Players Signed, Dammit!

Jason Michael Barker

Pardon the headline -- it's just a quick barb at fellow Strikethree.com columnist Dave Paisley, who earlier this week penned a piece titled "Sign Somebody, Dammit!" in response to the utter lack of free agent action. Perhaps taking his advice, both the Padres and Mariners agreed to one-year deals with their respective long-time veteran outfielders, Tony Gwynn and Jay Buhner.

Gwynn is back in San Diego for a 20th season, having turned down more cash from Cleveland and Kansas City. Like you I'm puzzled as to why the Tribe and Royals were interested in his services, aside from the fact that they play in the American League and could have used Gwynn as a DH. Of course, of all the positions on the field -- or off it, in this case -- designated hitter is the easiest to fill by simply dipping into the minors or combing the six-year free agent list.

I hear Roberto Petagine isn't doing anything, for example, other than destroying the Japanese League again. Likewise, I'll bet the Orioles would trade Calvin Pickering for next to nothing. Olympic hero Mike Neill is available, as is Brian Lesher (both of the Seattle farm system last year). A bit more effort could have landed Matt Stairs.

No matter, though, as Gwynn will return to the Padres next season. I have no doubt that he can still hit. Gwynn owns a career .338 average and no fewer than 3108 hits; he hit .323 last year and has never hit below .309 in any full season. The real issue is whether he can stay healthy -- he's never been the most physically fit player, and that extra weight doesn't sit well on a pair of venerable knees with very little cartilage left.

It's not that this is a bad signing for the Padres, though. The contract is only worth a base of $2M, with a ton of incentives built in. Gwynn can earn up to $5.7M if he reaches 600 plate appearances. I don't think he'll get there, but at least the Padres don't have to pay him if he doesn't.

Off the field, San Diego probably recoups the cost of Gwynn's contract because of his fan favorite status. The Padres aren't a very good or exciting team to begin with, but Gwynn is one of the few reasons to head out to the ballpark. I might be overstating the positive effects of this contract, but you can bet there would have been a negative response if the franchise player wound up in Cleveland or Kansas City.

In a similar vein, Jay Buhner and the Mariners agreed to a $1.8M, one-year deal Thursday, keeping the fan favorite in Seattle for a 14th season. Buhner experienced something of a renaissance last season after two injury plagued years -- 26 homers and a .361/.522 line in 112 games.

The addition of Japanese sensation Ichiro Suzuki, known simply as "Ichiro," to Seattle's outfield likely means a reduced role for Buhner, but he thrived last season in that capacity and still hits left-handed pitching quite well. In addition to playing the outfield, he could see some time spelling 1B John Olerud, who hit just .242/.354/.312 against lefties last year. No, that slugging percentage isn't a typo -- Olerud just did his best Ryan Klesko impression last season.

Another player signing this week was Andy Ashby, who inked a three-year deal with the Dodgers. At first glance Ashby seems like a pretty good bet -- throw out his poor start last season, and he's been a an above average starter for basically the last seven seasons, getting the job done with a ton of groundballs and by not allowing many walks.

Look a bit deeper, though, and you'll see something else going on. Check out Ashby's strikeouts per nine innings over the past four seasons, beginning with 1997: 6.5, 6.0, 5.8, 4.8. Now look at his groundball to flyball ratios over the same period: 2.35:1, 2.18:1, 2.01:1, 1.55:1. It doesn't take a great deal of statistical analysis to see that he's on the decline, does it?

The decline has been hidden a bit by his home park in San Diego, which just happens to be of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Of course signing with the Dodgers will allow Ashby to start half his games at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, further masking the decline.

I'm not saying he's going to completely fall apart next season, but at the same time I don't have very much confidence in the long-term success of a pitcher who struck out less than five batters the year prior and whose strikeout rate has been on a sharp decline. Ashby turns 34 next June, and his $22.5M deal might not look so hot in another year or two.

And just when it looked like things were heating up, here come the baseball's winter meetings. Somehow I don't expect much to get done in Dallas, as Scott Boras shows MLB's general managers that he runs the show. The winter meetings must be the idea situation for Boras -- instead of flying around the country with his prized client or forcing teams to come to him one at a time, he's got all the executives in once place.

Like shooting fish in a barrel, eh Scott?

Jason Michael Barker is the fish-in-barrel shooting champion here at Strikethree.com. Why not ask him for a few tips at jmb@strikethree.com.

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