Baseballhead:
East, But (Barely) Not Least

Michael Cox

Back like bacon (sorry, Canadian joke), it's Baseballhead, where thanks to Mother Nature we're shaken, not stirred this week. (Note to self: if the Big One hits, try not to be alone in the shower like this time.)

In the second of our six-part preseason prediction potpourri, we turn our attention to the NL East, where like their sister AL division, there's a sharp division between the teams who succeed year after year and those who spend the offseason trying to make clever TV commercials. Unfortunately, in the NL East that dividing line is much higher up. Let's get right to the meat 'n' taters as Casey Kasem helps us count down:

5. Philadelphia Phillies.

With the right front-office staff (i.e., one that doesn't think Adam Sandler's humor is "too cerebral"), the Phils could have started a youth-centered push. That wasn't the case, however, and the team has managed to do the practically impossible this offseason: make themselves the laughingstock of the Senior Circuit without even playing a game.

To a pitching staff that wasn't too bad last year, even after dumping Curt Schilling, Ed Wade added Jose Mesa, Ricky Bottalico, and Rheal Cormier. My theory is that Wade thinks with enough bad pitchers, fans won't single one out for merciless abuse. You'd think Wade would know his city a little better than that -- there's more than enough abuse to go around. Hmmm...which Brian Hunter is worse? Let's find out once and for all by hiring them both! (Hint: it's the thinner one.)

Mind you, this team could surprise everyone and win 78, even 80 games. But that's highly unlikely, with so many candidates for the All-Run-Out-Of-Town-On-A-Rail Team. It's more likely that the Phillies earn the Peter Angelos Memorial Train Wreck Award. Yes, I know Angelos isn't dead...

4. Montreal Expos.

It was tough choosing between the 'Spos and the Fish for the four slot, because both are young teams who could surprise (but neither enough to seriously contend) and who have made some interesting moves. For Montreal, the biggest question remains: did they totally suck the Cardinals into the Fernando Tatis deal? All evidence points to Tatis regaining his form this year, while other, different evidence points to Dustin Hermanson stinking on ice in a Cards jersey.

On the downside, Hideki Irabu is still toting a Japanese-to-French phrasebook, just in case fans start referring to him as un crapaud graisse. The team is also prepared to stage the Tim Raines Farewell Tour, probably not realizing most of the fans have forgotten the original "Rock" was ever an Expo.

But hey -- they'll have English radio this year!

3. Florida Marlins.

Okay, the Marlins did damn well for a low-budget team last season -- well enough to be adopted by all the same people who picked the A's to win the AL West for the past four years, then claimed a moral victory when they stole the division last year. Of course, no one's crazy enough to pick the Fish for anything more than an above-.500 season, but if they were in the AL West...

What's more, the Marlins did it primarily on the backs of their pitchers, utterly foiling all the Fantasy Preview Rotisserie Picks magazines who wanted to use the headline, "John Henry's Hammers." So they signed sentimental favorite Charles Johnson, virtually doubling their offensive production. Also, some of the young lineup is due to improve.

Will the offense pull their weight? Is the pitching as good as they appeared last year? Will Henry again be able to personally greet every fan in the stands? Signs point to "maybe."

2. New York Mets.

You see, Steve Phillips was so enamored with the new office assistant that he plumb forgot to make any substantial moves. Mike Hampton left, and the gap was filled with Kevin Appier? Mike Bordick turned out to be a temporary fill-in after all, and the Flushing faithful will return to their regularly scheduled Rey Ordonez outs. In an apparent attempt to keep Al Leiter happy, the team brought brother Mark to play beside him. And Darren Bragg? I'm not sure precisely who let the dogs out, but they messed all over the yard.

But wait -- just in time to get fans (read: season ticket holders) excited, the team grabbed...no, wait, that was Tsuyoshi Shinjo, who was no great shakes in Japan. Never mind.

Keep in mind that this isn't exactly a gutted club -- Al Leiter, Mike Piazza and Robin Ventura aren't exactly chopped liver, and Benny Agbayani isn't beef tongue -- but lest we all forget, they only had the ninth-best regular-season record in MLB as it was. So, we're still looking at a substantial downgrade from first-class to coach. Ooo, but if they're in contention by Independence Day, expect to see some big moves to keep those higher-priced Shea Stadium seats full of New York asses (no pun intended, honest).

1. Atlanta Braves.

Excuse me while I yawn. The funny thing is, though, that as consistently good as the Braves have been for half a generation now, I can't bring myself to dislike them as much as I do the Yankees. It's partly the owner thing, I guess -- try as he might, Ted Turner can't bring himself to the level of blowhardosity that Steinbrenner manages so effortlessly. Perhaps it's the fact that we don't see Tom Glavine in peanut butter commercials all winter, or endless repetition of Bobby Cox showing kids how to play stickball (although I'd take Torre over Cox in an, er, New York minute).

But most of all, I think it's the fact that the Braves keep doing it without making big, flashy moves. They have developed the team's core, and know when to rotate the tires, so to speak, like this offseason when they didn't attempt to re-sign Andres Galarraga. They have never been afraid to play youngsters, turning over their lineup more often than Bud Selig asks Steinbrenner for revenue-sharing. The Glavine-Maddux-Smoltz rotation core has been a constant, although apparently they don't really need to (Smoltz is getting a little close to being tagged "injury-prone").

Barring the unthinkable (e.g., Maddux' optometrist gets his prescription wrong; people start being nice to John Rocker), consistency will again succeed, even as it bores most of us all to hell.

about the author

Michael Cox would like you to know he loves the good folk of New York, who are generally wonderful people who would never think of throwing things at ballplayers and swearing. Insult his mother at mc@strikethree.com.