Home Cookin'

Dave Paisley

Are you as bored as I am with another yawner of an arbitration season? As I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, even the losers are winners here. So Kevin Millwood gets a measly $3.1M instead of the $3.9M he asked for. It's still a 600% raise. Then there's the endless round of split-the-difference deals where both sides would rather lose a little than go for broke -- which as I just mentioned isn't exactly "broke" as we mere mortals understand it.

So with pitchers and catchers still thinking about which Hawaiian shirts to pack for spring training, I thought I'd focus on some little oddities that I came across in researching last week's article. And yes, it does involve numbers.

If you cast your mind all the way back to last week (or click on the link below to refresh your memory), you'll remember that I attempted to rank major league pitching staffs by some kind of rational method. Call me crazy, but I tried. The one thing that stood out as I did it, though, was that how one adjusts for the effects of which park players spend half their season in makes a huge difference. Not just in applying the correction, but in which correction to apply. Face it - playing in Colorado is death on a pitcher's ERA. We all know that. But if the difference in home and road numbers truly was just due to the park, you'd expect to see the effect be comparable between the home and visiting teams, wouldn't you?

If it wasn't comparable, you might attribute the difference to the home team somehow knowing how to play to the park's differences. Or that some pitchers or players are more suited to a particular park. Then there's the home cooking factor - all home teams do better, relatively speaking, than road teams.

Here are the basic home and road ERAs for American League teams last season.

It's easy to see the home cookin' effect from the averages. The named home teams averaged a 4.73 ERA against a 5.20 ERA for their opponents. Looking at the named team's road games (the third number column), these same teams that managed only a 5.11 ERA on the road, while their opponents, now on their own home turf, improved to 4.68. The numbers are almost mirror images, as one might expect, with the anomalies coming mostly from interleague play and some minor differences in innings pitched.

What does all this mean, you ask? Well, it actually takes even longer to tell this tale. Now I've demonstrated home cookin', I'm going to make it magically disappear from the park factor picture. Here's the American League again, but this time, I've boiled the numbers down a bit. The first two columns are separate park factors for the home team and their opponents. The next two columns are those same factors adjusted for home advantage by dividing by the appropriate home or opponent average park factor. Finally, I've taken those last two columns and divided the home park factor by the opponent's park factor. This final number is a measure of how well the home team was able to perform better at home relative to how well their opponents did.

Dizzy yet? Well, you should be, so don't let that deter you. Maybe another scotch on the rocks wouldn't hurt, either (what, don't tell me they didn't tell you that in math class!)

So what does all of this tell us? Let's work our way down the list. The teams at the top are those who pitch much better at home than expected and whose opponents pitch much worse, working our way down to the teams that pitch worse at home, but whose opponents pitch much better.

Top of the list are the surprising Texas Rangers. Surprising because their pitching sucks. The Rangers themselves are about average pitching 9% better at home than on the road. Their opponents, though pitch 28% worse in Arlington than back in their home parks. Here's one of those odd situations where "park effect" is radically different for the home team relative to the road teams.

Next anomaly is the Twins, who appear to get no benefit from home advantage. Let's face it, you played in a dump like the Metrodome, you wouldn't feel at home either. Opposing teams come into the giant mushroom and die, though - pitching 31% worse in the dome than back home. Maybe it's all those outfielders losing sight of the ball against the roof?

Continuing the parade are the Orioles (has anyone else noticed that this list is headed by some pretty rank pitching?) who pitch like demons at home, well, relatively speaking. They're followed by the White Sox, who pitch identically well on the road as at home, which is curious, but not as curious as the fact that their opponents come in and get pelted for 28% more runs in Comiskey than back home.

These examples alone are enough to cast doubt on the notion that there is one generic factor that captures the effects of the venue on how teams score.

I'll leave the remainder of the list for you to peruse except for one look at the most pitching friendly park in the American League- Safeco Field. The Mariners enjoyed a stunning advantage pitching in Safeco, pitching 26% better there that they did on the road. Their opponents managed a similar feat, pitching 13% better. When the generic home advantage (described above) is factored in, though, the park turns out to be roughly neutral. Interesting.

OK, those of you who set your snooze alarms for the end of the article -- it's time to wake up. Finals are at 8 am tomorrow.

about the author

There's nothing Dave Paisley likes more than a nice home cooked meal. Wait, that's not right. nevertheless, home cooking is pretty good. Why not send your favorite recipes to drdjp@strikethree.com.

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