Prospect Report:
Colorado Vortex

David Cameron

A slightly different prospect report today, as we focus on a specific organization that has made a good amount of news with their farm system recently, and a look at their organizational philosophy as a whole.

Most organizations have a philosophy and a pattern for how they acquire and develop players. The Oakland Athletics get big, slow, non-athletes who can hit the ball. The Kansas City Royals get small, quick, defensive wizards who couldn't hit Danny Almonte even if he was twelve years old. The Pittsburgh Pirates get the worst players they can find and give them multi-year, multi-million-dollar contracts. Not all philosophies are good -- witness the Pirates' "success" lately -- but it's better to have a strategy than no strategy at all.

By looking at talent acquisition, you can normally figure out the philosophy of the organization. Then there are the Colorado Rockies.

This is one organization I simply cannot figure out. Since the arrival of Dan O'Dowd and Buddy Bell, the Blake Street Bombers have been overhauled. They wisely dumped overpaid, overrated "sluggers" like Mike Lansing, Dante Bichette, and Vinny Castilla. O'Dowd realized the amazing effects Coors Field had on his teams and set out on a path to field a team that could succeed in a park that equates to playing tee-ball in a tornado.

So, O'Dowd comes in and says a lot of intelligent things. He regards on-base percentage highly, understands that Coors Field inflates offensive stats, and recognizes a need for some extraordinary defensive outfielders to help the pitchers survive the thin air. I was optimistic that the Rockies had found the man for the job.

The problem is, I can't figure out what Dan O'Dowd has been doing for the past two years. He's set major-league records for roster turnover, eliminating almost every remnant of the 1999 team. Some of his moves lead me to think he's a genius, while others leave me scratching my head wondering if he sought advice from the 1-900-CAM-BONIFAY hotline. For example:

He engineered a great three-way deal in which he dumped Vinny Castilla's contract on Tampa Bay and ended up with a vastly underrated third baseman in Jeff Cirillo. He gave up essentially nothing in this trade, got rid of a gigantic contract attached to a bad player, and got a near all-star-caliber player entering the prime of his career. What a great move.

However, that same offseason, O'Dowd signed Tom Goodwin, one of the worst everyday players in baseball, to an insane three-year contract that paid him over ten million dollars. Never mind that Tom Goodwin was a completely awful player, the Rockies already had their own Tom Goodwin in youngster Juan Pierre, who is essentially the exact same player as Goodwin but with more patience and could play for the major-league minimum for three years. The Goodwin signing made no sense at all.

He added to that by bringing in Brian Hunter, another no-walk, no-hit, all-run guy who is nearly worthless as anything more than a pinch runner. By having both Goodwin and Hunter on the roster, O'Dowd squeezed Pierre out of a job and made sure his offense would be pitiful at the same time. Not good, Dan.

Three months later, he somehow tricks the Dodgers into not only taking Tom Goodwin off his hands, but also giving up somewhat useful outfielder Todd Hollandsworth and a decent pitching prospect in Randy Dorame in exchange. Then, he sends Brian Hunter to Cincinnati for another young arm in Robert Averette. It's not like Dorame, Averette, and Hollandsworth are guys you build your franchise around, but they all have some potential and cost nearly nothing. To be able to cast off two horrible players in exchange for value is amazing.

O'Dowd makes a solid pickup in giving up nothing for Todd Walker, former Twins phenom who washed out after Tom Kelly decided he wasn't old enough to play in Minnesota. Walker, while not a great player, is a useful backup infielder who won't kill you as a starter and put up deceivingly good numbers in his two months in Colorado, thanks to his new home ballpark. Then O'Dowd, forgetting park effects, thinks Walker is his second baseman of the future and signs him to a multi-year contract for no particular reason, overpaying for what was a good value player, making him an expensive somewhat-useful player.

A year later, he turned Todd Walker into Alex Ochoa, another marginally useful cheap player. He made a good move in getting Walker, a bad move in paying him a lot of money, and a good move in dumping the contract when he remembered that Walker wasn't really much of a hitter away from the confines of Coors Field.

Over the past offseason, O'Dowd committed nearly $300 million to Todd Helton, Mike Hampton, and Denny Neagle. Helton and Hampton are legitimate all-stars, but both probably received too much money. The Neagle signing was just poor and will hurt them for the next four years, or until O'Dowd convinces some other lunatic to take a high-priced mediocre veteran off his hands.

By committing so much money to those three players, he found out he couldn't afford Pedro Astacio, who is actually a good starter. He paid Neagle more money than Astacio to take his spot and be worse. Not good.

Of course, in typical "huh?" fashion, he turns around, trades Astacio to Houston for former ace-in-the-making Scott Elarton and one of the best catching prospects in baseball, Garrett Gentry. If Elarton can recover from surgery, he could still be a quality starter, and Gentry should love Coors Field for years to come.

Of course, Gentry's acquisition only occurred because O'Dowd doesn't realize that he already has an all-star catcher in Ben Petrick, who has never been given a chance to hit like the all-star he could be and is now going to be shipped off for nothing to some team who realizes how good he is. Good pickup necessitated by terrible decision-making.

O'Dowd made a big splash at the trading deadline, dealing horrible and soon-to-be-wealthy Neifi Perez to Kansas City in a three-way-trade and getting the cheap, young, and useful Jose Ortiz and the potential-laden Mario Encarnacion. A very good trade for Colorado, but not one that fits into any kind of long-term plan that could have been in place at the beginning of the season.

To top it all off, the Rockies' farm system has essentially one major-league hitter on the way in Garrett Atkins. He was a third baseman, but defensive concerns caused the Rockies to shift him to first base. Apparently, O'Dowd realized today that with Todd Helton signed for ten more years, Atkins won't help the club as a first baseman, so they are going to shift him back to third. Good move, necessitated by a poor move in the first place.

I ranked the Rockies farm system as one of the poorest in baseball in a recent Prospect Ten, and my thoughts on that front haven't changed. With few impact prospects on the way, one would suspect that the last-place Rockies were in for a tough few years. However, Dan O'Dowd has been so unpredictable, he'll probably deal Gabe White to Texas for Alex Rodriguez and win the World Series next year.

David Cameron would like to thank Tom Goodwin, Brian Hunter and Neifi Perez for making his Hacking Mass team a rousing success in 2001, but hopes that in the future Jeromy Burnitz would refrain from making quite so much contact. Offer to swap him for Chad Curtis at dac@strikethree.com.