Prospect Report:
Rich Man, Poor Man

David Cameron

Now that the minor league season is wrapping up, the Prospect Ten will be switching formats, so check it out every Monday for a new Top Ten list throughout the offseason. This Monday, I'll list my top ten breakout prospects -- guys who moved up the ladder this season more than anyone else.

If you want proof of disparity in intelligence, look no further than the AL East. The Yankees' farm system has been one of the best in baseball, helping lead them to one of the best five-year runs in baseball history. The people in charge are smart and they have good scouts. The Orioles spend nearly as much money, but do so on things like clutch hitting, clubhouse leadership, and veteran presence. They suck, and will continue to do so until their organization gets a clue.

New York Yankees

Odds are you've heard of Nick Johnson and Drew Henson, so I'll save the words for some younger guys who will be leading the charge in New York in a few years. Juan Rivera is slugging .600 in AAA, which has drawn him a lot of press. His on-base percentage is woeful, however, due to his swing-with-eyes-closed approach to hitting. Think Glenallen Hill and you won't be disappointed.

While a not-so-young little leaguer is leading the Almonte press in New York, the Yankees have a shortstop who could be getting his own headlines soon. Erick Almonte put up a solid season in AAA, hitting .286 with good patience and above-average power for a shortstop. At 23, he could probably be an answer to the second-base dilemma if Alfonso Soriano switches positions again.

In a rare case where I'm going with the scouts and not the stats, I believe Deivi Mendez will be a special major-league player despite a horrible 2001 season. He struggled in A-ball, returned to short-season ball and struggled again. He's just 18 and has all kinds of physical tools, so I'll ignore his .290 on-base percentage and tell you to keep an eye on this kid.

Brandon Claussen has made big strides this year and moved into the upper echelon of prospects who are referred to as southpaws. His 2.13 ERA in AA at age 22 is impressive enough, but his K/IP ratio jumps off the page. He's been outstanding and has moved into that Eric Milton mold. Expect him to get a long look in Spring Training next year. Teammate Alex Graman is often mentioned with Claussen, but shouldn't be. He's a middle-of-the-rotation starter who is a year older and was outperformed at the same level. He's a nice pitcher to have, but doesn't have the star upside that Claussen does.

Randy Keisler was a disappointment in the Bronx but still has the talent to be an impact major-league starter. Left-handers with his control and movement will get shots until they eventually succeed, so Keisler will make it.

Toronto Blue Jays

There is a serious shortage of catchers who can hit the ball in the major leagues, but certainly not in this organization. Joe Lawrence has consistently shown the ability to get on base at a .400 clip and has decent power, despite his struggles in AAA this year. His defense needs refining and he may be moved if Josh Phelps or Jayson Werth continue to develop.

Phelps has raw power but not the patience that Lawrence and Werth have, while Werth is more of the all-around player who doesn't excel at anything. Odds are two of these will make it, so out of bias to people who walk, I'll say Lawrence and Werth will be big-leaguers and Phelps will fail.

The Jays arms aren't so deep, led by Pasqual Coco, a hard thrower with a fastball so live that he doesn't know where its going. He's walked 50 compared to 82 strikeouts this year and needs to refine his delivery in order to throw more strikes.

Brandon Lyon made an impression in his ML Debut and has been impressive in his two years in the minors. He has a good curveball to go with excellent control. He's still a bit raw but is only 22, so he's still got plenty of time. Mike Smith has pitched well in Tennessee, but I'm concerned by his low K/IP ratio. Lets see how he does at higher levels.

Baltimore Orioles

Keith Reed is your prototypical five-tool player that excites scouts and makes me skeptical. He's very raw still at 22, and has struggled this year. He doesn't walk and hasn't shown much power or the ability to make good contact. He's an athlete, so he'll keep getting chances, but I'm expecting a Ruben Rivera-like career.

The Orioles have a pair of shortstops with the last name Rogers, as Ed and Omar share the same parents. Baseball-wise, that's the end of the comparison. Ed gets a lot of hype but has shown no patience and been overmatched at two levels this year. He's 19 and has some tools, so don't write him off, but Omar actually produced in rookie ball this year, showing good patience, good contact skills, and hitting for a little power. If I had to bet on a Rogers, I'm going with Omar.

The O's have a pair of left-handers in Richard Stahl and Beau Hale who were supposed to be the future of the rotation. Stahl has pitched well but battled injury problems, and the O's were smart to shut him down at every twinge of pain. If he can stay healthy, his 6'7" frame and 95 MPH fastball will make the big leagues. Hale has struggled in his first full pro season, mainly due to a big loss in velocity. He's been in the 88-90 range rather than the 95 range that he was in college. That normally means injury, so stay tuned.

John Stephens is trying to repeat Bob Tewksbury's career by getting hitters out while throwing in the low 80's. He has a tremendous curveball and fantastic control, but there will always be questions until he consistently fools major leaguers with soft stuff.

Boston Red Sox

Tony Blanco should help remind us not to get too excited about rookie-ball sluggers who don't walk. After a huge year last season, he struggled when adjusting to breaking balls. He started coming on in the past month before getting hurt and having shoulder surgery. He has real power and is still very young, so he could definitely grow into a more patient hitter.

Steve Lomasney has seen his stock fall further than almost any other prospect in baseball. He's had a second consecutive disappointing season, and recently took a line drive off his eye. He's a longshot to have a big-league future now.

Speaking of disappointments, Dernell Stenson has fallen apart in his third season at AAA. He was pretty consistently mediocre the last two years at 21 and 22, so he probably is just frustrated that he can't get a shot at the majors. He has talent and needs a change of scenery, but his position will probably be DH in the majors.

Brad Baker was hailed as the top arm in the Sox' system, but he's been very disappointing this year. His K/IP is way down, his walks are up, and his ERA is near 5. He's just 20, but he needs to rebound next year to get back on track. Seung Song is definitely on track, establishing himself as one of the best arms in the lower minors. He blew away a couple of levels this year, showing great K/IP rates and good control. He just needs experience.

Mauricio Lara has had mixed results this year. His overall numbers are good, but scouts question his focus and composure and are unsure of his ability to get out high-level hitters. Chalk him up as a question mark.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Its been a disaster in Tampa Bay from the major leagues on down. Start with franchise player Josh Hamilton, who was tabbed as the best prospect in the land before the season started. He's lost all ability to hit the ball, gotten injured, come back, gotten hurt again, and eventually got shut down and hopes to just throw this year away. He has great physical tools, but he doesn't walk and hasn't shown the great power potential we heard he had. He'll be a major leaguer, but its up to him whether he's Sammy Sosa pre-97 or post-97.

Carl Crawford has been compared to Kenny Lofton because he's fast, but Lofton was dangerous due to his .400 OBP. Tampa pushed Crawford to AA for no good reason and he's struggled for it. He needs to become more of a patient hitter, selective at the plate, and use his speed to his advantage. He's in a system that preaches aggressiveness, so I'm not betting on him.

Rocco Baldelli is looking like a disaster as the sixth pick in the 2000 draft. An athlete first, he can't hit and probably never will. Tampa needs to focus on players with skills, not tools.

Bonus babies Matt White and Bobby Seay have both been abysmal this year. You never like to write off arms who throw in the mid 90s, because both could turn it on at anytime, but it's a huge gamble to think that either of them will be big-league pitchers.

There is a bright spot, as Seth McClung has thrown his 98 MPH fastball by low-A hitters consistently. He's shown good control with a 3:1 K:BB ratio and just needs more seasoning. He can claim to be the only Tampa prospect who had anything resembling a good year, though.

about the author

David Cameron never got over Pepsi's decision not to market Pepsi A.M. north of the Mason-Dixon. However, this means that local RC Edge reps can line up an endorsement deal at dac@strikethree.com.