2001 NL Rookie Watch

Jason Michael Barker

When last we spoke, you and I, we looked ahead to the incoming crop of American League rookies for the 2001 season. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to deduce that the National League is left for today, featuring players such as Olympic hero Ben Sheets and college star Xavier Nady. And that's a good thing, because our latest demographics research indicates a lack of rocket scientists among regular readers.

We begin in San Francisco, where a pair of rookies could make an impact this season. The first is RHP Kurt Ainsworth, who turned in a fine season at AA Shreveport in 2000 -- 158 innings, 138 hits, 130 strikeouts and a 3.30 ERA. Giants' GM Brian Sabean said he expected Ainsworth to begin the 2001 season at AAA, but a good spring could land him in the starting rotation come April. A first-round pick in 1999, Ainsworth throws in the mid-90's and has shown no ill effects of the Tommy John surgery that cost him a year at Louisiana State -- in fact, he throws harder now than he did before the operation.

Competing for the third base job this spring in Giants camp (perhaps even as you read this) is Pedro Feliz, who brings a remarkably similar skill set to the table as that of Russ Davis, the man whose job he's trying to take. Both hit for good power, but don't control the strikezone and certainly won't remind anyone of Brooks Robinson at the hot corner. Feliz hit .298 with 33 homers at AAA last season, but walked just 30 times on his way to a .337 OBP. He'll have to keep that batting average up to be productive, but his power looks for real. At the very least, he's younger than Davis and has a chance to improve.

The Rockies are always looking for pitching, and they think they've found a future closer in Craig House. House throws in the mid-90's with a nasty slider, then helps himself even further with a deceptive windup that keeps the ball out of the hitter's view. It's hard to get a read on this guy because he's pitched so little in his professional career, but so far the results -- 118 strikeouts and 55 hits allowed 80.1 minor league innings -- have been impressive.

When the Padres drafted slugger Xavier Nady (is that a great name or what?) out of the University of California in the second round last June, most felt he had first round talent. He slipped due to concerns over his bonus demands, but the Padres signed him in time to give him on at-bat in the majors late in the year -- he singled. Nady, who played third base in college but will most likely move to the outfield because of top prospect Sean Burroughs, hit .329 with 19 homers and 34 walks in 207 at-bats his senior year. He may well begin the year in the minors to adjust to the wood bat, but San Diego could use his pop in the outfield.

Many have already awarded Milwaukee RHP Ben Sheets the NL Rookie of the Year award -- I have my own favorite to be named below -- but at the very least he's essentially guaranteed a spot in the Brewers' rotation heading into spring training. There's nothing not to like about him, really. Splitting time between AA and AAA last year, he posted a 2.40 ERA with 132 hits allowed in 153.2 innings and a good 119:56 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and after his performance for Team USA in the Olympics, nobody doubts his ability to pitch under pressure.

Some people called Corey Patterson's AA campaign a disappointment because he hit just .261, but what they're missing is that he doubled his walk rate over the previous season and hit 22 homers in AA at age 20. I don't expect him to double his walk rate again next season, but if he continues to improve his strikezone judgement he could be primed for a huge year. As it stands I expect the Cubs to start him in the minors, but when they're 15 games out in mid-June, why not call the kid up and see what he can do?

Speaking of outfielders, Montreal has a pair who should see some time in 2001. The first is Milton Bradley, who took over in left field late last year when the Expos trade Rondell White. Bradley isn't technically a rookie -- he had 154 at-bats last season -- but 2001 will likely be his first full season. A consistent .300 hitter in the minors, he hasn't developed as much as power as was expected, but should be a good gap hitter who draws just enough walks to keep his OBP respectable.

Brad Wilkerson is just about the opposite type of player -- whereas Bradley is a great athlete with the tools scouts love, Wilkerson hits for power and controls the strikezone. He hit 18 homers and 47 doubles in 441 at-bats between AA and AAA, and also drew 87 walks. That sort of plate discipline is almost unheard of for a player in the Expos' minor league system, so hopefully they realize what they've got. Wilkerson turns 24 this season and doesn't have star potential, but he could help out if either Peter Bergeron or Bradley falters this season.

Last but not least, and my pick for National League Rookie of the Year: Philadelphia's Jimmy Rollins. What does it take to win Rookie of the Year? Both talent and opportunity. I know I'm going to hear from some of you who doubt Rollins' talent, but there's no question that the opportunity is there. The Phillies have known since last season that Rollins was going to be their starting shortstop on opening day 2001, and that still appears to be the case barring a horrific spring. He put together good all-around numbers in AAA last season at age 21: .274 average, 11 triples, 12 homers, 24 steals and 49 walks. Before you laugh, remember that those numbers only seem marginal because we're blessed with shortstops the likes of Rodriguez, Jeter and Garciaparra these days. Ten years ago most teams would have killed for numbers like that from their shortstop. These days, quite a few teams still would.

about the author

Think Jason Michael Barker left somebody out? Then by all means, let him hear about it at jmb@strikethree.com. Please note that anyone writing in to suggest Dante Bichette or Vinny Castilla will be given 100 lashes with a wet noodle, so don't say you weren't warned, you big trouble maker.

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