Champs Ahoy!

Dave Paisley

Wow, what a grueling Division Series weekend that was. Apart from the Braves and hapless Astros, of course.

It was interesting to note that the three series that went to five games were won on home soil, so home field advantage worked out at least for deciding games. Atlanta also clinched on home soil, so no fans have seen their team eliminated in person so far this year. As for home field advantage, the Braves series went 1-2 to the home team, the D-Backs-Cards series was 3-2, as was the Mariners-Indians. The Yankees-Oakland series was an amazing 1-4 for the home teams, with all of the first four games won by the visitors. So overall, home teams were a mediocre 8-10. Hardly worth the bother, really.

Looking ahead, we already know the D-Backs are one up on the Braves, with Randy Johnson finally breaking his post-season bad luck streak with a masterful 3 hit shutout. Which means that the Braves now have to win 4 of 6, with three of those games against Johnson or Schilling. Let's say they manage to get one of those three, then they need to sweep the other three games against, presumably, Miguel Batista twice and Albie Lopez once. With an offense that consists of Chipper Jones, Brian Jordan and a bucket of spit, I don't see that happening. I see the D-Backs in six games.

Moving on to the AL if the Yankees manage to move on to the World Series again, we are faced with the serious possibility that Joe Torre will be knighted by the Queen of England and sanctified by the Pope. So in order to avoid that, the Seattle Mariners are going to have to focus on the Yankees a bit better than they managed against the Indians. So how do they stack up?

Rotations: Pettitte, Mussina, Hernandez and an ailing Roger Clemens against Aaron Sele, Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer and Paul Abbott (backed up by John Halama and Joel Pineiro). That's actually pretty even, as Pettitte/Sele is about a wash, Mussina/Garcia is also very close. Jamie Moyer has been masterful of late, so I'd give him an edge over El Duque. If Clemens can heal by game four, the Yanks will have the edge in fourth starters, especially with experience, but if he remains hobbled and ineffective it would be a huge problem.

Bullpens: With Nelson/Rhodes/Sasaki, Seattle has more depth than Witasick/Stanton/Rivera, but Rivera is still the best single pitcher of the bunch. Middle relief is pretty good on both sides, so overall I'd give a slight edge to Seattle.

Batting: Around the diamond, the Yanks have a huge edge at catcher with Posada miles ahead of Dan Wilson, while the Mariners a slight edge at first, with a slumping John Olerud still better than Tino Martinez. If Bret Boone can figure out which end of the bat to pick up in this series and return to mid-season form, the M's have a decent edge at second over Soriano. Short is a big edge for the Yanks with demi-God Derek Jeter way better than Mark McLemore or whoever. In fact, Jeter may be just a week or two behind Torre for that Sainthood. Third is a wash, with David Bell and Scott Brosius both journeymen, although it appears that Bell will field better.

Left field is probably a wash, too, as Knoblauch's defensive liabilities cancel out any slight offensive margin he'd have over Stan Javier - probably Seattle's primary LF weapon. Center is just about a wash with not much to choose between Mike Cameron and Bernie Williams. Right field is tough to call, but Ichiro is bringing more to the table right now than Justice or O'Neill.

At DH, Edgar Martinez handily out-points whichever of Justice and O'Neill gets the job.

So after all that it looks pretty even. Bret Boone and John Olerud will likely be the keys for Seattle on offense. Get one or both of those hot again and it would be the difference.

As for a prediction? This one is going to be tight, and I can easily see it going to seven games. Of course I'd like to see the Mariners win, but when its this close, it could all come down to one big hit, one magnificent pitching performance or one great fielding play or one botched relay throw. Both of these teams are capable of any and all of those things. Let's say Mariners in seven, just because.

about the author

It's amazing how popular Dave Paisley found himself when people discovered he has playoff tickets. If you're interested in getting in line, why not drop him a line at drdjp@strikethree.com?