Heartland Hubris

Matt Bruce

Choose your battles wisely. In most cases that maxim is the key to long-term survival: people spend a lot more capital when they think they can win than when the chances are slim. That explains why teams in the NL Central, baseball's worst division, did more to their rosters than the teams in the NL West.

It doesn't explain why the moves themselves were so uninspired. Two of the offseason's biggest trades involved St. Louis and Houston. One columnist described this deals as the winter's best trades, and they were -- for the other teams involved.

The Cardinals unloaded Fernando Tatis and Britt Reames to Montreal for Dustin Hermanson and Steve Kline. Tatis did have a dreadful second half in 2000, slipping from .359/.464/.709 before his injury to .204/.340/.389 in the second half. Even so, his career OPS is .836 and he's just 25 years old. In three seasons, Hermanson has seen his ERA inflate from 3.13 to 4.20 to 4.77 even as his strikeout totals fell from 154 to 145 to 94. My big, bold prediction for 2001 is that the unheralded Reames will out-pitch him.

For all that's wrong with the Cardinals -- poor moves, poor handling of young pitchers -- they're still the division champs and they still have Mark McGwire. They remain the team to beat.

The Astros had a terrible season in 2000 and gave away the store in their offseason deal with Detroit. Mitch Meluskey hit .300/.401/.487 last year, not bad for a 27-year-old catcher, but apparently showed insufficient respect to his elders. Roger Cedeno posted a .398 OBP and stole 25 bases but had the misfortune to play for a team loaded in the outfield. Great trade bait? The best Houston could get was Brad Ausmus and two middle relievers.

Ausmus put up mediocre individual numbers with the Astros in 1997-98. He turns 32 in April; his career numbers are .263/.338/.370. But Bagwell and Biggio like him. Who knows why, maybe he's just a good drinking buddy. Word throughout baseball is he's a genuinely great guy and working with nice people can't be overrated.

All the same, is he the cause or the excuse? This year, Houston's veterans will snap back if only because of regression to the mean. Lance Berkman and Richard Hidalgo will become household names and the pitchers will finally adjust (sort of) to Enron Field. In one of the smear campaigns that life is so full of, don't be surprised if, five years and two or three playoff appearances from now, the party line is that 2000 was all Meluskey's fault.

Yeah right. Biggio's struggles and injury were both Meluskey's fault. Jose Lima was Meluskey's fault (that one's actually plausible). As the talking heads crow about baseball is a team game, all Meluskey can do will be to keep Detroit in playoff contention. But that's just baseball, and I'll take it in a minute if that means the game goes on.

Life's soap opera continues in Cincinnati, where last year announcer Marty Brennaman famously told Junior Griffey, "I'll be here after you're gone." (Marty is no spring chicken, so this one isn't beyond dispute, as actuarial estimates go.) Will Barry Larkin hang on long enough to play with the hot young outfield prospects when the new stadium opens in 2003? Can Sean Casey rebound from a disappointing (by his standards) season?

Does Bob Boone know how to fill out a lineup card now? Will Deion Sanders -- no. I just can't. This is a team that has so much going for it, but between Boone and Sanders and the long-term outmaking potential of a Gookie-to-Pokey double-play combination, I can only imagine a string of second-place finishes on the order of those teams Pete Rose managed in the 1980s.

Second place would be such a coup for the Brewers or Pirates. Unfortunately, Jeffrey Hammonds at sea level is far worse than Jeffrey Hammonds a mile high. Derek Bell is far worse than John Vander Wal. The Brewers and Pirates are far worse than the three teams they'll be staring up at.

I can't let the Bell-Vander Wal flap go just yet. Check their numbers and you tell me which one deserves to start. Vander Wal's comments were a bad PR move but Bell outdid him in the department of asinine. Somebody slap him for me and remind him that a spot in the starting lineup is not a sinecure.

This brings us to the Cubs. They're not going to win anything, nor is the Tribune Company interested in trying. I'm as big a fan of Matt Stairs as anyone, not to mention Tom Gordon for his magical 1998 season, but their problems are deeper. Ironically, their biggest step in the right direction, not overpaying for Mark Grace, was also the biggest indication that they're not even pretending to contend.

We move west with Gracie, where pretending to contend is exactly what Arizona will do this year. You don't cry bankruptcy if you intend to sign a light-hitting veteran who will block your young talent. Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson are great at the top of the rotation, but who will hit? The marquis names are all a year older and a year worse. But they're still the Snakes and they still have Jay Bell and Matt Williams around to give the fans warm fuzzies.

My second bold prediction is that Arizona will finish dead last in its division. That's no sure thing since those Padres who aren't Ryan Klesko will have trouble doing anything offensive themselves. Still, give me a rotation full of overachieving under-30s (Sterling Hitchcock, Adam Eaton, Brian Tollberg, Matt Clement), backed by Trevor Hoffman and playing in extreme pitcher's park, and I'll give you enough 4-2 wins to make a run at 78-84.

On the other extreme, as parks go, is Colorado. Will Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton earn their money? Will casual fans have an idea just how well they're doing? Nobody knows but everyone has to give the Rockies a shot.

Everyone has to give the Dodgers a shot every year. Like the Cubs and Yankees, they're loaded with money. Like the Yankees, they'll spend it, just not very well. Now they find themselves at odds with Gary Sheffield, whose demand to be traded to one of three particular teams won't exactly help his market value.

Even so, this is a team that won 86 games in 2000 despite disappointing seasons from Eric Karros and Shawn Green. Watch those two. Watch the growth of Adrian Beltre and the consistency of the back of the rotation. Most of all, wait and see what happens to Sheffield.

San Francisco has a sticky situation with its own superstar, Barry Bonds, who wants to know if the Giants want him for the rest of his career. Either way, he's a Giant this year and he's pretty good. Jeff Kent is also a Giant and he's also pretty good. If they pick their battles wisely enough to go after opponents instead of each other, then their team should be favored to hold off Colorado.

about the author

Matt Bruce is currently touring the country, spreading the gospel of Ferguson Jenkins. Ask about the replica spittoon at the $100 donation level at mb@strikethree.com.