Arrgh, It Be a Nor'easter, Matey!

Dave Paisley

In the grand annual division preview, it's time to switch from the senior circuit to the junior. However, I'll handle the AL by moving from east to west. Which means, of course, that we start with that most intense of rivalries -- the Orioles and Devil Rays, who will be scrapping it out for last place once more. I guess there is that other intense rivalry in the division, but maybe we'll leave that till later.

Starting in reverse order of 2000 finish means that we get to quickly breeze through the Devil Rays off-season moves first. Here's the damage:

Tampa Bay Devil Rays	2000 record: 69-92
Traded For	Traded Away
OF Ben Grieve (from Oakland)	P Roberto Hernandez (to Kansas City)
	P Corey Lidle (to Oakland)
Signed	Lost
P Bill Pulsipher (off waivers)	INF Miguel Cairo (released)
P Paul Spoljaric	OF Ozzie Timmons (released)
Re-signed INF Ozzie Guillen	OF Quinton McCracken (released)
	P Dave Eiland (released)
	P Jeff Sparks (released)
	P Jim Morris (released, signed by Dodgers)

There is the one bright spot there, of course, in that they managed to move Roberto Hernandez for Ben Grieve. On the other hand, they did re-sign Ozzie Guillen, and there are no other moves that would suggest an improvement in 2001.

Even Grieve's promise is mostly potential. He should be a useful addition to the outfield, but he's hardly Manny Ramirez. On the other hand I like him better than Johnny Damon (who, by the way, looks like the Mazda "zoom, zoom" kid all grown up, don't you think?) But that's not saying a whole lot.

So don't expect the Rays' miserable major league existence to take a swing for the better this season. Seventy wins looks like an absolute maximum.

2001 looks like a Back to the Future year for the Orioles:

Baltimore Orioles	2000 record: 74-88
Traded For	Traded Away
INF Steve Sisco from Atlanta	INF Jesse Garcia
P John Bale from Toronto	C Jayson Werth
	3B Ryan Minor to Montreal
Signed	Lost
1B David Segui (signed as free agent)	OF Karim Garcia (refused assignment)
P Pat Hentgen (signed as free agent)	OF Trenidad Hubbard (released)
Re-signed C Brook Fordyce to three-year contract	P Mike Mussina (signed with Yankees)
Re-signed LHP B.J. Ryan to one-year contract	P Pat Rapp (signed with Anaheim)
Re-signed LHP John Parrish to one-year contract	LF Albert Belle (arthritic hip, retired)
Re-signed RHP Jay Spurgeon to one-year contract
SS Mike Bordick (signed as free agent)

Re-acquiring David Segui and Mike Bordick seem like the moves of an organization that doesn't know what to do. Picking up Pat Hentgen hardly makes up for losing Mike Mussina, and losing Albert Belle's bat is a blow that's as killing as it was unexpected. Given all that, I'll be surprised if the Orioles manage to finish ahead of the Rays.

Meanwhile over in Toronto, they've certainly had an eventful off-season. Massive wheeling and dealing, followed by whining and crying, and it isn't over yet.

Toronto Blue Jays	2000 record: 83-79
Traded For	Traded Away
P Scott Eyre from White Sox	P Gary Glover
P Steve Parris from Cincinnati	P's Clayton Andrews and Leo Estrella
C Jayson Werth from Baltimore	P John Bale
P's Mike Sirotka and Kevin Beirne, OF Brian Simmons and minor-league pitcher Mike Williams from White Sox	P's David Wells and Matt DeWitt
Signed	Lost
INF Jeff Frye (signed as free agent)	OF Dave Martinez (signed with Atlanta)
LHP Dan Plesac (signed as free agent)	P Frank Castillo (signed with Red Sox)
P Jason Dickson (off waivers)	P Mark Guthrie (signed with Athletics)
P John Sneed (off waivers)	P Steve Trachsel (signed with Mets)
Re-signed 1B Carlos Delgado to four-year contract
Re-signed 2B Mickey Morandini
Re-signed C Darrin Fletcher to three-year contract
Re-signed DH Brad Fullmer to two-year contract
Re-signed OF Jose Cruz to two-year contract
Re-signed P Esteban Loaiza to two-year contract
Re-signed SS Alex Gonzalez to four-year contract

Picking up Steve Parris and Mike Sirotka were smart moves (if you set aside the Sirotka injury for a moment.). David Wells would have helped them more this year, I believe, but was moved at the peak of his value, so who can argue with that? They really didn't lose anyone critical to free agency, although I think Steve Trachsel will thrive with a good team eventually.

On the other hand, they picked up stiffs like Dan Plesac (who proves for the millionth time that lefties can stick around in baseball until their arms literally fall off.) Getting Delgado re-signed early and locking up Fullmer, Fletcher and Cruz were smart moves. Morandini, Frye and Gonzalez I'm not so thrilled about, but the Jays could have made worse moves.

Overall, they're a better team, but still not in the class of the two teams they trailed last year - the Red Sox and Yankees. And speaking of those Sox...

Boston Red Sox	2000 record: 85-77
Traded For	Traded Away
INF Chris Stynes from Cincinnati	INF Donnie Sadler and OF Michael Coleman
Signed	Lost
OF Manny Ramirez (signed as free agent)	1B Rico Brogna (signed with Atlanta)
P David Cone (signed as free agent)	INF/OF Izzy Alcantara (released)
P Frank Castillo (signed as free agent)	OF Bernard Gilkey (signed with St. Louis)
P Hideo Nomo (signed as free agent)	OF Midre Cummings (signed with Arizona)
P Hipolito Pichardo (option picked up)	P Jeff Fassero (signed with Cubs)
P Kent Mercker (signed as free agent)	P Ramon Martinez (option declined)
P Rod Beck (option picked up)	P Rheal Cormier (signed with Philadelphia)
Re-signed P Pete Schourek	P Tom Gordon (signed with Cubs)
Re-signed P Tim Wakefield to two-year contract

Quite the spending spree they went on. After years of punchless outfield, they now have Manny Ramirez to add to Carl Everett. Add in the still developing Trot Nixon with Troy O'Leary as a fourth stringer, and the Red Sox have an outfield that can hold its own with any team.

Another Red Sox weak spot of late has been the pitching. Sure, they keep finishing in the leaders in ERA, but injuries and general flakiness have plagued the staff on and off for years. Last year Jeff Fassero and Ramon Martinez flirted with decency on occasion, but the Sox really lacked depth behind Pedro Martinez.

2001 could be different, but the guys they've brought in all have question marks, too. Does David Cone really have anything left? Was last season a fluke for Hideo Nomo? Is Kent Mercker really recovered from a cerebral hemorrhage? Can Pete Schourek still pitch? Can Rolando Arrojo and Time Wakefield bounce back? These aren't questions you ant to be asking about your #2 to #5 starters.

So the Sox pitching roster is in complete upheaval after Martinez and Lowe, but they've patched together quality pitching in the past, and I suspect pitching coach Joe Kerrigan will do it again. Will it be enough to catch the Yankees? I think we all know the answer to that, but let's take a look at the team we all love to hate first:

New York Yankees	2000 record: 87-74
Signed	Lost
Re-signed OF Paul O'Neill	OF Jose Canseco (option declined)
C Joe Oliver (signed as free agent)	INF Jose Vizcaino (signed with Houston)
OF Glenallen Hill (option picked up)	OF Roberto Kelly (signed with Colorado)
P Brian Boehringer (signed as free agent)	OF Ryan Thompson (released)
P Mike Mussina (signed as free agent)	P David Cone (signed with Boston)
Re-signed INF Luis Sojo	P Denny Neagle (signed with Colorado)
Re-signed P Dwight Gooden	P Jason Grimsley (waived)
Re-signed P Ramiro Mendoza to one-year contract	P Jeff Nelson (signed with Seattle)

In the loss column, the only major blow was losing Jeff Nelson. Apparently satisfied with four World Series rings, Nelson opted to go help his adopted home team (Seattle) to reach the same goal. Canseco, Vizcaino, Kelly, Neagle, Grimsley? Buh-bye...

On the addition side, they landed one of the free-agent plums -- Mike Mussina, who more than makes up for the loss of Cone/Neagle. Add Clemens and Pettitte it's a powerful top three. The rotation will apparently fill out with Gooden and/or Boehringer (both on the comeback trail) or Mendoza moving to the rotation. The bullpen will suffer for losing Nelson, but still, with Rivera closing for $10M a year it won't be easy to beat the Yanks late in games.

As for the offense, Posada, Jeter, Williams and Justice the Yanks have a solid core, with Martinez and Knoblauch capable support. Even an aging Paul O'Neill and a crappy Scott Brosius don't spoil the fun too much. The team is starting to fray around the edges a bit, and while I can easily see them winning the division, the days of World Series glory are over.

In summary, I see the Red Sox and Yankees struggling to get over ninety wins, and I expect the Yankees to have a slight edge. Toronto could challenge them both, especially if they get something nice as compensation for the Wells/Sirotka fiasco. The Orioles and Devil Rays will be out of contention by about April 15, though.

about the author

Dave Paisley is currently appearing on Broadway in his one-man show, "F%&#! F*$%!: The Carl Everett Story." Don't mention the New York Times' review at drdjp@strikethree.com.