Free Agent Capsules

Jason Michael Barker

With free agency (hopefully) right around the corner, here's a look at some of the bigger names who might change teams this winter. This year's FA class is a hitting class, with the likes of Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi, while the pitching crop is a bit thinner.

One name you won't see on this list is Mark McGwire, who announced Sunday that he'd be hanging up his spikes. I for one am sad to see him go, but I can't think of a more honorable thing for him to do than walking away when he feels he cannot compete at the level he wants to. It would have been very easy for him to sign that $30M extension and simply take the money in exchange for playing 50 games and hitting .200, but McGwire respects the game too much to do that.

His career numbers are staggering, particularly when you consider how much time he missed throughout his career. He only managed 150 or more games seven times in his 16 year career, but in only one of those seasons did he fail to top 30 homers. He averaged 50 homers per 162 games, the best mark in baseball history, and his 583 homers are good for fifth all time, behind guys named Aaron, Ruth, Mays and Robinson.

Bravo, Big Mac. You'll be missed.

On to the free agents.

Moises Alou
Barry Bonds-lite? When healthy, Alou is one of the better hitters in the game. He hits for average, power, draws some walks and rarely strikes out. Of course, he played only 136 games last season, 126 the year before, and missed the entire 1999 season before that. A team needing one more bat to push them over the top could benefit greatly from signing Alou to a two-year deal with an option for a third, if he'll go for such a contract. If he's smart, he'll sign with an American League team so he can save some wear and tear on his body by DH-ing 20 or 30 times a year.

Barry Bonds
His track record entering last season was most impressive, and then he kicked it up a notch, er, 73 notches, and put together one of the top two or three offensive seasons of all time. The obvious downside with Bonds is his age -- he turned 37 last July, and though he keeps himself in great shape, a guy can't go on like this forever... can he? I certainly wouldn't want him for any more than three years, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he hit 50 homers each of the next three seasons, either.

Bret Boone
If there's a landmine waiting to happen in this year's free agent class, it's Boone. Sure you can sign him to the four year deal at $10M a year, but what will you get? The Boone who hit .331/.372/.578 last year, or the one who averaged .256/.319/.432 over the three seasons prior? As you can tell, that's quite a difference. Normally such a surge accompanies increased plate discipline, such as with Jim Edmonds two years ago, but not so with Boone, who only walked 40 times in 623 at-bats last year. Boone will be 33 in April; buyer beware.

Johnny Damon
Again, buyer beware. When he's at his very best, Damon is slapping the ball all over the place, getting on base and stealing bases. The problem is that when he's not as his best, his marginal walk rate doesn't keep his OBP where it should be for a guy hitting at the top of the order. It's easy to write off his 2001 as a fluke, but isn't it possible that the real fluke was 1999-2000? He posted OBP's of .379 and .382 those years, when the other five years of his career he was between .313 and .339. Something to think about.

Jason Giambi
With Giambi, you know exactly what you're going to get -- he's been the best hitter in the American League two years running, and if not for a guy named Bonds, that would be in all of baseball, not just the AL. Teams often overpay for slugging 1B/DH types who don't hit enough relative to the position to justify all that cash (Mo Vaughn a few years ago is a great example), but barring injury or a sudden collapse that shouldn't be a problem with Giambi, whose bat is every bit as good as advertised.

Juan Gonzalez
The anti-Boone? Boone has one good year and a career of mediocrity, whereas Gonzalez has a very good career and one year of mediocrity (2000 with the Tigers). The good news is that you pretty much know what you're going to get: a .300 average and around 40 homers. Think a few clubs could use that in the middle of their batter order? Yup. If Gonzalez ever hooks up with a hitting instructor who can get him to be a bit more patient and take a few more walks, he could turn into Sammy Sosa.

Chan Ho Park
Park is considered the top free agent pitcher available this winter, which should tell you a bit about the quality of the pitching crop. It's not that Park isn't a good pitcher, but there are some warning signs. For starters, he walks a ton of batters -- right around 100 each of the past four seasons. Despite pitching half his games in Dodger Stadium, he's also given up an average of 23 homers each of the past four seasons as well. Park is no Randy Johnson or Kevin Brown, but he's likely to be paid as if he is. Unless he dramatically cuts his walks, it just doesn't add up.

Tino Martinez
Some wrote Martinez off for dead after his 2000 season, in which he hit .258 with just 16 homers. He magically rebounded to hit .280 and belt 34 homers last year just in time for free agency. Still, his .329 OBP and .501 SLG just aren't the sort of things great sluggers are made of. Martinez hasn't been a good player since 1997, when he hit .371/.577, and at 34 that isn't likely to change. He'll be a bad signing for a team like the Braves, Red Sox or Mets, who think they need his power and veteran leadership.

Jason Schmidt
Schmidt's going to make a nice consolation prize for the team that misses out on Chan Ho Park. His stuff is every bit as good, but he hasn't had nearly the problems with walks or homers that Park has in his career. He has had problems staying healthy, but if his surgically repaired rotator cuff 100% -- and he posted a 3.06 ERA after the break -- he could be ready to bust out in a big way. He might not be an ace, but he's a very good #2 starter waiting to happen.

Aaron Sele
Sele lost all three of his post-season starts, so there will no doubt be questions about his ability to win the big games. He has won 69 games over the past four years, but his ERA's haven't been anything special, particularly pitching in SafeCo Field the past two years. What's also disturbing is that his strikeout rate has dropped dramatically each of the past two seasons, all the way to less than five per nine innings last year. Whether that's simply a change in his pitching style or an indication that he's losing it remains to be seen.

John Smoltz
Now here's an interesting one... is Smoltz a starter or a reliever? Pulling an Eckersley will certainly reduce the wear on his arm and prolong his career, but is that what he really wants? Smoltz has the luxury of shopping himself around as both a starter and a closer, while interested teams have the luxury of offering him either job depending on what he might want. If he can go a few more years as a starter, he'd be a very nice veteran addition to a young staff. Can you imagine him in, say, Oakland, along with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito? Scary.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is not a free agent, though in another year he'll be arbitration eligible. Offer to buy out his arbitration years with Krispy Kreme's at jmb@strikethree.com.

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