Not So Offensive

Dave Paisley

Come the post-season, offense withers away and dies like the leaves on the trees. Whether it's the offenses tightening up or simply the fact that the better pitchers get the bulk of the innings, something definitely happens that suddenly creates holes in those wooden sticks the batters take to the plate with them.

Take this World Series so far (please!) Apart from the dismantling of Mike Mussina in game 1, the pitching has been uniformly excellent. Curt Schilling - one run. Andy Pettitte - four runs, and he was unlucky to give up that many. Randy Johnson - zero runs in a spectacular effort. Roger Clemens - one run in an excellent outing. Brian Anderson - two runs, and victimized by horrible defense behind, and in the case of Damian Miller, right in front of him.

So the Diamondbacks are up 2-1, with three games yet to be pitched by Johnson and Schilling. While several people are second-guessing Brenly's plan to pitch the two on three days rest, if there are two guys who can get the job done, they are it. With only 100 pitches each in their first World Series appearances this year, they are more than primed to do their usual damage. Never mind the stats that say that starters going on three days rest in the post-season since 1998 have gone 1-9 with a 9-ish ERA. These guys are not like other pitchers. Besides, even if they have an arm fall off, it'll at least be in a good cause.

But back to that offense in the post-season thought. Apart from the very occasional blowout (Cleveland over Seattle in the ALDS, Seattle over New York in the ALCS, Arizona over New York in the WS) offense has been tough to come by. Only a few players have managed to produce at anything close to their regular season level. Here's a look at the Diamondback offense through game 2 of the World Series. The columns are 2001 Playoff OPS, 2001 regular season OPS and the difference between them.

D-Backs	PO OPS	Reg OPS	Diff
Durazo	1.250	.909	.341
Counsell	.765	.721	.044
Finley	.805	.767	.038
Sanders	.791	.886	-.095
Williams	.669	.780	-.111
Womack	.510	.652	-.142
Grace	.699	.852	-.153
Miller	.559	.830	-.271
Gonzalez	.813	1.117	-.304
Team	.645	.783	-.138

Erubiel Durazo's numbers are deceptive because until Tuesday he only had four post-seaon ABs. Nevertheless, he's doing OK. Craig Counsell and Steve Finley are doing OK. After that, every D'back regular is way below their regular season level. That's easy to understand for Luis Gonzalez, the most legitimate power threat in the lineup. He stands to get pitched around a lot, and it's no shock that his OPS is a mere .813 in the post-season, down over 300 points. What's Tony Womack's excuse, though? With a miserable .652 OPS in the regular season, it's hard to believe he could slump all the way to .510 in the post-season. Well, no it isn't, unfortunately, as he sucks pretty badly.

The Yankee lineup looks like this:

Yankees	PO OPS	Reg OPS	Diff
Posada	.942	.838	.104
O'Neill	.822	.789	.033
Justice	.762	.763	-.001
Soriano	.723	.736	-.013
Spencer	.702	.743	-.041
Williams	.864	.917	-.053
Knoblauch	.572	.691	-.119
Martinez	.586	.830	-.244
Jeter	.568	.858	-.290
Brosius	.355	.789	-.434
Team	.664	.769	-.105

It's no shock that Jorge Posada is keeping up, although Paul O'Neill is a bit of a surprise. After that, all the regulars are off at least a little. Tino Martinez, Derek "Anointed One" Jeter and Scott Brosius are all way off, though. Brosius' .355 will no doubt improve after Tuesday's RBI broken bat bloop RBI single, but not a hell of a lot. What a miserable post-season he's had.

Comparing the team totals, they're both off around 100 points of OPS relative to the regular season. And these are the teams that made it to the World Series!

For a look at the other side of the coin, let's compare the pitching. First, the Yankees:

Yankees	PO IP	PO ERA	Reg ERA	Diff
Pettitte	27.2	2.93	3.99	-1.06
Mussina	16.0	2.81	3.15	-.34
Clemens	13.1	3.38	3.51	-.13
Hernandez	10.2	5.06	4.85	.21
Rivera	9.2	.93	2.34	-1.41
Mendoza	9.2	.93	3.75	-2.82
Stanton	7.2	3.52	2.58	.94
Team	106.0	3.23	4.02	-.79

The top three Yankee starters have combined for just over 50% of their teams innings, slightly more if you add in Clemens' seven innings Tuesday night. Not too shabby, although only Pettitte sports a significantly lower ERA than the regular season. Hernandez wasn't terribly effective in the regualr season, and Seattle exposed him in the playoffs, so don't expect much from him Wednesday night. Better have Ramiro Mendoza ready (and, dare we say it, Witasick and Wohlers? Ouch.) Rivera and Mendoza have been unbelievable for the Yankees, but the Yanks need a lead to be able to capitalize. And aren’t we all just waiting for Rivera to implode one of these days? Overall, the Yankee staff has turned in an ERA almost a run below the regular season. Pretty good, but typical for the post-season.

Turning to the Snake camp:

D-Backs	PO IP	PO ERA	Reg ERA	Diff
Schilling	34.0	.79	2.98	-2.19
Johnson	33.0	1.36	2.49	-1.13
Batista	13.2	3.95	3.36	.59
Anderson	7.1	2.45	5.20	-2.75
Kim	6.1	.00	2.94	-2.94
Lopez	6.0	9.00	4.00	5.00
Team	107.0	2.36	3.87	-1.51

Note that over 60% of the Diamondback innings have been pitched by Schilling and Johnson. Is this a post-season strategy or what? If they can keep this up for two more wins, this will possibly be the most dominating and heroic double pitching feat ever in the post-season (and remember they have to win 11 games in three series these days...)

With Anderson's good but unlucky performance Tuesday, four of the top six pitchers used by the snakes will have ERAs more than a full run below the regular season, three more than two runs below. With a team ERA barely above 2.00 it's no wonder they're being successful.

So there you have it - proof positive that good pitching ebats good hitting in the post-season. At least until the good hitting shows up.

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WHOOSH!!! Why not try to KABLAM!!! let Dave Paisley know ZZAAAPPP!!! how annoying you find all those KABLOOEY!!! FOX special effects BZZZTTT!!! that obscure the plain enjoyment of the AAARRRGGGHHH!!! World Series at drdjp@strikethree.com? Oh, and we're not talking about Tim McCarver, although he's pretty damn annoying, too.