Thinner Air

Dave Paisley

Well, who would have thought that the Rockies would land two of the top five free-agent pitchers out there this offseason? Not me, that's for sure. But apparently there's something about the clean, cool, Rocky Mountain taste of those Denver greenbacks that first Denny Neagle and now Mike Hampton liked. Or maybe it really is those Denver high schools, where they manage to keep the multiple homicide massacres down to one every other year or so.

Whatever the reason, the Rockies have seriously upgraded their pitching and for the first time in their history we'll get to see what a pretty competent staff can do in the thin air. And really, when you look at what they've done really is quite remarkable. For less money (just) than it would take to sign Alex Rodriguez, they have acquired two starters who are arguably both better than anyone the team has had since it's inception. That's certainly the case with Hampton, more questionable with Neagle, but apart from Darryl Kile and Pedro Astacio, they haven't even had someone close to that good before.

Here's what the Rockies staff did as a team last year, with home and road splits:

Rockies 2000	IP	ERA	H	BB	HR	BB/9	HR/9
Rockies @ Home	739.0	6.06	896	303	133	3.7	1.62
Rockies @ Road	691.0	4.39	672	285	88	3.7	1.15

And here are the numbers for the five guys who started the most games:

Rockies 2000 Home	IP	ERA	H	HR	BB	HR/9	BB/9
Yoshii	67.2	5.85	93	10	16	1.34	2.14
Jarvis	63.2	5.94	82	18	17	2.56	2.42
Astacio	96.1	6.54	117	20	40	1.87	3.75
Bohanon	86.2	6.65	100	14	43	1.46	4.49
Rose	49.0	8.08	66	13	25	2.39	4.59

Rockies 2000 Road	IP	ERA	H	HR	BB	HR/9	BB/9
Bohanon	90.1	2.79	81	10	36	1.00	3.60
Astacio	100.0	4.05	100	12	37	1.08	3.33
Rose	67.2	4.12	64	8	26	1.07	3.48
Yoshii	99.2	5.87	108	22	37	2.00	3.36
Jarvis	51.1	5.96	56	8	16	1.41	2.82

At home, no starter managed an ERA substantially under 6.00. Pretty nasty, although Astacio and Bohanon were certainly effective away from Coors. What's evident from this is that Yoshii and Jarvis have no business in the rotation with ERAs approaching 6.00 on the road. Of course, keeping their home ERAs at 6.00 is some kind of miracle, but I certainly wouldn't pin any championship hopes on them.

I already showed Neagle's numbers in my last article, so I won't bother again, but here are Hampton's three last years:

Hampton Last 3 Seasons	IP	ERA	H	HR	BB	HR/9	BB/9
2000 NY	217.2	3.14	194	10	99	.41	4.10
1999 Hou	239.0	2.90	206	12	101	.45	3.80
1998 Hou	211.2	3.36	227	18	81	.77	3.45

Pretty impressive. Of course, he's pitched in pitcher-friendly parks pretty much his whole career. But he has been at least a fringe Cy Young candidate for the last three years and that's nothing to sneeze at. Just for good measure, here are his home/road splits for the same years.

Hampton H/R Splits Last 3 Seasons	IP	ERA	H	HR	BB	HR/9	BB/9
2000 NY H	132.0	2.05	102	4	58	.27	3.95
2000 NY R	85.2	4.83	92	6	41	.63	4.33
1999 Hou H	141.0	2.49	110	7	50	.45	3.19
1999 Hou R	98.0	3.49	96	5	51	.46	4.68
1998 Hou H	90.2	2.98	100	7	36	.70	3.59
1998 Hou R	121.0	3.64	127	11	45	.82	3.35

What's interesting here is his overall tendency to be much better at home. Of course, the pitchers' parks come into play there, as does the home cooking bias (about 0.30 ERA league wide.) This year's home/road split was enormous but unlikely to be repeated. Another critical factor is that Hampton is a pretty extreme ground ball pitcher who doesn't give up much in the way of longballs. Add in his hitting, which should be pretty spectacular at Coors by any standards, and he may well be worth the money.

So what does all this mean for the Rockies? They slot Hampton and Neagle in at the top of their rotation. Hampton will likely put up a 3.00 ERA on the road and about 4.50 to 5.00 at home, which will actually be extremely respectable without getting the kudos it deserves. Neagle will manage a 6.00/4.00 home/road split for a 5.00 season ERA. Ron Villone, acquired from the Reds, Astacio and Bohanon should round out the rotation nicely.

Overall, the team may give up maybe 150 runs less than it did last year. If the offense can produce (and it had a poor year last year) the Rockies could easily be a pre-season favorite to win the NL West.

But that's what we all thought about the Dodgers two years ago, so let's not get too excited right now...

about the author

Dave Paisley was amazed to find that from Coors Field he could hit a golf ball to Boulder. Just call him John Daly at drdjp@strikethree.com.