'Tis the Season

Dave Paisley

Yes, it certainly is the season of acrimony and antagonism. But enough about the carping about George Bush's inauguration, we're talking about arbitration season. This is the time of year when budding superstars get to ask for the moon and the clubs that own them get to tell them why they're full of it. Then, when the dust clears, they all kiss and make up and go off to spring training. Well, most of the time, anyway.

Before we delve into some of the more interesting arbitration cases, though, here are some basic arbitration facts:

1. There are 63 players in the arbitration process
2. The average 2000 salary of arbitration eligible players was $1,045,000
3. The average salary being offered to these players is $2,012,000, an average raise of 92%
4. The average salary being requested by these players is $2,722,000, a 160% raise
5. Even if you lose, you win.
6. Even if you win, you lose.

Now for some details. Here are the five players who asked for the top percentage raise:

Player	Team	Pos	2000 Salary	Offered	Asked	Off/ 2000	Asked/ 2000	Asked/ Off
Eric Milton	Min	p	285K	2M	2.95M	602%	935%	48%
John Rocker	Atl	p	290K	1.9M	2.98M	555%	928%	57%
Javier Vazquez	Mon	p	280K	2M	2.85M	614%	918%	43%
Kevin Millwood	Atl	p	420K	3.1M	3.9M	638%	829%	26%
Glendon Rusch	NYM	p	270K	1.5M	2.35M	456%	770%	57%

Interestingly, they're all pitchers, which makes sense because pitchers can suddenly come out of nowhere and start playing at a higher level. Plus, if they proved to be valuable before they hit arbitration, that first arbitration year can be a big jump. Position players rarely come from nowhere like that. OK, pop quiz: How many people would like a 1,000% raise this year? OK... looks like a full house. Well, not even Eric Milton will get that much, even if he wins the arbitration lottery. But I'm sure we'd all settle for a mere 935%, wouldn't we?

Looking at this bunch, their clubs are offering roughly 600% raises, while the players are seeking 800% to 900%. Who's to say who's right here? This is simply a case of these players getting close to what they're worth, and even then, someone like Kevin Millwood comes cheap. If not for an off year last season he could be in the 6-10M range easily.

Win or lose, it doesn't appear that there'll be too much friction between these players and their clubs given that the players will get a huge payday regardless and a promise of even bigger ones down the road if they continue to perform.

Let's move on the top dollar values asked for.

Player	Team	Pos	2000 Salary	Offered	Asked	Off/ 2000	Asked/ 2000	Asked/ Off
Derek Jeter	NYY	ss	10M	14.25M	18.5M	43%	85%	30%
Mariano Rivera	NYY	p	7.25M	9M	10.25M	24%	41%	14%
Andruw Jones	Atl	of	3.7M	6.4M	8.2M	73%	122%	28%
Quilvio Veras	Atl	2b	3M	3.4M	4.5M	13%	50%	32%
Deivi Cruz	Det	ss	1.975M	3.1M	3.95M	57%	100%	27%

This is headed, of course, by Derek Jeter, who could well win his case and get $18.5M awarded in arbitration. A lot will depend on how his 2000 production will be viewed, as it returned to the merely excellent for a shortstop rather than the spectacular. Mariano Rivera, another perennial Yankee arbitration vulture stands poised to scoop up his $10.25M, making Steinbrenner pay out almost $30M in arbitration salaries, more than several teams will spend this season on their entire rosters.

The Braves are also on the hook, but to a much lesser extent. I'm guessing they'll lose the Andruw Jones case but win the Quilvio Veras one if it gets that far. Deivi Cruz? Forget it. I'm appalled he'll get at least 3.1M whatever happens.

Next up: the biggest percentage disparity between what was asked for and what was offered:

Player	Team	Pos	2000 Salary	Offered	Asked	Off/ 2000	Asked/ 2000	Asked/ Off
Travis Lee	Phi	1b	500K	800K	1.6M	60%	220%	100%
Osvaldo Fernandez	Cin	p	500K	600K	1.2M	20%	140%	100%
Wayne Gomes	Phi	p	390K	700K	1.2M	79%	208%	71%
Rolando Arrojo	Bos	p	340K	1.475M	2.45M	334%	621%	66%
Brian Meadows	KC	p	360K	1.55M	2.55M	331%	608%	65%

This is a potential minefield for any club. The worst disparity is a 100% difference, for both Travis Lee and Osvaldo Fernandez. Lee is an interesting case. He's the can't miss prospect who hasn't been able to quite find a groove. Even at the 1,6M he's asking it wouldn't be out of line to expect him to be worth that much. The rest are a bunch of risky pitchers, because of either youth or injury, who probably value themselves on their potential, while the clubs are valuing them at what they have proved.

The next category is the smallest percentage disparity between what was asked for and what was offered. Here, you wonder why the club doesn't just cave and give the player what they asked for, given the relatively small difference.

Player	Team	Pos	2000 Salary	Offered	Asked	Off/ 2000	Asked/ 2000	Asked/ Off
Scott Hatteberg	Bos	c	695K	1M	1.1M	44%	58%	10%
Mariano Rivera	NYY	p	7.25M	9M	10.25M	24%	41%	14%
Sean Casey	Cin	1b	400K	2.6M	3M	550%	650%	15%
Scott Sullivan	Cin	p	1.1M	1.7M	2.1M	55%	91%	24%
Chris Holt	Det	p	1.125M	1.85M	2.3M	64%	104%	24%

At 1M vs. 1.1M, why not put Scott Hatteberg out of his misery? Little wonder that the two decided to split the difference at 1.05M Tuesday. The same argument applies with Mariano Rivera, who, while being the second highest paid player on the list, is also one the second smallest percentage differential. However, he's dealing with Steinbrenner's lackey, too, so let's not hold our breath, hmmm? I bet he can't wait till free agency. And is it worth haggling over a mere 0.4M for Sean Casey, Scott Sullivan and Chris Holt? Apparently the Reds and Tigers think so.

Finally, what about the clubs who are offering the biggest percentage raises? (Not that the players don't want more, of course...)

Player	Team	Pos	2000 Salary	Offered	Asked	Off/ 2000	Asked/ 2000	Asked/ Off
Kevin Millwood	Atl	p	420K	3.1M	3.9M	638%	829%	26%
Javier Vazquez	Mon	p	280K	2M	2.85M	614%	918%	43%
Eric Milton	Min	p	285K	2M	2.95M	602%	935%	48%
John Rocker	Atl	p	290K	1.9M	2.98M	555%	928%	57%
Sean Casey	Cin	1b	400K	2.6M	3M	550%	650%	15%

We have the Braves offering Kevin Millwood a 638% raise, the Expos offering Javier Vazquez 614%, the Twins offering 602% to Eric Milton, the Braves 555% to John Rocker and the Reds 550% to Sean Casey. Well, they all seem like pretty good numbers to me, but the players do want 800% and up in most cases.

So there's a quick overview of the numbers behind arbitration. You might want to pin a copy of the list inside your wallet or purse for that next performance review at work...

Dave Paisley was looking for a 1001% raise this year, but is unlikely to see much other than the 1% on the end. Why not commiserate with him at drdjp@strikethree.com.