Plentiful Playoff Prognostication

Jason Michael Barker

If you're like me, you've been ready for the post season for, oh, going on two months now. The qualifier there is that I live in Seattle where the hometown nine advancing to the second season has been pretty much a foregone conclusion since May, and as such the last month has been painfully slow.

Thankfully, we've finally arrived. Monday's off-day served as a great chance for fans of the Mariners, Athletics, Yankees, Indians, Diamondbacks, Astros, Cardinals and Braves to get all worked up over first round series that'll be over in a week's time. Consider that! After 162 games, it'll all be over for four of our contestants a week from now.

Questions abound for each club. Grizzled playoff teams like New York, Atlanta and Cleveland have to wonder if this is their last shot at winning it all, or if perhaps success has already passed them by. Seattle has the added pressure of entering the post-season knowing that if they don't win the World Series, their 116-win season will be forgotten. Then there are clubs like Oakland, Houston and Arizona who have been close in recent years but have yet to really break through. And maybe St. Louis can, uh, win one for that McGwire character.

On to the predictions·

St. Louis vs. Arizona
So, are you going to pick against Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in a short series? It's certainly a tough thing to do, even though the Diamondbacks are perhaps my least favorite team in the majors for batting Tony Womack at the top of the batting order. It's really just a matter of principle.

In all honesty, this really is a closely matched series. Arizona scored 819 runs and allowed 677 this season, while St. Louis scored 814 and allowed 684. If Mark McGwire does anything at all, it could be the difference for the Cardinals, though there are rumblings that Big Mac might not even start the first game. I think that's potentially a bad move -- Schilling has allowed 37 homers this year, and the long ball just might be the Cardinals best chance of scoring against him. McGwire crushed 29 homers this year in 299 at-bats and is still one of the most feared hitters in the game.

Barring any changes in their rotation, the Diamondbacks will get three starts from their big two -- two for Schilling and one for Johnson. Even so, they'll still need a good start from either Miguel Batista or Albie Lopez. Batista has been better than you might have thought, holding opposing hitters to .226/.320/.349 in 139.1 innings.

This is by far the series I had the hardest time picking, but I'm going with St. Louis in five. There's something about Schilling that tells me he's going to get shelled once in this series, and even a stellar performance by Johnson won't be able to save him.

Atlanta vs. Houston
The Braves find themselves in a similar situation to that of the Yankees last season -- an aging club with a struggling offense that seems to have been the favorite in their league since the beginning of time. This is the year Ted Turner's luck runs out, because that struggling offense is just too much for even a great pitching staff to overcome. The only hitter of consequence is Chipper Jones, and while he's a very good player, he can't carry the club long enough to win a five game series.

The Astros, with Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell and the newest Killer B, Lance Berkman, not to mention Moises Alou and Richard Hidalgo, should have no problems scoring runs. Even Vinny Castilla has been productive for Houston this year, and that's no small miracle. Sure their pitching staff is young and lacks post-season experience, but assuming Roy Oswalt is healthy, the trio of Wade Miller, Shane Reynolds and Oswalt should be more than enough to shut down Atlanta's weak offensive attack.

Houston in four, behind a strong outing from Oswalt in the deciding game. If he can get them six innings, Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner will shut the door.

Cleveland vs. Seattle
This series features a couple of very intriguing pitching match-ups, beginning with young right-handers Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in Tuesday's Game One. That's followed by a pair of crafty left-handers, Chuck Finley and Jamie Moyer, in Game Two. Seattle's offense is such that their bats tend to go silent once over a four- or five-game stretch, and as such I don't think a sweep is in order, particularly given Cleveland's ability to score runs.

One thing to watch, particularly in the first two games, is who can get out to an early lead. Safeco Field is already a strong pitcher's park, but in afternoon games such as these it becomes even more difficult for the hitter as the shadows move across the field late in the game. It really does make sense to play for a few single runs early to get ahead, and then hope your bullpen will be able to hold on.

Seattle in four, though it wouldn't surprise me to see this one go the full five games. It's foolish to overlook the Indians, who scored the second-most runs of any team in baseball this year and have three starters -- Colon, Finley and C.C. Sabathia -- capable of shutting the other team down.

Oakland vs. New York
Without question, this is the post-season's marquee match-up in round one. Jason Giambi, the best hitter in the league two years running, leads a group of players who have taken on his free-wheeling, devil may care, beer league softball attitude, and they appear to be the better for it. The A's also feature a very good young trio of starters -- Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder -- and an underrated fourth starter in Corey Lidle.

Then you have the Yankees, who despite getting a little bit older and a little bit worse every year have nonetheless "found a way to win" when it counts. I'm not one who buys into the mystique or the notion that the Yankees somehow "know how to win," but hey, somebody still has to beat them.

Alas, it will be the A's this year, and the series should be both hard-fought and entertaining. Oakland simply has too much firepower on offense and slightly superior pitching, and they're also healthy, while the Yankees have several key players on the mend or simply on the downside of their careers. New York will be younger and better next season, but for this year they're old and out. Oakland in five, though it also wouldn't surprise me to see the A's sweep, the way they've been playing lately.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker reminds you that these predictions are for fun only and should not be used for any sort of wagering. Please don't complain to jmb@strikethree.com if you lose your girlfriend's engagement ring betting on the A's -- that's just silly.

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