Dave Paisley

It's been an amazing year so far in the American League. We still have Seattle and Minnesota leading all-comers by finding new ways to win almost every day and Texas finding new ways to lose every day.

It looked like the Phillies and Cubs might parallel their feats (the good teams, that is, not the Rangers) for a while, and indeed the Phillies remain on top due to the relative ineptitude of their division rivals. The Cubs, however, have succumbed to the lure of the pack and are now merely one of several NL Central clubs with adequate records. Until a couple of weeks ago the Cubs boasted the best ERA in their league, but a couple of double digit poundings and a five game losing streak has taken care of that. They're still fifth in pitching, though. It's an odd look, though, with Jon Lieber, Kerry Wood and Julian Tavarez all having the good fundamental numbers but Kevin Tapani the poor fundamentals but with the 5-1 record. Oddly enough, Tapani hasn't received better run support than the others - he seems to have just zigged and zagged his way to wins.

As I noted a few weeks ago, it doesn't help that their offense is rather weak. After Sammy Sosa, what is there? Bill Mueller was having a pretty decent year, but he's down for the count with a broken kneecap. Nasty looking accident, that one was, too. Makes me shudder just thinking about it. Rondell White's doing OK as backup to Sammy, as is Julio Zuleta in limited action. Can't fault Eric Young much either, as he's hitting well for a second baseman. After that it becomes a litany of underachievement. Todd Hundley, Damon Buford, Ricky Gutierrez, Gary Mathews Jr. - all soaking up ABs without much in return.

Based on all of this, I don't expect to see the Cubs continue to compete hard in the Central. On the other hand, the competition all have their fatal flaws, too. St Louis is starting to crank out runs (second best NL offensive production behind only Colorado) while maintaining an average pitching staff. But to me it looks fragile and surely they are due for the annual crop of arm failures?

The Astros are right there in the pack, too, but their pitching is definitely suspect still, with Elarton, Lima, Reynolds and Dotel all sporting gaudy ERAs in the 5 or 6-plus range. The offense seems to be doing fine (fourth in the league) with six regulars pounding out .900+ OPS. While I don't expect much out of Vinny Castilla, he seems to be enjoying his first couple of games for the Astros with two doubles and a home run. Of course some of this high offense and poor pitching is due to Enron, but by no means all of it.

The there's Milwaukee who have quietly crept into the mediocre Central race. With hardly any big names they've got the fourth best pitching staff in the NL to go along with the seventh best offense. You'd think that might translate into better than 21-17, but Milwaukee has had a way of making the least of what it's got.

Cincinnati was running with the pack for a while, but have fallen back a bit of late. Still, they're a mere five or so games back and still hovering around the .500 mark anyway. Ninth best offense, thirteenth best pitching so far - not much to write home about, even when (and maybe only if) Ken Griffey Jr. returns.

And then there was Pittsburgh. Four games behind the Reds, it's a long way to pass five teams, even when they're barely winning clubs themselves. With the fourteenth best pitching and fourteenth best offense, there's not much hope, especially with Kris Benson gone, too.

In fact, not only the Central division, but the whole NL looks like it's achieved parity, aka mediocrity, also masquerading as crapitude. Only Pittsburgh, Montreal and the Mets are more than six games behind their division leaders. In contrast, the Mariners have double that lead over their nearest division contender.

So the NL Central will no doubt produce a winner this year. Amazingly enough, one of these six teams will have to finish on top. On the other hand, it doesn't look like the Braves, Mets and Giants are ready to pound any of these teams into submission anytime soon.

So is anyone ready for that Mariners-Brewers World Series yet?

about the author

Dave Paisley doesn't miss the NL at all, especially this year. Give him a DH and pitchers that can throw at guys with impunity and he's happy. Why not berate him roundly for his radical views at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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