Baseballhead:
East Feast

Michael Cox

Here we is at Baseballhead again, where we'd let Jon Stewart host any old time, but for God's sake keep both Eminem and Elton John away from us.

This week we kick off our series of divisional predictions with the AL West, where more money is thrown around each year than the trading pit of the New York Stock Exchange. It must be true -- you just read it, right? Well, the spree continued prior to the 2001 season when the Red Sox inked Manny Ramirez, the Yanks snagged Mike Mussina, and the Orioles decided to relive their glory days with Mike Bordick.

How will the complexion of the Grand Old Division change with the offseason moves? Read on -- here are my predictions, in reverse order:

5. Baltimore Orioles

Hands up, everyone who believed for even a minute that Peter Angelos was serious about giving his young players regular starts. Okay Mr. Gammons, you can put your hand down now.

The projected lineup for Balto in 2001 is as old as ever, including Bordick and "new" 1B David "I Finally Found Me a Sucker" Segui joining returning "favorites" Delino Deshields, Jeff Conine, and the "evergreen" Cal Ripken Jr. Hey, if Albert Belle continues to have hip problems ("I've f%#@ing fallen and I can't f*#&ing get up!"), maybe Cal can DH!

The rotation has a couple of spots for new faces, but that only serves to reveal what the problem's been all along: the farm's been plowed under. The old guys aren't good, the young guys aren't good -- it's unfortunate that the Ravens are going to get all the attention this summer.

4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Team Without a Plan, Year Four. At least they ended up with Ben Grieve in the three-way deal that sent Johnny Damon from K.C. to Oakland. Unfortunately, that's the only kind of three-way anyone who identifies themselves as a Devil Ray will ever be offered.

The Rays are a team that could stand a little youth movement, especially once they can clear out Fred McGriff and Vinny Castilla. The past idea that bringing in "name" sluggers would fill seats has been revealed to be a sham, so the winds of change are blowing through St. Pete. If the Rays can stick with their young players and resist the temptation to coax Greg Luzinski out of retirement, they may have a shot at being another 2000 Oakland A's.

That and free beer will sell out Tropicana Field.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays are a puzzling, puzzling operation. On one hand, they make reasonably shrewd deals like the Shawn Green/Raul Mondesi swap and the Dan Plesac/Tony Batista swap. Then they send David Wells to Chicago despite the fact that even Toronto's mime community were frantically gesturing at Mike Sirotka's injured pitching arm.

Perhaps the other shoe still hasn't dropped in that deal and the agreement has a hidden clause specifying that if Sirotka can't start Opening Day, the Jays get Frank Thomas. Hey, then at least Carlos Delgado wouldn't have to worry about keeping his playing time up at first base. No, in general the Jays have spent money wisely, relying on youngsters to fill in the gaps.

However, they've yet to get consistent performances by their young pitchers, and it will remain to be seen whether Buck Martinez manages to fire up his staff or frighten the hell out of them. Firey managers are all well and good, but would you want Ray Knight to run your team? I rest my case.

2. Boston Red Sox

Why can I not type a "1" up there instead of a "2"? Call it a mental block, call it the easy way out, but I just get the yips whenever I seriously think of the Sox' chances of usurping power. Maybe I've just seen a few too many seasons go south when the fall Fenway winds begin blowing in. Maybe it's the percodan. We may never know.

The Sox, preparing to fight for a new park and find new owners at the same time, made a passel of offseason moves designed to position themselves as what Hollywood would call a "glamor property." Took the top position player (forget about A-Rod's future, I'm talking now) off the market and with a single signing obtained more production than entire Sox outfields have had in the recent past.

They took a chance on David Cone and Hideo Nomo, and more importantly, performed addition by subtraction when they cut bait on Rheal Cormier and Jeff Fassero. You know, I'd be willing to change my prediction upon Carl Everett's successful completion of an accredited anger-management program.

1. New York Yankees

Actually, looking at the Yanks' projected lineup, there isn't really much reason not to pick them in first place. There is no other team, save the Braves, that has the kind of stable, quality rotation I see in the Bronx. Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, and yes, even Chuck Knoblauch, have years of production left to give. Just send Knoblauch to get anti-yip tips from some of the PGA seniors, he'll be okay.

I just read a Baseball Prospectus writer trying to explain that the Yanks have holes in their lineup. As a wise man once said, well, duh. Any team who employs Scott Brosius is buying themself a hole. The aging of Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez (the latter of whom admittedly didn't have far to fall) may be a harbinger, but if the problem persists, rest assured that by August there will be at least some cork stuffed in those holes.

Like they did last season, the Yankees will rely on their rotation (now new and improved with lemon-fresh Mussina) to carry them through offensive slumps. Paul O'Neill could very well recover, and Gatorade tubs everywhere may be fearing him once again by June. Even if Knoblauch has developed a Mackey Sasser-type mental problem with his throwing, using the DH slot for a leadoff hitter isn't the nightmare some folks make it out to be.

Then again, Steinbrenner could be insulting Orlando Hernandez by May and Williams could injure himself in a freak guitar accident. We'll see.

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Disagree? Don't be a wuss -- throw down the proverbial gauntlet at mc@strikethree.com. Michael Cox could use a new gauntlet or two.