World Serious

Dave Paisley

Well, we're finally down to just two teams in the post-season, and maybe we should be grateful that at least one of them is a fresh face.

Quick - how many New Yorkers does it take to screw in a light bulb?

Answer: Only one, but they believe they only have to hold it still and the world will revolve around them.

Yes, the incessant woofing by Yankee fans is starting to grate. Not to mention the unceasing ass-kissing by the mainstream media. A visitor from another planet might be inclined to believe that the events of September 11th occurred only in New York and that nobody from anywhere else in the world was affected. If anything, the Yankee run has both prolonged and intensified the effect. But on to actual baseball...

Looking back it would appear that both the Diamondbacks and Yankees cruised into the World Series 4-1, but in reality there were a couple of pivotal moments in each series that could have tipped the scales. Game 4 of the Yanks-Mariners series was probably the biggest turning point. In a tense 0-0 tie, Bret Boone’s wind-assisted homer in the top of the 8th put the M’s up 1-0 and gave them a chance to tie the series at 2-2. In the bottom of the 8th, up came David Justice. Lou Piniella elected to go with Arthur Rhodes again, despite last year’s failures. This time Rhodes struck out Justice. Maybe he relaxed a little too soon, because on a 3-2 count to Bernie Williams, Rhodes went the macho route and tried to blow him away too. Unfortunately for the M’s, Williams hit it out to tie the game. Teams that go to the World Series don’t let that happen. It was at that moment that we all knew the Mariners wouldn’t rally to win that game and that their World Series hopes were dashed in New York for the second year in a row.

I was thinking that if the ALCS went to six or more games that the AL winner would have a tough time matching up with the D’backs because of the extra rest that Arizona earned by dumping the braves quickly. As it turns out, both teams will be well rested for the start of the World Series, which makes the first couple of games likely to be Schilling-Mussina and Johnson-Clemens, or maybe Johnson-Pettitte depending on the Rocket’s hamstring condition. It certainly seems to be a tall order to ask any team to beat the D’backs in a seven game series where four of those games will be started by Schilling and Johnson. Mussina is the only guy on the Yankees staff that measures up to that quality right now (and no, I don’t think Andy Pettitte is that good…)

The rest of the match-ups aren’t quite so clear, so I thought I’d break it down for you a bit. Here are the starting rotations compared (numbers are from the regular season, head to head ERA differential in the center column):

PITCHERS	W	L	ERA	CG	HR	WHIP	K/BB	ERA diff	PITCHERS	W	L	ERA	CG	HR	WHIP	K/BB
Mussina	17	11	3.15	4	20	1.07	5.10	.17	Schilling	22	6	2.98	6	37	1.08	7.51
Clemens	20	3	3.51	0	19	1.26	2.96	1.02	Johnson	21	6	2.49	3	19	1.01	5.24
Pettitte	15	10	3.99	2	14	1.32	4.00	.63	Batista	11	8	3.36	0	13	1.24	1.50
Hernandez, O.	4	7	4.85	0	19	1.40	1.83	-.35	Anderson	4	9	5.20	1	25	1.40	1.83

Note that the purple indicates a D’backs advantage, blue a Yankee advantage with green being pretty much a wash. I threw in Brian Anderson as the Snakes’ fourth starter because it doesn’t really matter whether it’s him or Lopez, as they can be used in tandem and he’s pitched better In the post-season so far. Plus, it’s not out of the question that Brenly will ask Schilling to pitch games 1, 4 and 7 on three days rest if the Snakes get down 2-1. With Clemens effectiveness in question, there’s no doubt the rotation advantage goes to the Diamondbacks.

On to the bullpens:

PITCHERS	W	L	ERA	SV	IP	WHIP	K/BB	ERA diff	PITCHERS	W	L	ERA	SV	IP	WHIP	K/BB
M. Rivera	4	6	2.34	50	80.2	0.91	6.92	-.60	Kim	5	6	2.94	19	98	1.04	2.57
Mendoza	8	4	3.75	6	100.2	1.12	3.04	-.51	Morgan	1	0	4.26	0	38	1.63	1.41
Stanton	9	4	2.58	0	80.1	1.36	2.69	-1.95	Swindell	2	6	4.53	2	53.2	1.11	5.25
Hitchcock	4	4	6.49	0	51.1	1.66	1.56	2.49	Lopez	4	7	4.00	0	81	1.21	2.88
Witasick	3	0	4.69	0	40.1	1.62	2.94	-.09	Witt	4	1	4.78	0	43.1	1.42	1.24
Wohlers	1	0	4.54	0	35.2	1.45	1.83	.94	Koplove	0	1	3.60	0	10	1.70	1.56

No question the advantage lies with the Yankees. The Snakes’ bullpen is the one possible fatal flaw in their quest for the championship. Kim is a decent closer again, but everyone behind him is a question mark. Schilling and Johnson are capable of taking any game to the ninth inning, though, so the exposure isn’t as serious as it would be on most teams.

Here are the starting players (OPS differential in the center columns, positive numbers an advantage for the Yanks, negative for the D’backs.):

Pos	Player	OPS	G	R	HR	RBI	OPS diff	Player	OPS	G	R	HR	RBI
C	Posada	.838	138	59	22	95	.077	Miller	.761	123	45	13	47
1B	Martinez	.830	154	89	34	113	-.022	Grace	.852	145	66	15	78
2B	Soriano	.736	158	77	18	73	.015	Counsell	.721	141	76	4	38
SS	Jeter	.857	150	110	21	74	.205	Womack	.652	125	66	3	30
3B	Brosius	.789	120	57	13	49	.009	Williams	.780	106	58	16	65
LF	Knoblauch	.690	137	66	9	44	-.427	Gonzalez	1.117	162	128	57	142
CF	Williams, B.	.917	146	102	26	94	.150	Finley	.767	140	66	14	73
RF	O'Neill	.789	137	77	21	70	-.097	Sanders	.886	126	84	33	90

Running down the list, Posada is clearly better than Miller, while Grace-Martinez and Soriano-Counsell are a wash (tough to believe that Yankee fans think that Soriano ought to be ROY with a .736 OPS, 18 HR notwithstanding…) Jeter is a healthy upgrade over Womack, and Brosius-Williams is a wash. However, the corner outfield kills the Yanks. Luis Gonzalez over Knoblauch is enormous, and Sanders over O’Neill is substantial. The Yanks do, however, get a fair amount back from Bernie’s advantage over Steve Finley. Overall, the offenses are about even, but the Yanks are better balanced.

Finally, the benches:

Player	OPS	G	R	HR	RBI	OPS diff	Player	OPS	G	R	HR	RBI
Justice	.763	111	58	18	51	-.146	Durazo	.909	92	34	12	38
Spencer	.743	80	40	10	46	-.085	Dellucci	.828	115	28	10	40
Bellinger	.590	51	12	5	12	-.278	Colbrunn	.868	59	12	4	18
Sojo	.404	39	5	0	9	-.379	Bautista	.783	100	26	5	26
Wilson	.626	48	10	1	12	-.010	Cummings	.636	20	0	0	1
Velarde	.780	93	50	9	32	.031	Bell	.749	129	59	13	46
Greene	.521	35	9	1	11	.056	Barajas	.465	51	9	3	9

One factor that usually hurts NL teams in the AL parks is the lack of a decent DH option. After all, if a guy was really that good, he’d be playing every day somewhere. In this case, the D’backs have Erubiel Durazo, where he can flip-flop DH and 1B with Mark Grace. Either way, and even off limited action, he looks like a better bet than a declining David Justice. Meanwhile, the Snakes have a lot more hard hitting options off the bench than the Yankees do.

So overall, the rotation goes to the D’backs, the bullpen to the Yanks, the starting offense about even, and the bench to the D’backs.

Putting all that together, I’d say D’backs in six games.

about the author

So much for those NYY-Sea Game 6 tickets. Never mind, Dave Paisley still has a TV for the World Series, although that Fox broadcast bunch won't improve any. Why not send him hints about where the volume control might be at drdjp@strikethree.com?