Season Wrap: NL Style

Dave Paisley

Well, it's been an exciting week in baseball, what with lawsuits (like we didn't expect that, huh?) and post-season awards and the start of the free agent derby. Before I get to my rehash of the past season's National League and how reality compared to my prognostications, I'd like to put in a word or two about Ichiro Suzuki winning the AL MVP.

First, it was about the only award that was up in the air. Both Cy Youngs and the NL MVP were pretty much foregone conclusions, like it or not. The AL MVP race had at least three good candidates and more if you looked beyond just the playoff teams. I wrote a couple of months ago that Ichiro shouldn't and probably wouldn't win it. Impressive run scored totals, batting average and stolen bases don't typically get you an MVP award. But, for whatever reason, enough voters picked him for the way he changed the rules and brought something different, possibly even unique, to the American game. While I might not personally have picked him as MVP, there's no doubt that he deserves the award. I can hardly imagine the joy in Japan as their favorite son takes home the batting title, the stolen base crown, a gold glove, the Rookie of the Year award and now the American League MVP. That's enough hardware for most guys in a career, never mind a guy new to the major leagues.

So I'm just going to alsute an extraordinary talent and move on, confident in the knowledge that I'll be seeing him in Seattle for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, over in the National league last season, here's how things went. The tables show actual records (W, L, W-L, Games Behind), my prediction (Est W), and how far off I was (W-Est W). Then each team features a summary of my pre-season comments, followed either by a smug "see how prescient I was", or a, "where did that truck come from?" observation. Basically, anything within 5 games for a given team is as close as it gets, within 10 games is OK, and beyond 15 games is way off. So here goes and, by the way, the division name headers are links to my original pre-season articles.

NL East

Team	W	L	W-L	Est W	(W-Est W)
Atlanta	88	74	14	92	4
Philadelphia	86	76	10	65	21
NY Mets	82	80	2	89	7
Florida	76	86	-10	79	3
Montreal	68	94	-26	72	4

Braves - 4 games off. Favorites again, but with creeping problems on offense

Not too bad a prediction. The Braves suffered horribly on offense, with Chipper Jones the lone standout. With an aging pitching staff, the Braves could be in for rough times ahead.

Phillies - 21 games off. Expected bullpen of Mesa and Bottalico to flame out

My prediction of dire things for the Phillies was way off. I still think that expecting Mesa and Bottalico to gt the job done was way optimistic, and yet they both did very well. Allied to a balanced but not spectacular offense, they did well. Normally, you would expect them to improve, but there's a lot of dissension over there, so maybe not. Then again, it is Philly, right?

Mets - 7 games off. Lost quality in the off-season, but resilient

I expected more of them, but the dsmantling of the starting rotation and horrible start took care of that. I guess the late season run promises hope for next season, but I thought that about the Tigers last year, only to be proved horribly wrong.

Marlins - 3 games off. Close to .500

Unjustly lumped in as horrible with the other Florida team, this team actually has (had?) promise. Contraction, moving, uncertainty will probably take the wind out of whatever sails are left, though, going into next year.

Expos - 4 games off. Might break 70 wins - optimisitc

A good start led to excessive hopes for the lowly Expos, who are stretched too thin and have too little real support to make a go of it on a shoestring budget. Question is, when they get contracted, who gets their wins?

NL Central

Team	W	L	W-L	Est W	(W-Est W)
Houston	93	69	24	81	12
St. Louis	93	69	24	88	5
Chicago Cubs	88	74	14	75	13
Milwaukee	68	94	-26	72	4
Cincinnati	66	96	-30	86	20
Pittsburgh	62	100	-38	68	6

Astros - 12 games off. Mixed bag, no big off-season improvements

Well, the Astros did nothing right last off-season, but fortunately, their aging starting rotation had the decency to go belly up on them early enough to bring along the likes of Roy Oswalt. Once that happened, the Astros took off like a rocket, only to flame out at the end of the season when Oswalt lost a wing. Next year promises to be a crapshoot with a new manager and who knows how many pieces coming back ready to play.

Cardinals - 5 games off. Could easily fall back to mid-80s in wins. Lackluster off-season

I expected them to fall off, as they did nothing to really improve. Only a late season surge pushed them past my prediction. Oh, maybe that Pujols character had something to do with it.

Cubs - 13 games off. Improved from horrible 2000

Well, it was a foregone conclusion they would do better, but who could foresee a major resurgence of a patchwork pitching staff? The weak offense, Sosa aside, was easy to see, though. Too bad the big Cubs push fell short at the end, though. Next year is no guarantee of further development, though.

Brewers - 4 games off. Small new park boost expected, but not much.

Under 70 wins in a brand new park. Yechh. Don’t expect anything different next year.

Reds - 20 games off. Similar to previous year expected. Thin pitching, though.

Here's what happens when thin pitching gets stretched too far. Awful starting pitching in 2000 was masked by a heroic bullpen, and it's tough to do that two years in a row. Throw in the Griffey hamstring and you have the makings of a really bad off year. Will they get better next year? How can they not? But probably not by much.

Pirates - 6 games off. Futile year expected

And there you go. I think I'll use that comment for next year, too. And another new park. Between them, the Pirates and Brewers managed ony 14 more wins than Seattle. Nuff said.

Note-I predicted the wild card would not come from this division, but also that any teams making the playoffs would get bounced quickly if they did. I'll score that even.

NL West

Team	W	L	W-L	Est W	(W-Est W)
Arizona	92	70	22	85	7
San Francisco	90	72	18	92	2
Los Angeles	86	76	10	80	6
San Diego	79	83	-4	73	6
Colorado	73	89	-16	93	20

Arizona - 7 games off. Don't see them improving

What happened was that Curt Schilling pitched a great season to complement Randy Johnson and Luis Gonzalez stepped it up a notch to MVP class. That was enough to [ush them to the top of a very competitive division.

Giants - 2 games off. Second place finish, less than 97 wins from last year

Pretty good prediction, but I got the team ahead of them wrong. Nobody saw the Bonds season coming, of course, but apart from that the Giants were remarkably unspecial. In many ways those record breaking solo seasons seem to have a way of taking the focus off the team goal. Not Bonds' fault, but there you go. I expect Bonds will stay and things will return to relative normal, meaning the Giants will win about 90 games again and finish out of the playoffs.

Dodgers - 6 games off. Mixed bag, mediocre year

Pretty much right on the money. They stayed in contention, but never quite had the wherewithal to make a push. Nothing suggest to me that things will change in 2002.

Padres - 6 games off. Cellar, and with Gwynn MIA much of the year

Wrong about the cellar, right about Gwynn. Shame they gave up Woody Williams, but without the gimpy Gwynn to worry about, this team might be able to make a little push next year. Maybe challenge for second place.

Rockies - 20 games off. Improve dramatically, formidable pitching staff

Well, it looked good for a month or two, but then Mike Hampon turned into a pumpkin just like the rest. 31 homers and over 300 baserunners in 203 innings isn't good, even in Coors. The sheer relentlessness of offense seems to wear down even the most mentally resilient of pitchers. Oh well, maybe some day someone will figure out what works in Coors. Meanwhile, I'm just going to assume that the Rockies won't be winning the NL West next year.

So that was the NL, 2001 style. Most of my expectations for next year are built around who I expect to be active in the free agent market or making astute trades (not so fast, Mr. Bonifay!) I guess we'll have to wait and see how things shake out to even see whether there will be a 2002 season...

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Worried about next season already? Contraction Lawsuit Blues got you down? Tell Bud Selig, sorry, we mean Dave Paisley all about it at drdjp@strikethree.com because, "He's listening."