. However, all the peripheral numbers are in place. His walk rate is pretty good for a 20-year-old catcher, especially one a step away from AA.

Christianson was fifth in the league in extra-base hits, showing obvious power despite just hitting 12 home runs. The Stampede's pitching staff was one of the best in the league and pitchers Craig Anderson and Matt Thornton both talked about how great he was as a receiver. He was drafted for his arm, but his bat is major-league as well. He needs to improve like most young players, but he's ahead of the curve.

The Houston Astros dealt away Garett Gentry in the Pedro Astacio deal, officially making John Buck their catcher-of-the-future. He's got pop, hitting 22 home runs at Lexington. His walk rate could use improvement, but it's not bad. The Astros really like his arm. It's raw, but really strong. He has plus defensive tools but needs refining. He'll likely be an above-average defensive catcher, but probably not a top-flight guy.

His power is for real, but his value will hinge on his patience and his batting average. If he's patient and hits .290, he'll be an all-star. If he keeps his current walk rate and hits .270, he'll be a useful catcher but probably less than what the Astros are hoping for. He has the biggest chance to fail of any of the top guys on this list.

The consensus number-one catching prospect in baseball last year was J.R. House, but he really struggled in AA Altoona this year. He considered switching back to college football, but stuck with baseball and still has as much talent as anyone on this list.

He's got a big-league bat, but needs to develop more of an approach at the plate. He looked defensive at the plate this year, but good coaching can cause him to attack the ball and make the pitcher give him his pitch. It's questionable whether he'll get good coaching in Pittsburgh however. I think he'll bounce back in 2001 and establish himself as a top prospect again.

The aforementioned Werth was a failed prospect that the Orioles gave up on way too soon. He showed good patience but a lack of power in the lower minors, but found his stroke after coming to Toronto. He has a solid arm and is a better defensive catcher than Phelps, so he'll probably end up winning that job.

Werth's combination of solid across-the-board skills could make him a Jason Kendall-type threat, but some scouts have questioned his desire. I think he'll end up somewhere between Kendall and Brad Ausmus.

The Rockies stole Gentry from the Astros. He's not a defensive star, but more of a Josh Phelps type. He's not as patient but he's got a ways to go. Good power and good contact meet Coors Field and you've got Todd Helton behind home plate. If Gentry keeps developing, he's going to put up some amazing numbers, but I'd like to see how he does at AA before I anoint him as a star in the making.

The Rangers took a gamble that scouts were wrong and Scott Heard could hit. No one doubted his arm, which is as good as that of anyone on the planet. He has complete defensive skills, but just didn't project as enough of a hitter to be an impact major leaguer.

Well, so far, he's done nothing but hit, showing patience and gap power. He doesn't have to be a great hitter to be valuable and he probably won't be, but he could be a defensive force that's an asset with a bat in his hands. He needs more experience and there is plenty of time for things to go wrong, but his career is off to a good start.

Mike Rivera had a huge 2001 season at AA. He hit 33 home runs and slugged .587, but we need to keep in mind his age. He was 24 and his lack of doubles tells us that he's reached his power potential. He's not going to develop anymore with the bat unless he becomes extremely patient, which isn't likely in the Tigers organization.

His catching skills are marginal and the Tigers consider Brandon Inge their catcher of the future, so Rivera will have to see if he can hit enough to play first base. He is next year's Craig Wilson, if he gets a shot.

Brad Cresse, former World Series hero, has been one of the bright spots in the Arizona farm system. Another patient, line-drive hitting catcher with suspect defensive tools, the Diamondbacks would be wise to let him keep hitting despite his problems behind the plate.

They really have no other options in the system and if he works hard enough, Cresse could be a solid player. Low upside, but odds are he'll be the first of these ten to make a major league impact.

about the author

David Cameron once believed himself a top-flight major-league backstop, until coaches noticed that he flinched every time the pitcher would deliver. Someone get Mackey Sasser on the line at dac@strikethree.com.