Prospect Report:
Uncentered

David Cameron

Ahh, the storied grounds of the National League Central, home of Wrigley Field, Mark McGwire, and the long, storied tradition of winning in Houston. Okay, but they do have Wrigley and the greatest slugger since that Bambino guy. They also are home to the best collection of young arms you'll find in any division -- by far. As Don Baylor is showing in his "handling"-or should that be manhandling-of Kerry Wood, many of these fine young talents will get to know the name James Andrews very well in the next few years.

At least Detroit and San Diego know what they are doing, both shutting down their premium arms at the first sign of soreness and not just shoving needles in peoples' elbows and telling them to pitch like a man. Okay, off the soapbox and on to the prospects.

Houston Astros

The Astros have a crowded outfield already, but people are starting to notice Jason Lane, a slugging outfielder who is putting up big numbers in AA. However, he is 24 and doesn't have the bat speed of most pure sluggers. He will be a major leaguer, just not a really good one.

Adam Everett has been a disappointment since coming over in the trade for the inmate known as Carl Everett, but he is genuinely a great defensive shortstop. He walks a bit and has some power, so if he can improve his contact hitting he could be a valuable player.

John Buck and Garrett Gentry are pushing each other for the catcher of the future label. Gentry plays at a higher level but Buck excites the scouts more. Odds are both will be major-league hitters, but AA will probably tell us who Houston sticks with.

Houston has an embarrassment of arms on the road to Enron. Tim Redding is back dominating AAA hitters after a short stay in the big show. His fastball is what projects him as an ace -- his curveball will get him there. Carlos Hernandez was just promoted from AA to try to bolster the Astros' pen, but shone in a emergency start in his major-league debut, striking out seven in seven shutout innings. He may be in Houston to stay. He is a changeup away from being an all-star.

Mike Naninni is putting together a solid year in A-ball and is only a year behind Hernandez on the chart. He doesn't have the stuff of either Hernandez or Redding, but he mixes speeds and gets people out.

One quick note on why the Astros have so many good young arms: they are the only organization that doesn't factor height into their scouting reports. They pick up guys like Oswalt and Wagner because other teams write them off as being too short. This lunacy will eventually stop, thanks in large part to Gerry Hunsicker reaping the benefits of others' stupidity.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs probably have the best farm system in baseball, talent-wise. They are led offensively by Corey Patterson, who was billed as the next great Cub and the number one prospect in baseball by several publications. They ignored his free-swinging ways and he has hacked himself into a horrible year at AAA, casting doubts on his future. However, he's still just 21 and has plenty of skills, so he should still make himself into a fine player, but maybe not the superstar everyone wanted him to be.

Hee Seop Choi was the reason the Cubs let Mark Grace go, but he has stalled a bit in AAA. After showing great patience and power at AA, everyone was ready to hand him the job. He just needs more time, but I like him more than I do Patterson.

David Kelton has gotten a lot of hype due to nice power numbers in the lower minors, but he's a bigger hack than Patterson. His refusal to lay off bad pitches will cost him against better pitchers.

Speaking of better pitchers, the Cubs just signed Mark Prior to a record contract for a draft pick. He's the best college pitcher of all time, and really is as good as the hype. Control, power, poise, intelligence, and health. Prior is better than half of the pitchers currently in the majors right now and has all kinds of room to grow. If Baylor keeps his arm intact, he'll win several Cy Young awards. He has better stuff than Kerry Wood, and that is saying something.

Juan Cruz struck out eight in his major-league debut on Tuesday. He throws in the upper 90s and has a good slider, but he needs to work on his changeup if he wants to be a top-level starter. Give him a year and he'll be a good major-league pitcher.

With Ben Christiensen, Mike Meyers, Carlos Zambrano, Roberto Miniel, and Scott Chiasson, the Cubs have enough talent to develop at least two solid mid- to back-end rotation guys to fill in behind Wood, Prior, and Cruz.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Jim Bowden does a good job of acquiring prospects to load up the farm system, but he has this odd fascination with hacking, toolsy center-fielders. Austin Kearns is not one of these, however, as he's a patient corner outfielder with good power who plays good defense. Ignore his struggles in AA. He'll be joining Adam Dunn in flanking that Griffey guy in the Reds' outfield in 2003.

However, that leaves the Reds with no room for Wily Mo Pena, Jackson Melian, or Ruben Mateo, all who were acquired in the past year-and-a-half and all who play outfield. This doesn't even count the presence of Dmitri Young or Ruben Rivera on the major league roster. What a mess.

Ty Howington has been a revelation amongst the Reds' weak crop of pitching prospects, emerging from near-bust status -- and I don't mean Hall of Fame -- to harnessing his control and putting together a fine season. He's one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in the game, but he still needs to throw more strikes.

Bowden stole Ricardo Aramboles from New York in the Mark Wohlers "deal." He has a mid-90s fastball and a good breaking ball. He reached AAA with New York at age 20, so you know he's moving quickly. Dustin Moseley isn't dominating Midwest League hitters, but he's young and in his first professional season after signing late out of high school last year. He's got a good mix of pitches and has the potential to be a solid number two or three starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Getting rid of Cam Bonifay was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully new GM Dave Littlefield will focus on patience and talent rather than speed and leadership. J.R. House stuck around despite a chance to be the QB at West Virginia. He was likely promised that Jason Kendall wouldn't keep him from the everyday catching job when he's ready. He has power to burn, a good eye, and a strong arm, and could turn into one of the best catchers in the NL.

Chad Hermansen is the classic case of an organization ruining a talent. He's been jerked from position to position, rushed to the majors, demoted, sulked, and eventually just washed out. He could still pull a Phil Nevin and have a late resurgence, but this once promising power-hitting infielder is now just a horrible AAA hitter.

The Pirate fascination with JJ Davis is wearing off. He's a physical specimen but that doesn't translate to good hitter. He doesn't walk, strikes out a ton, hits for a low average, and generally just has no clue at the plate. He has power, so who knows, but I'm not optimistic.

The Pirates lost top prospect Bobby Bradley to elbow surgery earlier this year. He was the bright spot in a bad system. Now he's a faint glimmer of hope in a horrible system. Sean Burnett came from Bobby Bradley's high school, but hopefully his arm has endured less. He throws softer and tosses in more good offspeed stuff, but he gets hitters out. You hear the Tom Glavine comparison with every soft-tossing lefty, but Burnett has that kind of potential.

Justin Reid blew away the lower minors after going through college, so he was at least on the right path. He has succeeded in AA with great control -- 12 walks so far -- but his low K/IP rate scares me for his future success. He's one to watch, but not to count on.

Milwaukee Brewers

Cristian Guerrero, cousin of Vladimir Guerrero, often gets compared to his slugging relative. He has struggled at times in the low minors despite being a physically imposing figure. The best quote I've seen offered up about Cris: "Don't forget, he's also Wilton Guerrero's cousin."

David Krynzel has been a weird combination hitter since being drafted in the first round last year. He hits for a high average, draws walks, runs well, and strikes out a ton. Not a pattern you see a lot, but it's working for him. If he develops a little more power, he'll be a nice outfielder for the Brew Crew. While I try not to get too excited about guys with little experience, Jason Belcher torched the rookie leagues last year as a catcher showing good patience and power.

Nick Neugebauer should be reason enough to buy season tickets behind home plate for 2002. The kid throws in triple digits with a 91 MPH slider. He has Hall of Fame stuff and Nuke Laloosh control. He walked more than a hitter per inning over the past two years before refining his mechanics this year and rounding into form. He blew away the Reds in his ML debut and shouldn't ever return to Indianapolis. He's got a higher ceiling than Ben Sheets.

Ruben Quevedo was acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline. He didn't get as much talk in Chicago amidst all the other arms, but he's got major-league talent. He throws in the low 90s with a nice complimentary breaking ball and changeup. He'll need good control to succeed, but he's almost there.

Jose Mieses and his palmball were making news before his season was wrecked by an arm injury. He's a very intriguing prospect, if he can make it back.

St. Louis Cardinals

You want bare? Not one offensive prospect besides Albert Pujols, already in the majors, was rated higher than a C by John Sickels this past offseason. The Cardinals just don't have much in the way of offensive help coming. Andy Bevins, Jason Woolf, and Shaun Boyd are worth watching, but don't expect much, if anything, from anyone currently trying to hit the ball in the Cardinals system. Rick Ankiel, he of the .650 slugging percentage in the Appy League, just may be the Cards best hitting prospect, but he is, theoretically anyway, a pitcher.

Chris Narveson recently had surgery on his pitching arm, which is always bad news, but was emerging as an elite prospect before that happened. He has good movement, good control, and is more intelligent than most pitchers his age. If he can come back, he'll be good.

Nick Stocks and Jim Journell have similar stuff but are worlds apart in production. Journell will be a major league pitcher due to his makeup, intensity, and work ethic. Stocks is iffy, despite major-league pitches. He doesn't focus all the time and is rattled easily. Oh yeah, and I think Rick Ankiel will make it back...as a pitcher.

about the author

David Cameron has been on a season-long mission to build the perfect prospect. Suggest that he skip the part of the plan where he enters it in "Battlebots" at dac@strikethree.com.